Together with this publish, Anthony Franco will maintain a Reds-centric chat on 10-04-23 at 9:00 am CDT. Click on right here to depart a query upfront.
The Reds made a shocking playoff push only one yr faraway from a 100-loss season. Whereas they got here up brief within the remaining weekend, the inflow of younger expertise reintroduced a jolt of pleasure to the group. They’re now not upstarts. To take the subsequent step, they’ll want to deal with the pitching employees.
Assured Contracts
Hunter Greene, RHP: $50MM via 2028 (together with buyout of ’29 membership possibility)
Choice Selections
Crew holds $20MM possibility on 1B Joey Votto ($7MM buyout)
$4MM mutual possibility between staff and C Curt Casali ($750K buyout)
Further Monetary Commitments
2024 monetary commitments: $16.25MMTotal future commitments: $63.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Gamers
Non-tender candidates: Senzel, Regulation, Dunn, Gutierrez
Free Brokers
Few exterior the Cincinnati group anticipated the Reds to hold within the playoff combine all season. They made a speedy soar from clear rebuilder to potential Wild Card staff as they graduated numerous proficient younger gamers, largely on the place participant aspect.
There’s extra cause for optimism than there was getting into every of the earlier two offseasons. Possession is clearly pleased with the organizational course. The Reds signed supervisor David Bell to a three-year extension in July. Final week, they promoted entrance workplace head Nick Krall from GM to president of baseball operations at the side of an extension of undisclosed size. Brad Meador acquired the overall supervisor title, solidifying him because the #2 government.
The main focus now turns to the roster. Cincinnati’s first offseason resolution is a simple one, although it might mark the symbolic finish of a earlier period in franchise historical past. The assured portion of Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM extension has wrapped up. The Reds will clearly go for a $7MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM membership possibility, sending Votto to the open marketplace for the primary time in his profession. The $13MM worth level is past what a 40-year-old first baseman coming off a second straight middling offensive season might discover in free company.
Votto, after all, has constructed a robust Corridor of Fame case throughout his 17 years in Cincinnati. He received the 2010 NL MVP and completed within the high three in balloting on two extra events. He’s a profession .294/.409/.511 hitter who ranks 93rd in main league historical past having reached base 3581 instances, the best mark for any energetic participant. Votto is among the best gamers in franchise historical past and among the many most efficient first basemen ever.
It’s not a assure that Votto’s time in Cincinnati is full. The six-time All-Star has to date been noncommittal about whether or not he’ll proceed his enjoying profession. After Sunday’s season finale, he advised the beat he “simply (doesn’t) have a solution but” about his future (hyperlink through Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds might definitely look to convey him again on a less expensive one-year pact if he needs to return for an 18th season.
Whereas Votto is a franchise icon, the Reds aren’t dealing with the lack of a lot 2023 on-field manufacturing from any of their impending free brokers. They’ll decline their finish of a $4MM mutual possibility on backup catcher Curt Casali. Third backstop Luke Maile heads again to the open market, although the Northern Kentucky native would in all probability be open to a different low-cost one-year pact to stay with the Reds in the event that they needed to maintain him because the #2 catcher.
Cincinnati received surprisingly little from that place this previous season. Tyler Stephenson entered the yr as one of many sport’s most promising younger catchers. The Reds hoped that extra time divided between catching and designated hitter would preserve him wholesome after a sequence of fluke accidents impacted his ’22 marketing campaign. That proved to be the case, however Stephenson didn’t hit nicely. Over a career-high 517 plate appearances, he managed solely a .242/.317/.378 line — nicely off the .296/.369/.454 tempo he carried into the yr.
He hit the ball moderately arduous, though his grounder charge spiked dramatically within the second half. Stephenson was one of many few controllable place gamers who underperformed expectations. Given his pre-2023 monitor file and a weak free agent catching class, the Reds in all probability give him one other probability because the #1 possibility. They’ll must signal a minimum of one backup, whether or not Maile or an analogous participant.
Cincinnati is unlikely to make many additions on the infield grime. They’ve a deep assortment of younger expertise. Spencer Steer can play any of the nook spots on the diamond and noticed restricted motion at second base. He’s not an amazing defender anyplace however hit his manner into the lineup throughout a number of positions. It’s an analogous story with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, one other rookie nook infielder who joined the Reds within the lopsided Tyler Mahle commerce with Minnesota.
Steer is the extra full hitter at this level, whereas Encarnacion-Strand lined for middling plate self-discipline with plus energy. They each managed above-average leads to their first prolonged seems at large league arms — Steer had struggled in a cup of espresso on the 2022 staff — and appear to be potential middle-of-the-order bats from the correct aspect. Encarnacion-Strand noticed the majority of his time at first base and DH down the stretch.
That’s partly as a result of he isn’t an amazing third base defender, although it additionally hints on the quantity of up-the-middle expertise the Reds possess. Matt McLain had arguably the very best rookie marketing campaign of any Cincinnati participant, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers in 89 video games earlier than a season-ending indirect damage. He seized the first shortstop job. That pushed Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte — each of whom got here up primarily as shortstop prospects — to the recent nook.
Marte additionally raked in a 35-game pattern after his promotion in late August. The outcomes had been blended on De La Cruz, who confirmed the tantalizing bodily items that made him an debatable high 5 prospect but additionally the regarding plate self-discipline profile that left some evaluators cautious.
De La Cruz concluded his rookie yr with a .235/.300/.410 slash via 427 journeys. He hit 13 residence runs, stole 35 bases and confirmed top-of-the-scale arm energy with regularity. But his general defensive rankings had been blended and he struck out in additional than a 3rd of his plate appearances. After a scorching begin, he had a tough second half. It was nonetheless a powerful displaying for a 21-year-old on the main league degree. There’s star potential for anybody with this mixture of uncooked energy, pace and arm expertise — notably with a switch-hitter who can play on the left aspect of the infield. De La Cruz’s consistency was behind that of most of his rookie teammates, although.
It’s arduous to think about the Reds beginning De La Cruz again in Triple-A to start subsequent season. They’ll want a spot for McLain, nonetheless, and Marte definitely didn’t play his manner down. There’s additionally an incentive for the Reds to hold Marte, who retains his rookie eligibility, on subsequent yr’s Opening Day roster. In the event that they carry him for a full service yr and he wins Rookie of the Yr, they’d obtain an additional draft alternative through the Prospect Promotion Incentive.
That surplus is earlier than attending to the participant who was Cincinnati’s finest place participant not too way back: second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Yr hit .244/.338/.407 in 529 journeys to the plate. That’s league common manufacturing, his second straight season in that vary. Whereas India began the season robust, his offense dipped by June. He misplaced a superb portion of the second half battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot.
India persistently receives below-average grades from public metrics for his second base protection. It’s a bat-first profile and he hasn’t hit particularly nicely since his debut marketing campaign. There’s an argument he must be the odd one out of the very proficient infield. His title surfaced in a commerce rumor across the deadline, although subsequent reviews rapidly shot down the probability of Cincinnati shifting him.
Whereas the 26-year-old once more stands as an on-paper commerce candidate, there’s no assure the Reds will critically take into account provides. India is among the extra skilled gamers on a really younger roster and a number of Cincinnati gamers have advised he’s a key determine within the clubhouse. India conceded he was affected by the hypothesis he’d be dealt across the deadline, even taking a sport off for a psychological reset. The Reds could not need to transfer him, particularly since his commerce worth is at its lowest ebb throughout his main league profession. Between his defensive grades and middling offense over the ultimate few months, India isn’t prone to convey again an above-average beginning pitcher with a number of years of membership management — even in a down free agent infield class.
Former #2 general choose Nick Senzel opened the season at third base after struggling in heart area in prior years. He began the yr robust, a minimum of in opposition to left-handed pitching, however his bat tailed off within the second half. Cincinnati despatched him down for a pair weeks in August. Whereas he completed the season on the massive league roster, there’s a superb probability he’s traded for a minimal return or just non-tendered.
If the Reds maintain the remainder of their infielders, that would push Steer into the nook outfield. He’d doubtless play left area on most days. Will Benson and Jake Fraley every had robust outcomes as left-handed hitting nook outfielders. The Reds shielded each gamers from left-handed pitching. Even with Steer seeing outfield reps, there’s room for a right-handed platoon bat.
Cincinnati introduced in Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers as stopgaps in late August. Renfroe was rapidly launched, whereas Bader appears prone to signal with a staff that may provide on a regular basis heart area reps. Somebody like Robbie Grossman or Aaron Hicks — each switch-hitters who’re higher in opposition to lefty pitching — might make sense to fill that position. Grossman is prone to signal a one-year deal value a number of million {dollars}. Hicks is accessible to each membership on the league minimal wage after being launched by the Yankees, so his camp will kind via numerous provides on the identical worth searching for the perfect staff match.
TJ Friedl doesn’t obtain the identical quantity of consideration as his youthful teammates, however he performed at an All-Star degree (.279/.352/.467 with 18 homers) in heart area this yr. He’s a wonderful contact hitter with plus pace and strong protection. Friedl is considerably quietly a really invaluable participant, one whom Bell can comfortably plug right into a top-two spot within the lineup as a table-setter.
At age 28 and below membership management for 5 extra seasons, Friedl is unlikely to be an extension candidate. The Reds might have curiosity in making an attempt to get a deal accomplished with a number of of their early-mid 20s hitters. Steer is below management for 5 seasons. De La Cruz, McLain, Marte and Encarnacion-Strand are all controllable for six extra years. Extensions for gamers with lower than one yr of MLB service are uncommon however not unparalleled.
Ronald Acuña, Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll all signed nine-figure pacts earlier than their first full yr within the large leagues. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert signed within the $50MM vary earlier than making their MLB debuts. The Reds don’t have anybody who’s but established on the Acuña, Franco or Carroll degree. These gamers had been all consensus high 5 prospects who’d discovered quick MLB success. One thing round Robert’s $50MM may very well be an affordable proposal to De La Cruz or Marte if the Reds are keen on shopping for out two or three free agent seasons. McLain could be a trickier participant to worth, since he had extra preliminary success than De La Cruz however wasn’t as highly-regarded as a prospect, however he’s additionally a possible candidate. Willingness to signal an early-career extension varies by participant. It’s a minimum of one thing the entrance workplace might take into account.
It’s rather less steady on the pitching employees. They signed Hunter Greene to a $50MM assure in April. That’s their solely contractual dedication exterior of possibility buyouts, leaving open the likelihood for extra long-term offers. One thing within the $50MM vary additionally made sense for southpaw Nick Lodolo preseason. He’s coming off a yr derailed by left shin accidents, so the Reds will in all probability wait on a long-term pact till he’s again on the mound.
24-year-old Andrew Abbott put himself within the dialog alongside Greene and Lodolo as potential rotation cornerstones. The 6’0″ southpaw turned in a 3.87 ERA via his first 21 main league begins, hanging out 26.1% of opponents within the course of. It’s a little bit early to think about Abbott an extension candidate — groups have a tendency to attend on beginning pitchers till they’ve a year-plus of service time — however he’s clearly within the ’24 rotation and may very well be the Opening Day starter.
Including a mid-rotation veteran must be the entrance workplace’s important precedence. Greene and Lodolo battled accidents and inconsistency. Abbott set a profession mark with 163 1/3 innings between the minors and large leagues this summer time. Graham Ashcraft eats innings however had an up-and-down season. Whereas Brandon Williamson discovered his stride properly within the second half of his rookie marketing campaign, his minor league monitor file is blended. Journeyman Ben Full of life light after a pleasant begin. Prospect Connor Phillips has enormous stuff and whiff charges however management woes that lead some evaluators to level to a attainable bullpen future.
The Reds can’t go into subsequent yr relying on every of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson to carry a spot all season. They’ll want extra depth than that they had this yr, after they gave Luke Weaver 21 begins and turned to Full of life and Luis Cessa a mixed 18 instances.
Cincinnati has spent lower than $15MM in free company in every of the final two offseasons. There’s no cause for that to proceed given the clear payroll outlook. The contracts for Votto and Mike Moustakas are off the books other than possibility buyouts. They’ve simply over $16MM in 2024 commitments at current. It’s a strong however hardly overwhelming group of arbitration-eligible gamers.
The Reds aren’t going to make a play for Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s tough to venture them as a candidate to high $100MM on Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola given their spending habits. But they’ve proven a willingness to enter the center tier of the free agent market in prior offseasons, guaranteeing $64MM every to Moustakas and Nick Castellanos.
Outdated buddy Sonny Grey will in all probability stretch past that quantity and price a draft alternative after rejecting a qualifying provide. Eduardo Rodriguez can not obtain the QO and may very well be out there on a four-year pact within the $70-80MM vary if he opts out of his take care of the Tigers. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are potentialities on a two or three-year deal.
Cincinnati might add a starter in free company whereas additionally trying to the commerce market. India might return a back-end kind, even when he’s unlikely to get the ball rolling for somebody like Dylan Stop or Logan Gilbert. Dealing any of McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte or De La Cruz ranges from unlikely to ’not taking place,’ however they’d all have ample commerce attraction. Maybe the foremost league infield depth frees them to discover potentialities involving prospects Edwin Arroyo or Cam Collier for controllable rotation assist.
They’ll additionally doubtless add within the bullpen. Cincinnati has a number of strong arms nevertheless it’s a roughly common reduction group general. It’s anchored by All-Star nearer Alexis Díaz. Deadline pickup Sam Moll is an efficient ground-ball lefty. Low-cost additions of Alex Younger and Ian Gibaut have added center reduction depth. Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone can all miss bats at a excessive degree, though Cruz and Sims have scattershot command and Antone has battled forearm issues. Buck Farmer, who was second on the staff with 75 reduction innings, is headed to free company.
Cincinnati received’t be in on Josh Hader, however they’ve the monetary room to play within the decrease to center tiers. Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, previous buddy Robert Stephenson and Pierce Johnson are all prone to land multi-year offers. Gamers like Ryne Stanek or Keynan Middleton may very well be out there as one or cheaper two-year fliers.
Given the younger expertise on the roster and the payroll area, there’s extra alternative for the entrance workplace so as to add than has existed in fairly a while. It’s an thrilling time for Reds’ followers once more. They had been forward of schedule in 2023 and got here up a little bit bit in need of the postseason. Subsequent yr’s staff ought to have reputable playoff aspirations from day one. It’s as much as the entrance workplace so as to add the pitching essential to make that occur.
