NFL Week 17 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 17 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we acquired you coated with what you must know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters deliver us the most important keys to each recreation and a daring prediction for every matchup.

Moreover, ESPN Stats & Data offers a giant stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, and our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection and a have a look at the playoff image. Analytics author Seth Walder picks out every matchup’s greatest X issue, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody fingers out useful fantasy soccer intel. Lastly, Walder and Moody give us remaining rating picks for each recreation. Every thing you need to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.

Let’s get into the total Week 17 slate, which begins with a Saturday showdown between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+. On Sunday, there’s a Tua Tagovailoa-Lamar Jackson showdown in Baltimore, one other Bengals-Chiefs matchup and a battle for the NFC South. (Recreation occasions are Sunday until in any other case famous — there is no such thing as a NFL recreation on Monday this week — and all playoff probability percentages are by way of FPI and unbiased of different outcomes.)

Leap to a matchup:DET-DAL | NE-BUF | ATL-CHILV-IND | LAR-NYG | ARI-PHINO-TB | SF-WSH | CAR-JAXMIA-BAL | TEN-HOU | PIT-SEALAC-DEN | CIN-KC | GB-MIN

Thursday: CLE 37, NYJ 20

8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday | ESPN | Unfold: DAL -5.5 (52.5)

Storyline to observe: The Cowboys want a win to maintain their NFC East title hopes alive, however possibly extra importantly want a victory to cease a two-game dropping streak and to beat a high quality crew going into the postseason. The Lions nonetheless have home-field benefit desires and a December triumph in opposition to a playoff-bound crew. Each groups excel indoors — the Cowboys are 7-0 at house (7-1 general) and the Lions are 7-2. — Todd Archer

Daring prediction: Lions quarterback Jared Goff will eclipse the 30,000-yard passing mark for his profession with 200-plus yards at Dallas. He wants 162 yards to develop into the league’s 53rd participant to hit the mark. Goff has performed his finest soccer in opposition to nondivisional opponents, with an 8-2 document and 20 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: Goff has the third-most turnovers below strain this season with 10. On Saturday, he’ll face a Cowboys protection that leads the league in strain proportion (36.9).

Matchup X issue: Lions defensive again Brian Department. He largely performs within the slot, which implies he’ll draw his justifiable share of overlaying receiver CeeDee Lamb. However Department is up for the problem — he has allowed a better-than-average 1.0 yards per protection snap allowed and leads all rookies with minus-19 EPA in opposition to when the closest defender, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder

What’s at stake: A loss to the Lions would severely restrict the Cowboys’ alternative to seize the division, as their possibilities would fall from 23.9% with a win to 2.1% with a loss. The Cowboys’ probabilities of home-field benefit and a first-round bye within the playoffs could be 1.2% with a win and nonexistent with a loss. As for the Lions, they’ve the NFC North wrapped up, however a win offers them a 29.5% probability of taking the convention’s prime seed. A loss prevents Detroit from getting the No. 1 seed. Learn extra.

Accidents: Lions | Cowboys

What to know for fantasy: The Lions’ protection has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the fourth-most touchdowns to extensive receivers this season. Lamb is a direct beneficiary, however do not overlook Brandin Cooks. At house, the Cowboys common 303 passing yards, the second most within the league. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Lions video games are 10-5 to the over this season, tied for the very best over proportion within the NFL. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Cowboys 30, Lions 27Walder’s choose: Cowboys 27, Lions 21FPI prediction: DAL, 70.1% (by a mean of seven.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Lions prime Vikes, win first division title since 1993 … Why Jerry put Jimmy in Cowboys Ring of Honor … Jurassic Park, MJ’s halftime and extra traits from Lions’ final division title … Cowboys should be ‘street warriors’ to make a Tremendous Bowl run

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: BUF -13 (40.5)

Storyline to observe: The Patriots received the primary assembly in October, however the Payments are 12-1 in house video games in opposition to division opponents since 2020, together with the playoffs, with the one loss coming in opposition to New England in 2021. The Payments have received three straight whereas the Patriots are coming off a win on the Broncos. Payments quarterback Josh Allen stated, “Frankly, it is a recreation that we have to win. And so they know that. We all know that. If I am within the New England Patriot locker room, I am trying to spoil their season.” — Alaina Getzenberg

Daring prediction: The Patriots will maintain the Payments’ offense beneath its common within the pink zone. Buffalo is the NFL’s No. 1-rated pink zone offense with 37 touchdowns in 55 journeys (67.3% success fee), whereas New England’s pink zone protection ranks seventh within the NFL as opponents have scored 22 touchdowns in 45 journeys (48.9% success fee). — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Patriots coach Invoice Belichick has by no means misplaced 12 video games in a season as a head coach — the 2011 Patriots and 1995 Browns every went 5-11.

Matchup X issue: Patriots defensive deal with Christian Barmore. He ranks tenth out of all tackles in go rush win fee (13.7%) and whereas the Payments have an excellent offensive line general, nobody within the inside is elite. Barmore has an opportunity to make an impression and disrupt Allen. — Walder

What’s at stake: There are 5 situations by which the Payments may clinch a playoff spot, all needing a win over the Patriots. If that occurs, they want two of the Bengals, Steelers or Jaguars to lose or losses by the Texans, Colts and both the Bengals or Steelers to clinch. Buffalo’s playoff proportion could be at 97.2 even when it does not clinch and the Payments would nonetheless have an opportunity at profitable the AFC East (28.7%) subsequent week in a head-to-head matchup with Miami if the Dolphins lose. A loss takes the Payments out of the division race and provides them a coin flip shot (50.2%) on the playoffs. There is not a lot on the road for the Patriots, who solely have a 0.1% probability on the No. 1 choose in the event that they lose. Learn extra.

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Accidents: Patriots | Payments

What to know for fantasy: Since becoming a member of the Payments, Stefon Diggs has averaged 10.1 targets and 21.5 fantasy factors in opposition to the Patriots. 4 of the previous 5 video games he is had eight or extra targets. Since 2021, Diggs has averaged solely 11.4 fantasy factors throughout December. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Payments are 0-7 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) of their previous seven video games as a double-digit favourite together with the playoffs (0-3 ATS this season). Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Payments 28, Patriots 13Walder’s choose: Payments 27, Patriots 12FPI prediction: BUF, 87% (by a mean of 14.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Zappe, Ryland carry Patriots to win … A profession yr for Allen? It won’t seem like it, however it’s occurring

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: CHI -3.0 (37.5)

Storyline to observe: The Bears are in search of their fifth straight win at Soldier Area in what could possibly be quarterback Justin Fields’ remaining house recreation in Chicago. The Bears have a 95.7% probability to earn the No. 1 general choose (by way of Carolina) and is perhaps eyeing a quarterback within the draft. As for the Falcons, they’re averaging 13.6 factors per recreation on the street this season versus 22.9 at house. — Courtney Cronin

Daring prediction: Each the Falcons and Bears can have a 100-yard rusher Sunday — RB Bijan Robinson for Atlanta and Fields for Chicago. It’s going to be Fields’ first 100-yard dashing recreation since Nov. 19 in opposition to Detroit and Robinson’s first since Oct. 1 in opposition to Jacksonville. However each gamers have discovered rhythms of late, resulting in a run-heavy recreation between two groups that wish to hold the ball on the bottom. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Fields has a 4-3 document in his previous seven begins. He had misplaced 12 straight begins prior.

Matchup X issue: Falcons linebacker Nate Landman. The Bears are a run-heavy crew, however Landman is the counter to that as a run-stopping off-ball linebacker. He ranks seventh in run cease win fee (39.9%) amongst linebackers this season. — Walder

What’s at stake: Each of those groups are alive, however they want a win and assist. It is a bit extra easy for the Falcons, who’ve a 12.3% probability of creating the playoffs with a win and 6.7% in the event that they lose. Unusually, Atlanta’s possibilities to win the NFC South will not change with the end result, as they’re fully depending on the Bucs dropping to the Saints. The Bears have very slim playoff hopes, as a win would give them a 0.3% probability on the postseason. Learn extra.

Accidents: Falcons | Bears

What to know for fantasy: Robinson will seem in lots of beginning lineups, however do not overlook RB Tyler Allgeier. He has averaged 10.4 touches over the previous 5 video games. And the Bears’ protection has given up the Twelfth-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Six of the previous eight Bears video games have gone below the whole. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Bears 23, Falcons 21Walder’s choose: Falcons 20, Bears 17FPI prediction: ATL, 51.1% (by a mean of 0.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: WR London’s mother and father have attended virtually all his NFL video games … Bears’ Sweat handing over finest season of his profession … How the Falcons can win the NFC South, clinch a wild-card berth

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: IND -3.5 (43.5)

Storyline to observe: The Raiders below interim coach Antonio Pierce have held 4 of their seven opponents below 100 yards dashing. In the meantime, the Colts have been all of the sudden inconsistent with their floor recreation, restricted to fewer than 100 whole dashing yards in three of their previous 4 video games after surpassing the 100-yard mark in seven of their first 11 contests. The Colts are hoping to have each prime backs, Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, wholesome for the primary time since Nov. 26. — Stephen Holder

Daring prediction: Raiders All-Professional receiver Davante Adams, coming off a 4-yard efficiency in opposition to the Chiefs, can have greater than 100 yards receiving and a landing in opposition to the Colts. Adams, who wants simply 28 receiving yards for his fourth straight 1,000-yard season, has a landing catch in every of his three profession video games in opposition to the Colts, with no less than 100 receiving yards previously two conferences. Indianapolis, which has the league’s No. 14-ranked go protection, has not given up 100 yards to a receiver since Week 8 (the Saints’ Rashid Shaheed). — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: The Raiders have had a number of defensive touchdowns in every of the previous two weeks. In the event that they do it once more in opposition to the Colts, it is going to be an NFL document for consecutive video games with a number of defensive touchdowns.

Matchup X issue: Colts proper deal with Braden Smith. He is coming back from harm and instantly has to guard quarterback Gardner Minshew from pass-rusher Maxx Crosby. Smith’s 90% go block win fee this season is a bit above common. — Walder

What’s at stake: This can be a huge recreation for each groups. A win offers the Colts a 63.4% probability of creating the playoffs and a 28.1% probability to win the AFC South; these percentages fall to twenty.6% and three.9%, respectively, with a loss. As for Vegas, the maths is easy — a win retains the Raiders alive, a loss extinguishes their playoff hopes. The Raiders would have a 34.3% probability on the playoffs with a victory and would keep alive for the AFC West title (2.9%) if the Bengals beat the Chiefs. Learn extra.

Accidents: Raiders | Colts

What to know for fantasy: Colts RB Taylor has had a tumultuous season however has averaged 17.0 touches per recreation. Underneath Pierce, the Raiders have improved their protection, however Las Vegas nonetheless permits the Eleventh-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in seven video games since hiring Pierce and 4-1 ATS of their previous 5 as underdogs. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Colts 20, Raiders 16Walder’s choose: Colts 23, Raiders 19FPI prediction: IND, 60.4% (by a mean of three.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders nonetheless have probability at playoffs with two video games left … How the Colts can win AFC South, make playoffs … Antonio Pierce constructing case for Raiders’ head-coaching job … Colts place security Blackmon on IR with shoulder harm

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: LAR -5.5 (44.5)

Storyline to observe: The Rams are at present the sixth seed within the NFC with a 75.3% probability of reaching the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. A large a part of that projection is that they’re a reasonably substantial favourite on the street in opposition to the Giants. An upset loss would put the Rams in a precarious place with a street recreation in opposition to the 49ers on deck. — Jordan Raanan

Daring prediction: Rams WR Puka Nacua can have no less than 147 receiving yards to go Invoice Groman (1,473) for probably the most by a rookie in NFL historical past. Nacua has 4 video games with no less than 147 receiving yards this season, and the Giants’ protection ranks twentieth in go DVOA, permitting a mean of 229.7 passing yards per recreation. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Rams have scored 28-plus factors in 5 straight video games, the longest lively streak within the NFL and the Rams’ longest because the 2018 season (six video games).

Matchup X issue: Giants quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Whereas Tommy DeVito’s run was enjoyable, Taylor, who was named the starter this week, needs to be an improve. Since 2020, Taylor has a 41 QBR, nicely forward of DeVito’s 22 this yr. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Rams may punch their postseason ticket this week with a win and a Seahawks loss or a win and a tie within the Packers-Vikings recreation. Both method, a win is essential, because the Rams would go from 85.6% to make the playoffs with a win to 22.3% with a loss — an expansion of 63.3%. The Giants had been eradicated in Week 16 however have a 74% probability of getting a top-five choose within the upcoming draft. Learn extra.

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Accidents: Rams | Giants

What to know for fantasy: Rams QB Matthew Stafford has surpassed 30 or extra go makes an attempt and scored 18 or extra fantasy factors in 5 consecutive video games. Over the previous two weeks, the Giants’ protection has given up excellent performances to Derek Carr (20.3) and Jalen Hurts (23.4). Stafford is firmly on the QB1 radar. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Rams have coated 5 straight video games, the longest lively streak within the NFL. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Rams 31, Giants 17Walder’s choose: Rams 26, Giants 17FPI prediction: LAR, 82.2% (by a mean of 12.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Rams relishing in newfound extensive receiver depth … Giants to begin Taylor over DeVito at QB vs. Rams

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: PHI -11.0 (48.5)

Storyline to observe: Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon makes his return to Philly. The previous Eagles defensive coordinator had a bumpy exit, together with his protection yielding 17 fourth-quarter factors in an excruciating 38-35 loss to the Chiefs within the Tremendous Bowl. The Eagles’ protection, ranked No. 2 general below Gannon in 2022, has struggled for a lot of the season, prompting a change from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia as defensive playcaller. Gannon and the Cardinals will attempt to play spoiler in opposition to an Eagles crew that’s tied with the 49ers and Lions for the most effective document within the convention and trying to safe a prime seed within the NFC playoffs. — Tim McManus

Daring prediction: Each offenses will achieve 350 yards and rating no less than 21 factors as a result of neither protection can decelerate opposing offenses. The Cardinals are giving up 363 whole yards and 26.9 factors per recreation, and the Eagles are permitting 346 whole yards and 24.4 factors per recreation. However this is the catch: The Cardinals have not scored greater than 30 factors this season regardless of scoring 24 or extra factors six occasions. Philadelphia has reached 30 factors six occasions and has exceeded 350 whole yards eight occasions — however simply as soon as previously month. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: The Eagles are 12-1 when A.J. Brown has a receiving landing and 13-6 when he does not. Brown is in search of to keep away from a fifth straight recreation with out catching a TD go.

Matchup X issue: Eagles cornerback James Bradberry. He has allowed 17 EPA as the closest defender this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, which is thirteenth worst amongst outdoors corners with no less than 250 protection snaps. It is a far cry from Bradberry’s stellar play a yr in the past, and the Eagles want extra from him. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Eagles are already within the playoffs and might clinch the NFC East with a win and a loss or tie by the Cowboys. However even when the Eagles do not clinch, their possibilities to win the division could be a strong 92.3% with a win, with a 30.2% probability of grabbing the NFC’s prime seed and home-field benefit. A loss drops the Eagles to 40.3% to win the division and just one.3% at home-field benefit. The Cardinals can nonetheless get the No. 1 choose with a loss, as they’d have a 3.8% probability of selecting first. They’re in good condition to get the No. 2 choose, although. Learn extra.

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Accidents: Cardinals | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray faces an Eagles protection that offers up the second-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. Philadelphia ranks sixth in go rush win fee — this might result in Murray accumulating dashing yards. The Eagles’ protection additionally offers up probably the most fantasy factors per recreation to extensive receivers. When Marquise Brown has seven or extra targets with Murray below middle, he averages 15.0 fantasy factors per recreation. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Eagles are 0-8 ATS of their previous seven video games in December or later. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Eagles 38, Cardinals 17Walder’s choose: Eagles 28, Cardinals 17FPI prediction: PHI, 80.9% (by a mean of 11.6 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Will Cardinals commerce or hold choose in the event that they get No. 2 slot? … Eagles nonetheless feeling results of Jonathan Gannon’s messy exit

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: TB -2.5 (42,5)

Storyline to observe: Dubbed the “Battle for the South,” the Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win over New Orleans on Sunday. This recreation comes at an excellent time for Tampa Bay, which is on a four-game profitable streak and has received the previous three conferences in opposition to the Saints. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is one landing go away from tying his rookie season career-high of 27. — Jenna Laine

Daring prediction: The Saints hand over 100 yards to Bucs receiver Mike Evans. Evans hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving recreation in opposition to the Saints since 2018, when he had seven catches for 147 yards. The Saints have contained Evans nicely when beginning cornerback Marshon Lattimore was matched up in opposition to him, however Lattimore will not be coming off IR this week. The Saints struggled to comprise the Rams’ receivers final week, resulting in the momentary benching of slot nook Alontae Taylor, and Evans has been a think about virtually each recreation he has performed this season. — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: Mayfield and Evans have related on 13 landing passes. That is tied for the sixth most by a duo of their first season collectively in NFL historical past.

Matchup X issue: Buccaneers cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean. Collectively they’ve allowed 36 whole EPA as the closest defender, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. That is not nice! And Sunday they’re going to must cope with WR Chris Olave. — Walder

What’s at stake: It is fairly easy for the Buccaneers, as a win offers them their third consecutive NFC South title and fourth straight playoff berth. Tampa continues to be the odds-on favourite to win the division and make the playoffs even when it loses, although, because the Bucs are at 71.1% to perform each. The Saints must win to remain alive, as they’re eradicated with a loss. A win offers New Orleans an opportunity to make the playoffs (20.9%) and win the division (16%) in Week 18. Learn extra.

Accidents: Saints | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Derek Carr has scored 20 or extra fantasy factors in two consecutive video games. He faces a Buccaneers protection that offers up the eighth-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Buccaneers are 1-6 outright in opposition to groups at present with profitable information (4-3 ATS), profitable final week in opposition to the Jaguars. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Buccaneers 30, Saints 26Walder’s choose: Saints 26, Buccaneers 20FPI prediction: NO, 51.8% (by a mean of 0.7 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Saints in must-win mode as playoff likelihood is thinning … Bucs trying to clinch division, playoff spot vs. Saints … Mayfield leads Buccaneers to fourth straight win

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: SF -12.5 (49.5)

Storyline to observe: Former Washington defensive finish Chase Younger makes his return, two months after the crew traded him to San Francisco. Younger recorded 5 sacks in seven video games with Washington and has 2.5 in seven video games with San Francisco, although he has been a backup with the 49ers after beginning for the Commanders. Of his 53 go rush wins, in response to ESPN Stats & Data, 38 got here with Washington. He’ll get an opportunity to sack Commanders quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who’s slated to make his first begin of the season. However Brissett was added to the harm report with a hamstring harm and is listed as questionable. In two aid appearances and 25 dropbacks, Brissett has not been sacked. — John Keim

Daring prediction: RB Christian McCaffrey scores three touchdowns to develop into the Niners’ single-season document holder. McCaffrey has 21 touchdowns (dashing and receiving mixed) via 15 video games, leaving him two wanting Jerry Rice’s franchise document of 23 (which Rice did in simply 12 video games in 1987). This can be a favorable matchup for McCaffrey and the Niners’ offense as Washington is twenty third in yards per rush allowed (4.5) and dashing yards allowed (1,840). The Commanders have additionally given up 597 receiving yards to operating backs, which ranks twenty seventh within the NFL. Search for McCaffrey to do injury via the air and on the bottom on his approach to a record-breaking day. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: With a win, the 49ers would have 12-plus wins in consecutive seasons for the primary time since 1996-98.

Matchup X issue: Brissett. Sam Howell’s play deteriorated in latest weeks, with only a 36 QBR since Week 10. Brissett needs to be an improve, and, in actual fact, the betting line has shrunk because it opened and Ron Rivera introduced Brissett because the starter. In different phrases: That is a robust signal the betting markets have extra religion in Brissett. — Walder

What’s at stake: The 49ers can wrap up the No. 1 seed, a bye and home-field benefit with a win and losses by the Lions and Eagles. Even when they do not clinch, the Niners are at 79.2% to get the highest seed with a win, however a loss would drop these odds all the way in which to 16.2%. The Commanders nonetheless have faint hopes of getting the No. 1 choose with a loss (0.7%). Learn extra.

Accidents: 49ers | Commanders

What to know for fantasy: The Commanders’ protection has allowed the second-most receiving yards and second-most touchdowns per recreation to extensive receivers. You will need to have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in lineups. Additionally, the Commanders have given up the sixth-most receiving yards per recreation to operating backs, which is sweet information for McCaffrey. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The 49ers have coated 4 straight on the street and 4 straight as street favorites. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: 49ers 40, Commanders 14Walder’s choose: 49ers 30, Commanders 13FPI prediction: SF, 77.6% (by a mean of 10.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Ward rising into lockdown nook for 49ers … Commanders to begin backup Brissett at QB

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: JAX -6.5 (37.5)

Storyline to observe: Solely the Commanders’ Sam Howell (60) has been sacked greater than Panthers rookie QB Bryce Younger (53), which is an effective signal for a struggling Jaguars go rush. Jaguars LB Josh Allen has 13.5 sacks (he wants another to tie the franchise’s single-season document), however his crew recorded simply 32 whole. On the flip facet, the Panthers have the league’s worst go rush (21 sacks), and the Jaguars’ offensive line ranks thirtieth in go block win fee (49.4%), per ESPN Stats & Data. If Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence cannot go due to an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder, backup C.J. Beathard can be in at quarterback. — Mike DiRocco

Daring prediction: Younger, who did not have a 300-yard passing recreation till this previous Sunday in opposition to Inexperienced Bay, can have his second in opposition to a Jaguars protection ranked twenty ninth in opposition to the go (257.1 passing yards allowed per recreation) and twenty seventh in sacks. He’ll even have a career-high 4 landing passes. — David Newton

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 0-4 in December. Solely three groups within the Tremendous Bowl period have made the playoffs after going winless in December: the 2022 Dolphins, 2000 Vikings and 1969 Rams.

Matchup X issue: The Jaguars’ protection. Whereas each side have been severely missing of late, the protection has been the most important distinction between the Jaguars in Weeks 1-12 and their present four-game dropping streak in Weeks 13-16. Fortuitously for Jacksonville, the Panthers characterize a chance to get again on observe. — Walder

What’s at stake: Regardless of their dropping skid, the Jaguars can win the AFC South on Sunday with a win and losses by the Texans and Colts. Even when they do not clinch, Jacksonville is at 88.1% to make the playoffs and 79.7% to win the division with a victory. These odds drop to 51.5% and 26.8%, respectively, with a loss. A Panthers loss would lock up the No. 1 choose for the Bears (who acquired the Panthers’ 2024 No. 1 choose within the commerce for the No. 1 choose in 2023), however Carolina’s choose would nonetheless have an 82.7% probability of being No. 1 even when the Panthers pull an upset. Learn extra.

Accidents: Panthers | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: Younger had his finest fantasy efficiency (22.2) in opposition to the Packers in Week 16. Now, the rookie faces a Jaguars protection in Week 17 that offers up the third-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. That is excellent news for D.J. Chark Jr. The Jaguars have given up the eighth-most fantasy factors per recreation to extensive receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Seven of the previous 9 Panthers video games have gone below the whole. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Panthers 24, Jaguars 20Walder’s choose: Jaguars 23, Panthers 14FPI prediction: JAX, 78.0% (by a mean of 10.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Brown having spectacular season on NFL-worst Panthers … Is TE Engram the important thing to the Jaguars’ offense in closing weeks? … QB Lawrence feels higher however will restrict throwing this week

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: BAL -3.0 (46.5)

Storyline to observe: This can be a showdown between the NFL’s highest-scoring offense within the Dolphins (29 offensive factors per recreation) and the league’s stingiest protection within the Ravens (16.3 factors allowed per recreation). It is the fourth time that the No. 1 scoring offense has confronted the No. 1 scoring protection within the remaining two weeks of the common season because the 1970 merger. The crew with the highest-scoring offense has received three of the 4 conferences. — Jamison Hensley

Daring prediction: With Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle not anticipated to play, the Dolphins’ passing recreation will take a success — however their run recreation will make up for it. Each Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane surpass 80 dashing yards in a Miami upset victory. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Dolphins have used movement on 82% of their offensive performs this season, the very best fee within the NFL. On Sunday, Miami will face a Ravens protection that has been glorious dealing with movement, permitting the second-fewest yards per try (6.0) and yards per rush (5.3).

Matchup X issue: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Why? As a result of since Week 8, the Dolphins’ protection ranks first in EPA per play. Miami is firing on all cylinders, and Jackson goes to must orchestrate an offense round that dominant protection. Whereas Jackson is essentially thought-about an MVP candidate, he additionally ranks solely eighth in QBR. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Ravens could be sitting fairly with a win, as a victory would clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field benefit within the AFC playoffs. After the Browns received Thursday night time, the Ravens want a win to clinch the AFC North. A loss would drop the Ravens’ possibilities on the No. 1 seed to 41.1%. The Dolphins may clinch their division Sunday, as a win or a Payments loss locks up the AFC East. A win would additionally give the Dolphins a strong shot at locking up the No. 1 seed (55.7%), with a loss eliminating that chance. A loss and a Buffalo win arrange a Week 18 matchup for the division crown, with a 55.5% probability of the Dolphins profitable the AFC East title. Learn extra.

Accidents: Dolphins | Ravens

What to know for fantasy: Tagovailoa hasn’t scored 20 fantasy factors since Week 8 in opposition to the Patriots. The Ravens’ protection offers up the third-fewest fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. Baltimore protection has additionally given up the sixth-fewest fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. Achane has been phenomenal this season however has averaged solely 10.6 touches over the previous three video games. In that time-frame, Mostert has averaged 17.0 touches. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins have didn’t cowl three straight as an underdog, in addition to three straight as a street underdog. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Ravens 24, Dolphins 21Walder’s choose: Dolphins 23, Ravens 20FPI prediction: BAL, 55.6% (by a mean of 1.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Dolphins dispute ‘cuteness’ label as they put together for Ravens … Jackson, Ravens attempt to hold ‘stage head,’ ignore No. 1 crew discuss … Supply: Dolphins’ Waddle anticipated to overlook recreation vs. Ravens

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: HOU -5.5 (43.5)

Storyline to observe: The Texans management their future. In the event that they win, they’re going to be within the postseason. The Titans face a special model of the Texans, as rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol. Earlier than Stroud suffered a concussion, he led the league in passing yards (3,631) and threw 20 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. The Texans’ offense with Stroud ranked tenth in scoring (23.8 per recreation) and was sixth in whole offense (373.1). With out him, the offense averaged 295 yards and 17 factors. Stroud will face the league’s second-best pink zone protection, which permits touchdowns on simply 38.2% of pink zone drives. — DJ Bien-Aime

Daring prediction: Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins can have 100 receiving yards and surpass 1,000 yards on the season. Hopkins has posted three 100-yard receiving video games this season. Houston’s protection is permitting 247.8 passing yards per recreation, so it is going to be a chief alternative for Hopkins to have an excellent recreation in opposition to his former crew. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: With a loss, the Titans would lose 11 video games in a season for first time since 2015 (3-13).

Matchup X issue: Texans extensive receiver Noah Brown and tight finish Dalton Schultz. Even with Stroud again, this Texans offense nonetheless is lacking WR Tank Dell. At occasions, Brown and Schultz have confirmed up in main methods. Houston wants one among them to return via to get the offense again on observe. — Walder

What’s at stake: A win for the Texans offers them mainly a 50/50 shot to qualify for the playoffs subsequent week (50.5%) and a puncher’s probability at taking the AFC South (20.1%). A loss wouldn’t be type to Houston, lowering its playoff odds to 23.4% and its AFC South hopes to just one.7%. The Titans are eradicated from the playoffs, however a loss would improve their possibilities at a top-five choose. Learn extra.

Weekly NFL recreation knowledgeable picks

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Accidents: Titans | Texans

What to know for fantasy: This season, Texans WR Nico Collins has averaged 34.1 fantasy factors when he has been focused 9 occasions or extra. The Titans’ protection has given up the fifth-most receiving yards per recreation to extensive receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 1-8 ATS of their previous 9 in opposition to groups with profitable information. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Texans 27, Titans 21Walder’s choose: Texans 23, Titans 13FPI prediction: HOU, 51.5% (by a mean of 0.6 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Texans’ Stroud clears concussion protocol, to begin vs. Titans … Texans choose up twice-suspended security Jackson … How the Jags, Colts, Texans can win AFC South, make playoffs

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: SEA -3.5 (41.5)

Storyline to observe: Whereas the Seahawks’ run protection has faltered of late, their go protection has been significantly better. After permitting roughly 3.6 go performs per recreation of no less than 20 yards over the primary 14 weeks, Seattle is the one crew that has not allowed one such completion over the previous two weeks. Pittsburgh, in the meantime, acquired landing catches from George Pickens of 86 and 66 yards in addition to one other 44-yard reception final week. If Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon returns from the hip pointer that has sidelined him many of the previous three video games, the Witherspoon-Pickens matchup can be a must-watch. — Brady Henderson

Daring prediction: The Steelers can have their first 100-yard rusher since Week 11. The Seahawks have given up 171 dashing yards per recreation of their previous three outings, the second worst mark within the NFL. After struggling for the higher a part of the previous month, the Steelers dedicated to the run recreation in opposition to the Bengals and ran the ball 30 occasions for 113 yards, with Najee Harris accounting for 78 of these. With QB Mason Rudolph stretching the sphere and opening up the offense with deep, vertical passes, anticipate the Steelers to maintain discovering room to run in opposition to the Seahawks. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Seahawks’ receiver DK Metcalf has 5 receiving touchdowns previously 4 video games after scoring three in his first 10 video games.

Matchup X issue: Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. We have highlighted him a couple of occasions, however his function in opposition to Seattle’s robust receiver group is paramount. Porter ranks second in yards per protection snap allowed and eighth in EPA allowed amongst outdoors corners with no less than 250 protection snaps. — Walder

What’s at stake: A 3rd straight win would lock the Seahawks into the playoffs if the Packers-Vikings recreation ends in a tie. Even when that does not occur, the Seahawks are in good condition with a win, as their possibilities to make the playoffs would develop to 87.7%. A loss does not finish Seattle’s postseason possibilities, however it might scale back them to 41.7%. The Steelers additionally aren’t out with a loss, however their playoff hopes would fall to five.5%. A win offers Pittsburgh a bit extra hope, growing its playoff proportion to 23.2%. Learn extra.

Accidents: Steelers | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: The Seahawks’ protection has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. This season, Harris has averaged 15.1 touches per recreation, whereas Jaylen Warren has averaged 12. There’s a place for each in fantasy lineups, particularly for managers in deeper codecs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: 5 of the previous six Seahawks video games in opposition to AFC groups have gone below the whole. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Seahawks 24, Steelers 21Walder’s choose: Seahawks 22, Steelers 19FPI prediction: SEA, 67.1% (by a mean of 5.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Steelers’ Rudolph to begin once more if Pickett nonetheless out … Geno’s impression felt in return to discipline

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: DEN -3.5 (36.5)

Storyline to observe: Broncos coach Sean Payton benched quarterback Russell Wilson this week after Payton had publicly — once more — expressed his frustration over the offense’s efficiency within the loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday. Wilson’s substitute, Jarrett Stidham, will face a Chargers protection ranked twenty ninth general, permitting 372.6 yards per recreation. Stidham has an opportunity over the following two video games to stake a declare to compete for the beginning job subsequent season. The Broncos additionally waived a defensive captain Monday in Kareem Jackson, so how this crew seems to be on the sphere will bear watching given the 2 gamers’ standing within the locker room. — Jeff Legwold

Daring prediction: The Chargers have the texture of a crew reenergized below interim coach Giff Smith, whom gamers have lauded for his old-school, tough-love strategy that’s uniform from stars to reserves. Of their first recreation below Smith, the Chargers almost beat the Buffalo Payments — a crew that had blown out the hovering Cowboys per week earlier than — with out prime goal Keenan Allen and with a third-string middle and a backup quarterback. With the Broncos recent off per week of turmoil, the Chargers may spoil Denver’s slim playoff hopes on New Yr’s Eve. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: The Broncos’ protection has registered 15 sacks previously 4 video games, and opposing quarterbacks have been held to a 34.9 Whole QBR since Week 13, almost 25 factors higher than within the Broncos’ first 12 video games.

Matchup X issue: Stidham. He is mainly a complete wild card having not thrown a single go as a Bronco. He ought to have a straightforward first project in opposition to the Chargers, however Denver’s possibilities will rely rather a lot on what sort of quarterback they’ve Sunday. — Walder

What’s at stake: The playoffs and the AFC West are nonetheless in play for the Broncos with a win, as they’d have a 7.7% probability to make the postseason and a 2.6% to win the division (would want the Chiefs to lose, too). A loss would remove Denver and be the eighth straight season out of the playoffs. The Chargers cannot get the No. 1 choose, however they at present have an 18.2% at a top-five choice within the 2024 draft. Learn extra.

Accidents: Chargers | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has averaged 18.4 touches and 19.2 fantasy factors per recreation in opposition to the Broncos since 2021. Denver’s protection has steadily improved, however the Broncos nonetheless hand over the second-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chargers are 2-5 ATS of their previous seven video games. They’ve gone below their whole in 10 of their previous 13 (going over final week). Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Broncos 17, Chargers 14Walder’s choose: Broncos 16, Chargers 13FPI prediction: DEN, 53.1% (by a mean of 1.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Why the Chargers are one of many NFL’s most irritating groups … Has QB Wilson performed his remaining recreation for the Broncos?

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: KC -7.0 (44.5)

Storyline to observe: If this recreation is something like Chiefs-Bengals conferences from latest seasons, it’s going to come right down to the top. Their 4 video games from the previous two years — two within the common season, two within the AFC Championship Recreation — have been determined by precisely three factors. If it is a related state of affairs this time, it has to favor the Bengals. The Chiefs have been unable to rally for a win within the fourth quarter this season. — Adam Teicher

Daring prediction: Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice goes for 125 receiving yards. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will make it a degree to maintain Travis Kelce from doing vital injury in opposition to Cincinnati. This could depart lots of favorable matchups for Rice, who has a team-high 41 targets for Kansas Metropolis within the earlier 4 video games. — Ben Child

Stat to know: Mahomes wants 329 passing yards to go Len Dawson (28,507) for many in Chiefs’ franchise historical past.

Matchup X issue: Bengals extensive receiver Tyler Boyd. If Ja’Marr Chase is out once more, simply a lot falls on the shoulders of Tee Higgins. Jake Browning and the Bengals want a second weapon, and Boyd, if he performs at his finest, could be that. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up their eighth consecutive AFC West crown with a win or losses by the Raiders and Broncos. Even when the Chiefs do not clinch the division, a win ensures a playoff spot. Kansas Metropolis continues to be in a robust place to make the playoffs (92.8%) and win the division (90.8%) even when it loses. There’s extra volatility for the Bengals, as a win offers Cincinnati a 50.5% of creating the playoffs, whereas a loss drops these odds to 7.4%. Learn extra.

Accidents: Bengals | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: Rice faces a Bengals protection that offers up the ninth-most fantasy factors per recreation to extensive receivers. Over the previous 5 video games, he has averaged 10.0 targets and 18.6 fantasy factors. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 10-18 ATS of their previous 28 video games when laying no less than a landing. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Chiefs 34, Bengals 20Walder’s choose: Chiefs 27, Bengals 23FPI prediction: KC, 72.8% (by a mean of 8.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Bengals routed by Steelers as payoff hopes dwindle … Kelce goes off on Chiefs’ struggles: ‘Not only one man’

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Unfold: MIN -1.0 (44.5)

Storyline to observe: The Vikings are as soon as once more turning to rookie QB Jaren Corridor, largely as a result of they’re out of choices after Nick Mullens threw six interceptions in two begins and Joshua Dobbs was unable to maneuver the offense on the finish of his stint as a starter. Ordinarily, Corridor’s grand whole of twenty-two earlier offensive snaps on the NFL stage could be a priority in a recreation with such apparent playoff implications. However the Vikings are lucky that he can be enjoying in opposition to a Packers go protection that has allowed a 62.3 QBR to opposing quarterbacks because the begin of Week 11, the fourth-worst defensive mark within the league over that interval. — Kevin Seifert

Daring prediction: The Packers can have their first 100-yard receiver of the season. This after Aaron Jones gave them their first 100-yard rusher of the season in Sunday’s win at Carolina. It isn’t that the Vikings are giving up gobs of yards via the air — they rank seventeenth within the league, permitting 225.5 passing yards per recreation — however it’s certain to occur for Inexperienced Bay. Christian Watson has twice had video games within the 90-yard vary. Dontayvion Wicks has a 97-yard outing, Romeo Doubs has a 95-yard recreation and Jayden Reed has two within the 80s. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Vikings are 1-8 when dropping the turnover battle this season — probably the most such defeats within the NFL. They’re 6-0 once they do not lose the turnover differential. The Vikings’ 30 turnovers are tied with the Jets for second most in NFL this season (Browns, 32) and are the Vikings’ most since 2013 (32).

Matchup X issue: Packers cornerbacks Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes. With Jaire Alexander suspended, these two will seemingly must cope with Justin Jefferson in what guarantees to be a troublesome project. — Walder

What’s at stake: That is just about a must-win recreation for each groups. There’s extra of a spread for the Packers, who would have a greater than 50-50 shot on the playoffs with a win (52.2%) however could be getting ready to elimination with a loss (0.4%). It isn’t as excessive an expansion for the Vikings, however they should win; their playoff hopes go from 39.3% with a win to 2.2% with a loss. Learn extra.

What to know for the 2024 NFL draft

• Mocks: Miller | Reid | High 10 debate• Ranks: Kiper | Reid | Yates | Miller• QB Scorching Board | Scouts on the QB class• Place ranks | Grades | Order | Extra

Accidents: Packers | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: WR Okay.J. Osborn has averaged 20.5 fantasy factors per recreation over his profession when he has seen seven or extra targets. After dropping T.J. Hockenson for the season, Osborn is predicted to play a bigger function within the Vikings’ passing recreation. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Prime-time unders are 33-17 this season and 156-102-4 (.605) over the previous 5 seasons. Learn extra.

Moody’s choose: Packers 21, Vikings 20Walder’s choose: Vikings 23, Packers 20FPI prediction: GB, 52.7% (by a mean of 1.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Packers get ‘that dude’ Jones again simply in time … Vikings bench QB Mullens, to begin rookie Corridor … Packers droop CB Alexander one recreation after coin-toss mix-up … Vikings TE Hockenson out for season with torn ACL, MCL