Along with this publish, Mark Polishuk will maintain a Yankees-centric chat on 10-24-23 at 1:15pm CT. Click on right here to go away a query prematurely.
The Yankees’ 82-80 file stored the membership’s streak of successful seasons alive, however that was small comfort inside a really disappointing season within the Bronx. Some method of unspecified modifications appear to be coming inside the group, but GM Brian Cashman and supervisor Aaron Boone look to be returning, because the Yankees will attempt to determine how (or how a lot) to construct round an incoming wave of younger expertise.
Assured Contracts
Aaron Choose, OF: $320MM by way of 2031
Gerrit Cole, SP: $180MM by way of 2028 (Cole can decide out after 2024 season, however Yankees can overwrite opt-out by including a $36MM wage for 2029)
Carlos Rodon, SP: $162MM by way of 2028
Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $128MM by way of 2027 (consists of $10MM buyout of $25MM membership possibility for 2028)
DJ LeMahieu, IF: $45MM by way of 2026
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $23MM by way of 2024 (consists of $6MM buyout of $17MM membership possibility for 2025)
Tommy Kahnle, RP: $5.75MM by way of 2024
Different Monetary Obligations
Complete 2024 commitments: $188.25MMTotal future commitments: $883.75
Arbitration-Eligible Gamers (projected 2024 salaries through MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Brokers
2016 was the Yankees’ final season out of the playoffs, so it’s maybe instructive to have a look at how Cashman responded after that final setback. Re-signing Aroldis Chapman and buying and selling for Brian McCann had been the 2 largest strikes of a comparatively quiet (by Yankees requirements) 2016-17 offseason, but the membership was in a position to rebound and attain Sport 7 of the 2017 ALCS, as New York was revived by the “Child Bombers” group that included Aaron Choose, Luis Severino, and Gary Sanchez.
The Yankees would undoubtedly like to see one other youth motion blossom in 2024, particularly with a lot promising younger expertise already debuting within the massive leagues. Anthony Volpe spent 2023 as New York’s on a regular basis shortstop, Oswald Peraza acquired a bit extra enjoying time than in 2022, and Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Jasson Dominguez all made their Main League debuts. Even with Dominguez out till roughly the All-Star break as a consequence of Tommy John surgical procedure, there’s loads of optimism that no less than a few these highly-touted children can get away in 2024.
That stated, it isn’t the Yankees’ model to take a step again for a growth 12 months. The membership finds itself within the robust spot of wanting or needing to search out enjoying time for these rookies, but additionally undoubtedly needing to make a powerful return to competition. It doesn’t seem as if managing common associate Hal Steinbrenner is but contemplating firing Cashman, however for Boone, 2024 is the final assured 12 months of his contract, so the supervisor may very well be on the new seat until the Yankees no less than make it again into the postseason.
For all of those bigger-picture points going through the Yankees, their offseason plan is maybe fairly easy — enhance the offense. New York completed inside the backside seven of the league in complete runs, OPS, OBP, batting common, and had been persistently undone by an incapability to get hits with runners in scoring place. Shedding Choose to a torn toe ligament for near seven weeks didn’t assist, however virtually all of New York’s different hitters had down years. Choose (174), Gleyber Torres (123), and the lightly-used Dominguez and Greg Allen had been the one Yankees hitters to publish even a 102 wRC+, as DJ LeMahieu was the subsequent better of the group with a barely above-average 101 complete.
In probably the most optimistic of views, getting wholesome seasons from Choose and Anthony Rizzo, some stage of bounce-back from LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, and that aforementioned breakout from one or two of the rookies might vastly enhance the lineup with out even any outdoors upgrades. However, that’s asking loads from inexperienced gamers, and it is perhaps that LeMahieu and Stanton received’t ever regain their prime type. Given the lingering results of Rizzo’s post-concussion syndrome, it additionally shouldn’t be assumed that Rizzo will instantly be an All-Star once more even with an offseason of restoration.
To some extent, the rookie crop generally is a hedge in opposition to the veterans’ possibilities of a comeback season. LeMahieu and Peraza may very well be concerned in a timeshare at third base, LeMahieu might likewise get some first base time together with Rizzo, and Pereira’s means to turn into an on a regular basis left fielder might preserve Stanton firmly in a DH-only position, which can be for the perfect at this stage of his profession.
Might a commerce clear some room? Stanton’s wage and his no-trade clause make him among the many most immovable gamers in baseball, so the Yankees must eat nearly all of his contract to accommodate a deal, even when Stanton did comply with a transfer. LeMahieu can also be a tricky promote in commerce talks, given the $45MM left on his contract and his personal no-trade safety as a consequence of his 10-and-5 standing. Rizzo is maybe the simplest of the trio to maneuver since he’s solely below contract by way of the 2024 season, but the Yankees can be promoting low given the unknowns of his harm scenario, and so they’d be shedding one of many few left-handed bats from their closely righty-leaning lineup.
Buying and selling Torres would additionally appear counter-productive, as he was the workforce’s second-best hitter in 2023. Shifting Torres would each open up a pure center infield spot for Peraza (or Volpe, if he was moved to second base and Peraza took over shortstop) and it could avoid wasting cash, as Torres is projected for an enormous arbitration elevate to $15.3MM. Whereas the Yankees typically don’t pursue extensions as a membership coverage, there hasn’t been any indication that Torres is within the workforce’s plans past 2024, which is the second baseman’s closing 12 months of arbitration eligibility previous to free company. Nonetheless, the Yankees is perhaps content material to only let Torres stroll in free company slightly than commerce him this winter and create one other query mark within the lineup.
In terms of discussing Torres’ arbitration quantity or the potential for consuming cash on contracts, it’s honest to do not forget that that is nonetheless the New York Yankees we’re speaking about. As a lot as Bronx followers would possibly take into account the workforce to be extra conservative spenders than they had been within the George Steinbrenner period, the Yankees nonetheless had baseball’s second-highest payroll in 2023. Whereas far an excessive amount of of that payroll went in direction of non-productive gamers, a case might actually be made that the Bombers might handle their offensive woes by splurging on among the offseason’s prime free agent bats.
For example, releasing Stanton and absorbing his contract fully is perhaps a neater tablet to swallow for the group if it created DH area for a generational expertise like Shohei Ohtani. Quite than entrust third base to LeMahieu and Peraza, the Yankees might signal one in every of Jeimer Candelario or Matt Chapman, which could then create extra flexibility to commerce Torres to alleviate an infield logjam.
When it comes to an ideal match for New York’s wants, Cody Bellinger checks a variety of packing containers. The previous NL MVP is a left-handed hitter who might both play heart discipline till Dominguez is wholesome, cut up time at first base with Rizzo, or transfer into left discipline if each Dominguez and Rizzo are wholesome, thus upgrading the lineup each offensively and defensively. The Yankees had curiosity in Bellinger when he was a free agent final season, although that was again when he was looking for a one-year contract, not the multi-year megadeal he’ll absolutely command this winter.
If not Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier or Jason Heyward might additionally match as a lot less-expensive outfield choices who’re greater than succesful in heart discipline. If the Yankees needed a left field-specific participant on a one-year deal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Conforto, or quite a lot of different choices might emerge on the free agent or commerce market. Such an acquisition would maybe restrict Pereira to part-time obligation, although Pereira did little to show himself prepared of a bigger position given his .427 OPS over his first 103 plate appearances within the majors. Buying a left-handed hitting outfielder would each assist steadiness the lineup, and in addition create a platoon alternative for the right-handed hitting Pereira.
As all the time, the Yankees determine to no less than verify in on nearly each prime free agent as a consequence of their monetary sources, and Cashman may also discover his choices on the commerce entrance. As a lot as New York prizes its upcoming wave of prospects, a non-playoff 12 months might make Cashman a little bit extra aggressive in dealing from that depth for a win-now piece or two. The Yankees determine to prioritize solely commerce targets with a number of years of management in the event that they had been to debate Pereira, Volpe, or Peraza in any negotiations, until a high-level participant (i.e. Juan Soto) was maybe made accessible.
One plus of retaining the rookies is that, in principle, their potential can no less than elevate the expertise flooring of the Yankees’ bench. Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a usefully versatile participant who might fill a variety of holes across the diamond, but his lack of offense signifies that he isn’t prone to be re-signed. IKF is one in every of a number of part-timers that don’t determine to return in 2024, with most as seemingly non-tender candidates inside New York’s gigantic arbitration class. Of that group, one in every of Jose Trevino or (most likely extra seemingly) Kyle Higashioka determine to be non-tendered, with the opposite remaining available to share time with Wells behind the plate.
Between the possible non-tenders and the free agent departures, roughly $39MM can be coming off the Yankees’ books. It’s not an enormous quantity, and it’ll get smaller given the arbitration raises to Torres, Clay Holmes, and others. This leaves New York with a projected luxurious tax quantity that’s already over the $237MM threshold, but as famous earlier, it isn’t as if the Yankees had been going to chop again spending….particularly not after a non-playoff season.
In spite of everything of this concentrate on how the Yankees can enhance their hitting, the pitching aspect can’t be ignored, as Gerrit Cole’s brilliance helped paper over some bigger issues inside the rotation. Cole will once more be the workforce’s ace, however Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes can be making an attempt to rebound from injury-plagued seasons, and Clarke Schmidt and Michael King are nonetheless each comparatively untested as starters (although each have regarded fairly good at occasions). So as to add depth, the Yankees might take into account a reunion with Luis Severino or Frankie Montas on low-cost offers, although both pitcher would possibly want for a recent begin with a membership that present a clearer path to rotation work.
Rodon’s struggles in his first 12 months within the Bronx might make the Bombers a little bit cautious about instantly signing one other starter to a dear long-term contract, but this might nonetheless be an possibility this winter. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been closely scouted by the Yankees and lots of different groups, and may very well be probably the most real looking top-tier pitching possibility for New York to pursue as a result of Yamamoto is simply 25 and won’t even be in his prime years. If the Yankees needed to make a shorter-term improve for the entrance of the rotation, such arms because the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes or the Guardians’ Shane Bieber are free brokers after 2024, however would naturally nonetheless some at a big commerce price.
New York’s bullpen flew considerably below the radar as one of many higher aid items in baseball, so the Yankees may very well be in fine condition since a lot of the relievers can be coming again. Pitching coach Matt Blake and bullpen coach Mike Harkey have proven a knack for getting sturdy outcomes out of a wide range of pitchers (whether or not veterans, rookies, or unheralded acquisitions), so the Yankees don’t essentially want any big-ticket additions to the aid corps.
Wandy Peralta posted good numbers regardless of some very shaky superior metrics in 2023, and even when the Yankees move on re-signing Peralta himself, they’ll seemingly hunt down one other southpaw to fill Peralta’s position. Discovering a alternative for King may very well be harder, as King was wonderful in a multi-inning aid position final 12 months however goes to be stretched out for a possible rotation job subsequent 12 months. Whereas King might all the time simply return to the pen if his beginning gig doesn’t work out, his worth as a aid arm may very well be one more reason for the Yankees to hunt out a extra seasoned starter over the winter.
For all the methods the Yankees may very well be completely different on the sphere in 2024, it additionally appears obvious that some issues must occur behind the scenes. A lot was made earlier this month about an exterior audit the Yankees had been planning as a top-to-bottom overview of the group’s practices, however it stays to be seen if any modifications made will translate to a return to the postseason. Cashman’s job won’t essentially be on the road, but the final supervisor is going through extra public strain than at any time throughout his lengthy tenure working the Bombers’ entrance workplace.
