In relation to NFL participant props, there may be at all times loads of totally different choices to select from heading into the season. Let’s check out the highest participant prop choices and betting odds from PFN Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content material Officer David Bearman, in addition to betting and fantasy analysts BJ Rudell and Jason Katz.
NFL Participant Props Predictions
Wingo: Joe Burrow over 4,425.5 go yards (-115 on Caesars)
Whereas Patrick Mahomes is at all times the place we start with QB participant props, I’m actually interested by Joe Burrow’s numbers this yr. This could possibly be the final season the Bengals’ core — as we all know it — is collectively.
Large contracts are coming for each Burrow and Chase pretty quickly. This can be the Bengals’ final nice run with all these weapons on offense. Burrow’s passing yards could possibly be spectacular this yr.
Wingo: Justin Fields to steer NFL in QB dashing yards (+175 on Caesars)
I really like the thought of Justin FIelds as soon as once more main the league in QB dashing yards, and I’m not positive anybody else is a sensible menace to him having that crown, barring accidents.
Wingo: Jonathan Taylor (+750) or Nick Chubb (+650) to steer NFL in dashing
In relation to dashing yards, I’d avoid Derrick Henry this season. Ultimately, the slowdown comes for everybody, and it seems like Tennessee is trying to diversify its offense so it’s not practically as closely depending on King Henry. Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb appear to be the good performs right here.
Bearman: Tua Tagovailoa over 3,800.5 passing yards (-110 on DraftKings)
In components of 13 video games final yr, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 3,548 yards, which is 273 yards per recreation in his first yr in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Add in yet another recreation — only one — and you might be already over the three,800-yard mark wanted for this prop. Can Tua keep wholesome for 14 video games? The Dolphins’ season is relying on it, so if he does, he should not have any drawback hitting this mark.
And I used the phrase “components” in italics as a result of he was knocked out of three contests and nonetheless hit 3,548 yards. It’s a threat together with his previous well being historical past, however so is betting typically.
Bearman: Cooper Kupp to steer NFL in receptions (+500 on DraftKings)
In 2021, Kupp averaged 8.5 receptions a recreation en path to breaking the NFL single-season report with 145 whole and profitable Offensive Participant of the Yr. Final yr for an encore, he was averaging 9 catches a recreation earlier than getting injured. At that tempo, he may’ve had 159 catches. He’s the No. 1 and a couple of weapon on the Rams, and if wholesome, he’ll lead the league in receptions once more.
BJ: Justin Herbert over 4,450.5 receiving yards (-110 on DraftKings)
Betting the over on participant props usually carries added dangers as a result of any seemingly unanticipated damage can doom the most effective from the beginning. However Justin Herbert’s ceiling is simply too excessive to disregard.
Even after breaking his ribs final season and all too usually being pressured to lean on Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter within the passing recreation, the franchise QB nonetheless managed to rack up 4,739 passing yards.
That’s his life like ground heading into 2023, because of a better-than-ever receiving corps. I firmly imagine Herbert will break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing-yardage report this yr and that 6,000+ is doable.
Katz: Chase Claypool underneath 575.5 receiving yards (-115 on Ceasars)
That is simply my favourite season-long prop. Chase Claypool was an outright catastrophe for the Bears final season. He averaged a mere 20 receiving yards per recreation. That initiatives to only 340 over a full season. And he was speculated to be their WR2 reverse Darnell Mooney final yr.
Now, they’ve added D.J. Moore, and there are stories that Claypool isn’t actually attempting very exhausting, which ought to be a shock to completely nobody. Maybe Claypool has the expertise to be an NFL-caliber extensive receiver, however he doesn’t seem to have the work ethic. I don’t suppose he even will get to half this quantity.
Katz: Skyy Moore underneath 550.5 receiving yards (-115 on Caesars)
Don’t let OTA hype and coach converse idiot you; Skyy Moore might be by no means going to be something on the NFL stage. As a rookie, he managed simply 22 catches for 250 yards whereas enjoying with a quarterback who threw for five,250 yards. Moore couldn’t earn targets or climb a depth chart that includes the likes of Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson.
The crew was so enamored with Moore that they traded for Kadarius Toney simply to have another person they may placed on the sector as an alternative of him. I’ve zero confidence in Moore and don’t suppose he comes near this quantity.
Katz: Rachaad White underneath 800.5 dashing yards (-115 on Caesars)
There are actually not many constructive issues to say about Rachaad White’s rookie season. He was one of many least environment friendly backs in your entire league. White averaged 3.7 ypc and generated a paltry 2.54 yards created per contact. Simply 3.1% of his carries went for 15+ yards, forty fourth within the league.
All the “positives” about White come from his capability as a receiver. Which will assist his fantasy worth, however receiving proficiency will contribute nothing to White exceeding 800 dashing yards.
Katz: Alec Pierce underneath 550.5 receiving yards (-115 on Caesars)
Final season, Alec Pierce performed in 16 video games and caught 41 passes for 593 yards. He had a stable rookie yr. Whereas pure sophomore development is regular, there are a few causes Pierce is extra prone to regress by way of manufacturing.
First, the Colts are beginning a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who will take dozens of targets away from his receivers because of his dashing. Second, the Colts spent a second-round decide on Josh Downs, one other extensive receiver to compete with Pierce because the WR2 behind Michael Pittman Jr.
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With increased draft capital than Pierce, there’s a very actual probability Downs jumps him on the depth chart. Third, this initiatives to be a run-heavy crew with lots of RPOs, and people RPOs will doubtless lead to passes to Pittman.
Pierce will should be environment friendly on downfield throws to surpass this quantity. He may also want to remain wholesome. I don’t see it taking place.
NFL Participant Props Longshots
Wingo: Chris Jones leads NFL in sacks (+2500 on Caesars)
Right here’s a longshot for season sacks … Chris Jones. The Chiefs’ versatile DL is enjoying higher than ever heading into this season. Jones had 15.5 final season regardless of lining up all around the area.
Bearman: New Orleans Saints are the final undefeated crew (+3000 on DraftKings)
I maintain trying on the phrase “longshot” each time I take into consideration this one, so maintain that in thoughts. As I famous within the win totals column, the Saints have a fairly snug schedule and one which begins out extraordinarily simple: Tennessee at residence, highway video games at Carolina and Inexperienced Bay, after which residence vs. Tampa Bay earlier than going to New England and Houston.
Will they win all of them? Most likely not, however at 30-1, it’s price a shot at a 5-0 begin, hoping everybody else has one loss. After these 5 video games, they play Jacksonville, Indy, and Chicago — not a tricky slate. They aren’t the most effective crew however ought to win the division with that schedule.
BJ: Los Angeles Chargers highest-scoring crew (+1600 on DraftKings)
In 2021, the Chargers had been No. 5 within the NFL in factors per recreation. That’s a stable baseline getting into 2023, because of a loaded offense with the expertise and expertise to justify its “win-now” sensibilities. At their finest, Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler can maintain this offense chugging alongside.
Add in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and rookie Quentin Johnston, and it’s exhausting to see how defenses gradual them down. Lastly, think about the chip on this franchise’s shoulder after blowing a 24-0 lead within the playoffs. They’ve so much to show and maybe just one extra yr to show it with their present high-functioning personnel.
Katz: Bijan Robinson to steer the NFL in dashing (+1400 on DraftKings)
Method again in 2016, a rookie by the title of Ezekiel Elliott led the NFL in dashing with 1,631 yards. In fact, Derrick Henry wasn’t a factor but. And he poses the largest menace to Bijan Robinson. However the rookie has all of the expertise to do it and couldn’t ask for a greater touchdown spot.
The Falcons ran the ball 56% of the time in a impartial recreation script final season and 51% of the time in a adverse recreation script. They wish to run it doesn’t matter what. Robinson has an actual shot at 300+ carries this season. If he can keep wholesome and common over 5.0 ypc, that might be sufficient to place him within the working.
So much can occur over a full season. A mix of well being for him and a few video games missed from the opposite main candidates is all it might take for the rookie to safe the dashing title. At these odds, signal me up.
Katz: Payments, Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs, Lions, Saints, and 49ers to win their divisions parlay (+12859 on DraftKings)
These odds in all probability shifted a bit since I wager this a few months in the past, however if you’d like a super-mega “positively not going to occur” lengthy shot, right here you go. I used a free wager on this only for the enjoyable of it, but it surely’s in all probability extra affordable than your typical +12000 wager.
All of those groups venture to win their respective divisions. In fact, it hardly ever performs out that means. However we’re speaking about extraordinarily lengthy odds for seven groups that, individually, are anticipated to win their respective divisions.
