At the moment, Jack Surtees dives deep into the numbers to settle an age-old pub debate. Be happy to precise your ideas within the feedback part and counsel another statistical angles that is perhaps fascinating…
It’s the everlasting debate. One outlined by contentious, subjective, impossible-to-answer points equivalent to cod vs haddock, ketchup vs gravy and the right time period for the little chunks of batter that fall off a fried fish – ‘batter bits’, ‘scraps’ or one thing else fully? After all, there are cultural variations that exist outdoors of the native chippie, however to me that’s the place the nice ‘north versus south divide’ turns into most obvious within the UK. Fortuitously, as we speak we will likely be slicing by means of all of the furor, all of the accents and numerous names for sandwiches, to take one small however important step in the direction of definitively proving who really are better: northerners or southerners. Nicely, almost about producing English males’s Take a look at cricketers, anyway.
To start with, there are some things to deal with: the primary being the confusion that arises when making an attempt to divide Britain right into a north and a south. When you have been to finish a tour of the pubs discovered between John O’Groats and Land’s Finish asking the place to put that line of division you’d possible discover solutions starting from the Tyne to the Thames, and probably much more excessive. Fortuitously, the ECB have already determined which counties they take into account northern and which they take into account southern, by way of their T20 Blast teams, so I’ll be utilizing their reckoning for the article.
The subsequent consideration is learn how to quantify the place a participant has been ‘produced’. For some, that is easy. Ollie Pope, for instance, got here by means of the youth system at Guildford, went on to debut for Surrey and has thus far solely represented his dwelling county. For others, equivalent to Pope’s one time teammate Kevin Pietersen, it will get just a little extra sophisticated. KP was reared within the Kwazulu-Natal province of South Africa the place he made his first-class debut, earlier than enjoying within the Birmingham Premier League after which happening to symbolize three separate counties within the County Championship. To simplify these extra complicated conditions, I’ve determined to make use of the membership that every participant made their County Championship debut at because the county wherein they have been ‘produced’.
Lastly, we come to the time period to guage. I’m taking a look at this from a contemporary perspective, so it made sense to have a look at the careers and the origins of all of the gamers to have made their debuts because the first match of the present squad’s longest serving participant – which takes us again an excellent 20 years, to a world earlier than Bazball, English World Cup triumphs, Mitchell Johnson, and Warne’s 40 wicket collection. Extra particularly, we’ll be wanting again to the twenty second of Could 2003, when a tearaway younger fast with blonde highlights made his debut alongside Anthony McGrath in a crew led by Nasser Hussain.
Between the beginning of that match and the extraordinary 1 run(!) defeat in Wellington, England have handed out 98 caps (together with an honorary cap to the Glamorgan wicketkeeper Alan Jones, who performed predominantly within the 70s and 80s and has subsequently been omitted from the info). Between them, this group of gamers have racked up 2,393 Take a look at appearances, scored 111,958 Take a look at runs, taken 3,343 Take a look at wickets, and depend amongst their ranks maybe 5 gamers with a declare to be England’s biggest trendy Take a look at cricketer. It’s definitely not a gaggle missing in expertise, so let’s see what the numbers inform us.
Gamers and Matches
Throughout this timespan, Yorkshire and Surrey sit degree because the counties with probably the most debutantes, every offering simply sufficient gamers to discipline an XI by themselves. Maybe surprisingly, seeing as they’re the youngest county and have endured a couple of powerful years in latest occasions, Durham are third within the listing with ten gamers. Just one county hasn’t produced a single debutante since 2003. Glamorgan are seemingly not the membership to debut for in the event you’re a younger participant harbouring worldwide ambitions.
Total, when it comes to the full variety of gamers to earn caps since 2003, the south barely pips the north by 52 to 45. That order, nonetheless, is reversed if we take a look at the full variety of matches performed. The north main the best way with 1299 in comparison with the south’s 1094.
Clearly these numbers are inflated by the longevity of messrs Anderson, Broad and Root – who, on the time of writing, sit 2nd, eighth and twenty second respectively on the listing of most Take a look at appearances (for a mixed whole of 469 matches!) – nevertheless it does counsel that gamers from the north have been extra more likely to earn an extended run within the Take a look at arrange over the last 20 years. This bears true once we depend the variety of gamers with a minimal of 25 Take a look at appearances (round a two-year stint within the Take a look at facet provided that England are averaging 13 Assessments a 12 months since 2003). 13 gamers from the north meet this standards combining for a complete of 1,077 appearances, whereas solely 11 gamers achieve this from the south, combining for a complete of 762.
When it comes to roles, the south have produced extra batters (20 to 13), Middlesex main the best way with six. The north simply pips the south almost about bowlers (21 to twenty), Lancashire and Durham being the 2 entrance runners with 5 every. The north additionally leads the best way with all-rounders (10 to five), nonetheless, they’re comfortably crushed on the subject of wicketkeepers, as Jonny Bairstow is the one participant of northern origin to have debuted and saved for England since 2003. The southern counties have seen seven keepers earn caps in that very same timespan.
Batting, Bowling and Fielding
There’s an previous adage {that a} robust Yorkshire means a robust England, and positively almost about run-making this appears to carry true. Simply take into consideration the batters which have pushed the Bazball machine: Bairstow, Brook and Root are certainly the primary three that pop to thoughts, and for good cause too.
In the course of the Stokes-McCullum reign, these three have performed 42 innings between them, throughout which they’ve scored 2,549 runs at a mixed common of 71 and a strike-rate of 87. In simply 12 Assessments and 5 collection, they’ve racked up 12 centuries, 8 fifties, 6 Participant of the Match awards and 4 Participant of the Collection awards. Yorkshire really is the bedrock of the present Take a look at crew.
Unsurprisingly then, from our pattern, Yorkshire gamers have offered the England Take a look at crew with over 3,000 runs greater than another county, their whole nearing the 20,000 mark. Second on the listing is Warwickshire (driving on the shoulders of Trott and Bell) and third comes Essex (primarily by means of the exploits of 1 Essex primarily based Knight of the Realm). Close to the north vs south debate, the north is once more sitting fairly with 62,491 runs or 54% of all of the runs scored by this group of gamers.
Bowling is the same story however with an much more pronounced distinction. Southern bowlers have taken a mixed 1,225 wickets between them, which is simply adequate for 37% of the full. The north’s 2,118 wickets are, once more, in fact boosted by the presence of possibly England’s biggest quick bowling partnership and so it’s no shock to seek out Lancashire and Leicestershire (the place Broad made his debut) atop the wicket taking lists with 712 and 583 apiece, adopted by Northamptonshire, Durham and Warwickshire.
Final, however not least, let’s take a look at all sides’s impression within the discipline. Right here the south leads the best way having taken 53% of the catches and 67% of the stumpings with 1,261 and 26 respectively. Credit score to Jonny Bairstow once more, although, as he’s managed to say a 3rd of England’s stumpings by himself though he misplaced his place because the crew’s first selection keeper a couple of years in the past.
Affect on Profitable
Lastly, we come to crucial figures: these within the win and loss columns. The general document for our pattern gamers reads 1,064 wins, 525 attracts and 804 defeats. Anderson sits atop the pile for many wins (81) and most losses (62), though not probably the most attracts. Regardless of having performed in largely the identical period, on the time of writing Prepare dinner has performed in 39 attracts in comparison with Broad’s 37 and Jimmy’s 36.
Aggregated totals usually are not actually consequential right here, although. These three names sit atop the listing courtesy of getting performed extra occasions for England than anybody else. What’s extra fascinating is a participant’s impression on successful – principally, how profitable the crew has been whereas every participant has been within the XI. There are two figures that we are going to take a look at to find out this…
The primary is just their successful share (in what share of their matches did the crew win). The second is barely extra nuanced, nonetheless, taking attracts into consideration. I’ve chosen to make use of the County Championship factors system for this (16 factors for a win, 8 for a draw) and imagined a state of affairs the place Take a look at matches have been performed in such a league to then calculate every participant’s common factors per match.
With a minimal of 25 matches performed (to provide an inexpensive pattern measurement) the participant with the very best successful share is Jack Leach with 19 wins from 34 matches for a strong 55.88%. One other cult hero left-arm tweaker is the proprietor of the worst document, nonetheless, with Monty Panesar successful solely 15 of his 50 matches for a determine of 30%.
On the subject of common County Championship points-per-match now we have two totally different faces on the high and backside, although. In first place now we have the BBC’s latest member of Take a look at Match Particular, Steven Finn, with a mean of 10.89 factors from his 36 matches (20 wins and 9 attracts). Whereas rounding off the listing is, the relatively unlucky, Rory Burns, who performed a big chunk of his Take a look at profession by means of the final stretch of Root’s captaincy when the facet infamously had just one win in 17 makes an attempt. His 14 defeats in 32 matches resulted in a mean of solely 7.5 factors per match.
When wanting on the figures from a county perspective, we discover that the very best successful percentages come from Somerset, Middlesex and Kent with 51.75%, 48.57% and 48.35% respectively. You in all probability gained’t be stunned to seek out that these counties additionally occupy the highest three slots almost about points-per-match, though the order is just a little jumbled with Middlesex main the pack at 9.87, adopted by Kent (9.58) and Somerset (9.33). Leicestershire are the one different county (and the one northerners) to interrupt the 9 level mark and even in order that they solely simply achieve this with 9.04.
Which brings us to the conclusion of this statistical deep dive…
To sum up, since Anderson made his England Take a look at debut approach again in 2003, a budding worldwide prospect has been barely extra more likely to earn a cap if they’ve been the product of a southern county. That being stated, it’s the northerners which were extra more likely to safe an prolonged run within the Take a look at facet and, consequently, the majority of England’s Take a look at runs and, particularly, their Take a look at wickets have come from northerners. On the subject of successful, nonetheless, plainly the selectors have been justified of their negligible desire for the southern counties since their gamers simply edge the northerners on each successful share (45.43% to 43.63%) and point-per-match (9.07 to eight.69).
So what does all this imply for England and the way forward for their Take a look at crew? Hopefully, completely nothing. You’ll hope that any disparity within the availability of alternatives is the results of pure coincidence relatively than a systemic concentrate on one set of counties. Fortuitously, the figures are shut sufficient that this appears to be the case.
It’s a shock, although. Being a northerner (at coronary heart) myself, and having spent the final decade plus cheering on the exploits of Stokes, Root, Anderson, and Broad – certainly the 4 biggest English match winners of the period – I began this evaluation totally believing that the scales would tip in favour of the northerners. I assume this has performed out almost about the sheer output of an elite group of northerners. However, when considered by means of the chilly lens of statistics, I have to concede that over the previous twenty years it’s been southerners, by a whisker, which have offered England with their almost certainly path to victory.
I don’t reckon I’ll be altering my order from the chippy anytime quickly, although. It’ll at all times be gravy for me.
Jack Surtees
