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The Padres are on the shortlist for the league’s most disappointing group in 2023. They got here up shy of the postseason regardless of a star-studded roster that entered the yr with championship aspirations. They’ll make one other run at competing subsequent season, albeit with newfound payroll questions that recommend they’ll in all probability lose the presumptive NL Cy Younger winner and their elite nearer to free company.
Assured Contracts
Manny Machado, 3B: $337MM by 2033 (together with $10MM signing bonus due by Dec. 1)
Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $317MM by 2034
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $250MM by 2033
Joe Musgrove, RHP: $80MM by 2027
Yu Darvish, RHP: $78MM by 2028
Jake Cronenworth, 1B: $78MM by 2030
Robert Suarez, RHP: $36MM by 2027 (contains opt-out after ’25)
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B: $10MM by 2024 (together with buyout of ’25 mutual choice)
Seth Lugo, RHP: $7.5MM participant choice
Matt Carpenter, DH: $5.5MM participant choice
Possibility Selections
Crew holds two-year, $32MM choice on RHP Nick Martinez; if membership declines, Martinez holds two-year, $16MM participant choice
Crew holds two-year, $32MM choice on RHP Michael Wacha; if membership declines, Wacha has respective $6.5MM, $6MM and $6MM participant choices by 2026
RHP Seth Lugo holds $7.5MM participant choice
DH Matt Carpenter holds $5.5MM participant choice
Different Monetary Commitments
Owe $24.5MM to Purple Sox by 2025 as situation of Eric Hosmer commerce
2024 monetary commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo choose out, Carpenter/Martinez choose in): $134.76MMTotal future commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo choose out, Carpenter/Martinez choose in): $1.232 billion
Arbitration-Eligible Gamers (projected salaries by way of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Non-tender candidates: Hill, Nola, Morejón
Free Brokers
A late-September tear towards principally dangerous groups nudged the Padres previous .500. That’s no comfort for a membership that entered the yr as co-favorites within the NL West alongside the Dodgers and a stylish World Collection choose. San Diego had bolstered final yr’s NLCS squad with one other huge contract, signing Xander Bogaerts for 11 years and $280MM. With Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back from final yr’s wrist surgical procedure/PED suspension, every thing was supposed to come back collectively in 2023.
If the group ever actually clicked, it didn’t occur till they had been buried within the standings. As was the case two years in the past, the Padres’ disappointing end got here with studies of inner strife. In 2021, clubhouse discord contributed to San Diego’s determination to dismiss supervisor Jayce Tingler. This yr, studies from The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune solid renewed questions in regards to the locker room — with a reported rift between president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and second-year supervisor Bob Melvin drawing essentially the most consideration.
Because the season wound down, there was some query about whether or not the Preller – Melvin relationship had grow to be untenable. Possession clearly doesn’t imagine that to be the case. After an end-of-season assembly between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the events agreed to maintain the management construction in place. Seidler launched an announcement expressing his “full assist” for that duo; Preller confirmed two days later that Melvin is “going to be (the) supervisor going ahead.”
There might be way more turnover with the roster itself. Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune reported final month that the Friars had been capturing for a participant payroll within the $200MM vary for subsequent season, pointing to a must adjust to MLB’s debt service ratio. That’d seemingly hold them within the higher third of the league however represents a notable reduce. In accordance with Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Friars completed this season with a payroll just below $250MM and had an estimated luxurious tax quantity close to the $293MM last penalization threshold.
That’ll make issues troublesome for Preller and his entrance workplace as they attempt to extra successfully steadiness the roster. San Diego’s participant spending is a bit more manageable than followers may count on given their repeated top-of-the-market strikes. Machado ($13MM) and Tatis ($11MM) are taking part in on comparatively mild salaries as a part of backloaded extensions. (Machado can be owed a $10MM signing bonus this December 1, though it’s not clear if the Padres contemplate that a part of their approximate $200MM calculus for subsequent season.) The Friars’ 11-year dedication to Bogaerts meant his annual wage is a reasonably palatable $25MM.
San Diego’s payroll opening the offseason will probably be outlined by a handful of upcoming choices choices. Matt Carpenter goes to train a $5.5MM participant provision; Seth Lugo will decline a $7.5MM choice in the hunt for a multi-year deal.
The Friars have matching two-year choices at $16MM yearly on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. Given their reported payroll scenario, it appears seemingly they’ll decline their finish of each provisions. It’s not an unreasonable quantity for Wacha in isolation, nevertheless it’d be more durable to justify if San Diego has considerably restricted spending room. Wacha would subsequently decline the primary of three participant choices valued within the $6-6.5MM vary; Martinez would have a two-year choice at $8MM yearly that’ll be an attention-grabbing name.
If Carpenter and Martinez choose in whereas Wacha and Lugo check free company, the Padres’ 2024 wage commitments would test in round $135MM (not counting Machado’s bonus however together with the $12+MM they’re sending to the Purple Sox on the Eric Hosmer deal). That doesn’t account for an enormous arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz initiatives a record-setting $33MM wage for Juan Soto in his last season of eligibility. Scott Barlow and Trent Grisham are projected at a mixed $12MM. That places the group at roughly $180MM earlier than contemplating outdoors additions. Until plans of payroll cuts are dramatically overstated, they’re not prone to make a professional run at Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger or Yoshinobu Yamamoto the way in which they could have in earlier offseasons.
Provided that monetary image, it’s pure that opposing fanbases have speculated about the potential of a second blockbuster Soto commerce in as a few years. San Diego doesn’t have to maneuver him. It’s doable to accommodate a $200MM payroll with their present commitments and Soto’s projected wage. Doing so would require an austere offseason, although, doubtlessly paired with a commerce of one other notable however much less impactful participant or two. San Diego hasn’t instructed any plans to buy Soto however hasn’t taken a commerce off the desk both.
With one season of remaining management, Soto’s commerce worth is markedly decrease than it was on the 2022 deadline. The Padres wouldn’t get close to the extent of expertise — 5 younger gamers headlined by MacKenzie Gore, James Wooden and CJ Abrams — which they despatched to the Nationals to amass him.
The Mookie Betts deal is the obvious precedent for a famous person traded earlier than his last arbitration season. The Purple Sox obtained 5 years of membership management on a stable common (Alex Verdugo), a borderline High 100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a mid-level prospect (Connor Wong) whereas additionally offloading round $48MM on the David Value contract. The deal didn’t work out for Boston. Verdugo by no means developed into greater than a stable participant, whereas Downs barely reached the majors. But it’s a basic benchmark for the Padres in the event that they had been to contemplate shifting Soto. They presumably wouldn’t additionally connect an underwater contract, so topping a package deal headlined by two highly-regarded however not elite controllable skills needs to be viable.
It’s debatable whether or not that’s preferable to easily retaining Soto for his last arbitration season. The Padres would get yet one more yr by which he anchors the lineup. They might deal him on the deadline in the event that they’re once more underperforming, whereas he’d clearly obtain the qualifying provide subsequent offseason in the event that they saved him on the roster. Even when they don’t anticipate re-signing him — Preller unsurprisingly instructed they’ll reengage with Soto’s reps on the Boras Company this winter — a commerce isn’t inevitable.
Holding Soto would restrict their flexibility elsewhere on the roster. San Diego has arguably the perfect group of impending free brokers of any group. Blake Snell is prone to be named NL Cy Younger a pair days earlier than hitting the market. Josh Hader has an excellent probability of topping the $102MM contract document for relievers which Edwin Díaz established final winter.
Even with their payroll questions, the Padres will clearly make a qualifying provide to every of Snell and Hader. There’s no probability both participant accepts a one-year deal, which might entitle San Diego to modest compensation in subsequent yr’s draft. As a luxurious tax payor, the Friars would obtain a choose between the fourth and fifth spherical for every participant in the event that they signal elsewhere.
Watching each depart seems seemingly. The Padres appeared to preemptively put together for Hader’s departure final offseason with a surprising five-year, $46MM dedication to Robert Suarez. Between the hard-throwing righty and the commerce deadline acquisition of Barlow, they’ll have choices for the ninth inning. Whereas shedding Hader can be an enormous blow to any bullpen, the Padres ought to produce other priorities.
None is larger than the rotation. San Diego’s beginning workers considerably quietly led the majors in ERA and completed fifth in strikeout charge. That’s largely because of their impending free brokers, who had been arguably their three prime starters. Snell was completely dominant from June onwards. Wacha (3.22) and Lugo (3.57) every turned in sub-4.00 ERA showings over 130+ frames. Lugo can be a sensible qualifying provide candidate if the Padres had been working at their typical spending capability. Given the anticipated constraints, the possibility he accepts a one-year provide value round $20.5MM and the mid-round choose they’d obtain if he walks, they’ll in all probability choose to not make the provide.
These doable departures depart the Friars with solely two locks for the beginning workers. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish ended this season on the injured listing. They’re anticipated to be prepared for Spring Coaching. If Martinez returns, he might have a clearer rotation alternative than he’s had within the final two years, when he has spent most of his time as a multi-inning reliever. The Padres have the choice to retain Wacha, though a $16MM wage might be an excessive amount of of a dedication to lock in earlier than free company even will get underway. Neither Pedro Avila nor Matt Waldron pitched effectively sufficient to safe a spot within the Opening Day 5.
The Padres want to herald two or three starters. Choices towards the decrease tiers of free company embrace Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Martín Pérez and Hyun Jin Ryu. Luis Severino is a candidate for a one-year pillow contract. Swingman Jakob Junis might market himself as a starter in the hunt for a two-year deal within the vary of what the Friars provided Lugo final winter. The Padres have been aggressive in concentrating on gamers from Asian skilled leagues. Maybe they’ll inquire on former Nationals righty Erick Fedde, who turned in a 2.13 ERA over 28 begins in his first season in South Korea.
They’ll seemingly usher in at the very least one arm by way of commerce. Paul Blackburn, Spencer Turnbull, Adrian Houser and Cal Quantrill are amongst reasonably priced arbitration-eligible hurlers who might be attainable. None of these pitchers would price an immense prospect return. San Diego nonetheless has a couple of names on the prime of the farm system (e.g. Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling) whom they might ostensibly dangle if an impression starter with a number of seasons of membership management (maybe Logan Gilbert or Dylan Stop) got here accessible.
San Diego might additionally deal off the large league group to search out extra steadiness on the roster. Barlow’s $7.1MM projected wage makes him a doable candidate, though it’d depart the Padres with little or no in the way in which of setup choices to pave the way in which to Suarez. Grisham is projected at just below $5MM and down to 2 seasons of management. He’s a superb defensive heart fielder however a .191/.300/.347 hitter because the begin of 2022.
Given how effectively Tatis acclimated to proper discipline defensively, the Friars might contemplate shifting him to heart and purchasing Grisham. They’d have to herald one other nook bat reverse Soto at that time. It’s not a strong free agent class for hitters. Ramón Laureano, Harold Ramírez and Dylan Carlson are among the many commerce potentialities if the Padres needed to seek for extra offensive upside than Grisham supplies with out taking over notable wage. Had been the Padres to maneuver Soto, they’d should take an even bigger swing within the outfield — whether or not a commerce candidate like Anthony Santander or a free agent pursuit of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.
Their final pursuit of a hitter from South Korea labored out excellently. Ha-Seong Kim is headed into the ultimate season of a four-year, $28MM free agent deal. He’s a plus defender who can transfer across the infield and has hit .256/.338/.391 over the past two years. Kim can be an in-demand commerce candidate if San Diego made him accessible. Between his affordability and a dreadful free agent class for center infielders, Kim can be the Padres’ most fascinating reasonable commerce candidate other than Soto.
Dealing Kim would open up second base for Jake Cronenworth, who’s miscast at first. But it’d additionally subtract one of many Padres’ finest place gamers with out clearing an enormous chunk of payroll house. Whereas Preller and his workers in all probability received’t foreclose the likelihood solely, the worth can be excessive.
In the event that they maintain Kim, he’d seemingly return to the keystone. Machado and Bogaerts are the presumptive left facet infield. Machado might be delayed early within the season as he recovers from elbow surgical procedure, however he’s anticipated again early sufficient within the season the Padres don’t have to fret in regards to the scorching nook. Bogaerts latest conceded he won’t be for much longer for shortstop (hyperlink by way of Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune). That raises the potential of a place swap for Bogaerts and Kim however doesn’t materially change the infield building.
The Padres ought to usher in some extra offensive punch for the primary base/DH combine. Final winter’s signings of Carpenter and Nelson Cruz didn’t pan out, nor did deadline acquisitions of Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. With the latter two headed totally free company, the Padres ought to take one other swing at first base. Brandon Belt might be a free agent goal, whereas Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender chance. Including a bat-first participant would deepen the bench whereas liberating Cronenworth for a multi-position function.
If the Padres had been to take an even bigger free agent swing, Mitch Garver can be a powerful on-paper match. The Ranger slugger is a major DH who can catch every so often. The Padres will seemingly usher in a complement to Luis Campusano behind the dish whereas non-tendering Austin Nola. If Garver proves too costly and/or receives a qualifying provide from Texas, Tom Murphy might be an reasonably priced “Garver-lite” free agent goal.
San Diego has one of many wider-open outlooks for any group. They’re prone to lose a pair marquee free brokers however nonetheless have loads of star expertise on the prime of the roster. They’re definitely not about to rebuild. But subsequent yr’s roster might look fairly completely different from the 2023 model, particularly on the pitching workers. The Padres have been one of many sport’s most unpredictable groups all through Preller’s tenure. That’s not going to vary this yr.
