NLDS Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies summarily dispatched the Marlins in two video games this week within the wild card spherical, organising a rematch with the Braves within the NLDS. On paper, Atlanta is the superior crew, one which topped the majors with 104 wins this season and received the NL East by 14 video games over Philadelphia. However playoff sequence aren’t received on paper, and baseball is the coin-tossiest of the most important sports activities; its playoffs aren’t about crowning the perfect crew, however the profitable crew — two correlated but various things. The Braves had a 14-win benefit over the Phillies final yr, too, and that didn’t hold Philadelphia from sending Atlanta again residence on a midnight aircraft to Georgia in 4 video games. The Phillies might simply do it once more.

The Phillies didn’t come away with a championship in 2022, however anybody claiming that that they had an unsuccessful season ought to have their pants checked for fire-related injury. Knocking out the Braves should have given them vital satifaction final yr, given how Atlanta had come out on high in current seasons. Each groups spent a lot of the mid-to-late 2010s in rebuilding processes, however the Braves had significantly extra success; their 2022 playoff look was their fifth in as many seasons. Philadelphia, alternatively, had hassle growing affect gamers on the fee Atlanta did; 2022’s postseason run was the franchise’s first in 11 years.

So how will the rematch go? Let’s begin with the present projections:

Atlanta is favored to win the five-game sequence, however not with overwhelming odds. The Braves might positively go residence in per week nonetheless having by no means defeated the Phillies in a playoff sequence.

These possibilities will probably change a small quantity as we get nearer to the Sport 1 and have extra readability on the Atlanta’s plans. At press time, it appears probably that Max Fried will begin Sport 2 after pitching in a simulated recreation on Tuesday. However blisters may be annoying, and till the Braves affirm that he would be the starter, I’m being conservative with their utilization. I additionally don’t essentially suppose that Sport 2 could be his assured debut; provided that they have been unsure whether or not he’d even be out there per week in the past, I’m unsure they wouldn’t really feel safer with Bryce Elder being the one set as much as come again on 4 days’ relaxation in a attainable Sport 5. The Phillies might pitch Zack Wheeler on 4 days’ relaxation earlier than going again to Ranger Suárez, however once more, I held off on that provided that the crew has had numerous religion within the latter up to now.

In any case, I’ll re-roll the projections with Fried in Sport 2 and each Wheeler and Fried beginning in Sport 5:

Fried’s availability is among the greatest X-factors on this sequence, so I’m desirous to see the matchups at the very least written in pencil. The distinction between getting him for 2 begins and getting a second Elder begin and maybe a begin from AJ Smith-Shawver is a big one (ZiPS prefers Allan Winans to Smith-Shawver, however I don’t suppose he’s the one who’ll get the nod). There’s additionally an open query as to who the Phillies would begin in a attainable Sport 4. I feel it’s unlikely that Taijuan Walker makes a begin this postseason, and Cristopher Sánchez labored deep into numerous video games within the second half, principally efficiently.

With Charlie Morton on the shelf and Kyle Wright nonetheless getting again to regular after lacking vital time with a shoulder harm, the Phillies with their high three of Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Suárez are the Braves’ match in relation to beginning pitching. It’s gotten surprisingly little press, however the Phillies really lead the majors in pitching WAR in 2023, and the bullpen was practically as much as the identical customary, ending third in WAR and sixth in whole ERA. Craig Kimbrel is the identify reliever, however José Alvarado is the scariest of the brief relievers at this level, having principally conquered the command points that when plagued him. Jeff Hoffman has quietly been one of many yr’s finest signings. He isn’t the one approach the Phillies have matched groups just like the Rays or Dodgers in bullpen cleverness; Matt Strahm has continued to be very stable in myriad roles, and the crew confirmed actual ambition by trusting Orion Kerkering within the majors so rapidly. Gregory Soto’s ERA isn’t spectacular, however in some ways, he’s a lot nearer to being a pitcher than a thrower than ever earlier than; he was hit loads much less onerous than in 2022 and shaved off a 3rd of his stroll fee. Atlanta has a really deep bullpen, however in the event you’re simply speaking the highest 5 or 6 guys — and that’s what you’re speaking about in October — I feel the variations between the 2 groups are pretty small right here.

The place Atlanta has a bonus is the lineup. Philly’s lineup is hardly punchless, ending fourth within the NL in runs scored regardless of no Rhys Hoskins and never having Bryce Harper out there to begin the season. However the Braves’ lineup was the category of MLB this season, main the league by practically 50 runs. The final time a crew scored greater than Atlanta’s 947 runs was the Yankees all the way in which again in 2007. Neither is it a crew that fattened up their backside line in handful of massive blowouts:

Excluding the shortened seasons (1994, ’95, 2020), solely the 1996 Mariners failed to attain greater than three runs much less usually than the 2023 Braves. Neither is there any notably exploitable weak spot. The Braves had the perfect wRC+ within the league towards each lefties and righties. They have been within the high 5 in worth towards all classes in pitches. The info isn’t tracked, however I’m certain they’d rating runs in a field, with a fox, on a practice, or within the rain. The least productive offensive participant of their beginning lineup, Orlando Arcia, nonetheless hit .264/.321/.420, an above-average triple-slash for a shortstop.

Whereas I’m suspicious of chopping up knowledge into smaller and smaller tranches, which has doubtful predictive worth, it’s at the very least price seeing if the Phillies had a selected knack for shutting down high-scoring offenses. So I checked out every pitching employees towards the highest six groups in runs scored (Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, Rays, Rangers, Astros, and Cubs).

The Phillies didn’t display a selected means for stopping high-octane groups, nor did they present any explicit expertise at shutting down the Braves. However that’s not one thing I’d fear about; typically issues are simply fascinating reasonably than notably significant!

On the finish of the day, the Braves enter the NLDS as favorites over the Phillies, however by a comparatively slim margin. As dominating as they’ve been this season, in the event that they deal with the Phillies as a pace bump reasonably than an actual menace, they might dwell to remorse it — once more.