Cincinnati Bengals
A sluggish begin is acquainted territory for Cincinnati. In six seasons beneath Zac Taylor, the Bengals have began 0-2 5 instances. However dropping their opening three video games is new floor, and the percentages are actually stacked towards them. Solely 4 out of 162 groups which have began a season 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded format helps tilt the percentages barely in Cincy’s favor, however not by a lot.
If you happen to take the optimistic view, the Bengals have seemed flawed in all three video games this season however have been nonetheless solely a handful of performs away from going 3-0. The adverse view is that after once more they’ve struggled to evolve their offense, and for the primary time since Joe Burrow got here to city the protection has bottomed out.
By way of three weeks, the Bengals have the Thirtieth-ranked protection within the NFL by EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. And whereas that alone is sufficient to make a workforce twitchy, much more disconcerting are the under-the-hood figures. Cincy’s had a pass-rush win charge of simply 9.8% towards Washington on Monday night time. That’s not how usually pass-rushers got here near touching Jayden Daniels, it’s how usually defenders beat particular person blockers. In 10 years of recorded information, it’s the worst pass-rush efficiency on file.
Burrow and the offense present hope. After a dud towards the Patriots in week one, the offense has been high-quality – Burrow has thrown 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. If that may maintain, then the Bengals ought to be capable to sneak again into the wildcard race. They’ve a positive schedule over the following 4 weeks with video games towards the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens, which might see them nudge nearer to .500. However except they’re capable of finding some juice alongside the defensive position they’ll be out of the playoff image earlier than Thanksgiving.
Panic degree: 10/10
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is off to a sluggish begin. And there are many theories why. Is he podcasting an excessive amount of? Worrying about his movie profession? Spending an excessive amount of time with Tay? The almost definitely rationalization is straightforward: he’s a 34-year-old tight finish.
Taking part in tight finish is brutal and bruising. When the decline comes, it’s quick. And there have been warning indicators final yr that the tip is nearing. In 2023, he began slowly, caught hearth halfway by way of the calendar after which took one other dip towards the tip of the common season. Bar a few big video games towards the Payments and Raiders, Kelce had a tricky go of it throughout the Chiefs’ ultimate 9 regular-season video games. However by the point the playoffs rolled round, he was again to his finest.
This season might observe an identical trajectory. Though he’s ageing, Kelce remains to be able to being probably the most dynamic weapons within the league. He nonetheless has an unteachable reference to Patrick Mahomes that may bail KC’s offense out of tough spots. The times of him being a assured first down could also be gone, however he stays a giant play ready to occur.
Because the Chiefs work in a brand new group of receivers and look to a youthful tight finish, Noah Grey, to ease a few of the burden on Kelce, his numbers will take a dip – apologies to the fantasy crowd. However by the point the postseason rolls round, it will likely be Kelce that Mahomes nonetheless appears to on must-have-it downs, and he nonetheless has loads of tread on his tires to be a distinction maker.
Panic degree: 3/10
Dallas Cowboys
It’s a must to hand it to Dallas, they discover new, grotesque methods to entertain each season. If the postseason meltdowns weren’t sufficient, this season’s twist is a doozy: they’re allergic to stopping the run.
There may be nothing extra demoralizing for a workforce than having the ball slammed down their throat again and again. By way of three weeks, the Cowboys have fielded the worst run-defense within the league – and it’s not significantly shut. They rank thirty second in EPA per play; they’ve conceded extra explosive runs than any workforce within the league; they’ve whiffed on extra tackles than anybody. And there could also be no extra damning determine within the opening stage of the season than Dallas’ 6.18 common depth of sort out. That’s not a typo. The Cowboys are conceding six yards earlier than a defender even says howdy to a ball provider.
Loads goes into stopping the run. However it may be boiled down to 3 overriding rules: expertise, approach and tenacity. The Cowboys are missing in all three – and in any respect three ranges of the protection besides. Rewatch their matchups towards the Ravens or Saints and also you’ll see the defensive position being pushed backwards, linebackers flailing round, and descending safeties getting misplaced within the carnage earlier than them. It’s jarring, typically amateurish. Thus far, changes to the scheme and personnel haven’t eased the issue.
“We’ve bought to be detailed,” defensive again Jourdan Lewis mentioned on Monday. “I imply, on the finish of the day, this about us stopping folks. That’s simply what it’s.” The small print have been missing, however the Cowboys merely lack the our bodies upfront. Former first-round decide Mazi Smith has struggled to maintain up with NFL velocity at defensive sort out, they usually’ve cycled by way of a rotation of grizzled vets beside him whose finest days are lengthy gone.
Of all the issues which have undercut the Cowboys’ poor begin to the season, none is as destabilizing as their lack of ability to cease the run. And discovering a midseason answer will probably be a problem.
Panic degree: 8/10
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Jacksonville Jaguars
You recognize issues have reached five-alarm territory when a head coach is speaking about overhauling his total offense three weeks right into a season. “There must be modifications, whether or not it’s play design, personnel, every little thing,” Doug Pederson mentioned after Monday night time’s 47-10 loss to the Payments.
Of their final 10 quarters, Jacksonville have scored simply 23 factors and have transformed solely 18% of their third downs. However past the outcomes is the sense that Jacksonville’s offense has zero identification – no organizing precept. They play like a scholar who’s crammed for the check the night time earlier than. Every little thing appears sloppy. Nothing flows. It’s an offense devoid of concepts paired with a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who continues to overlook simple alternatives after they do arrive.
If we’re apportioning blame, then loads ought to go to Jaguars administration for an underbaked roster and a training workers that has left the offense trying unprepared. However Lawrence has his faults too. For all of his bodily expertise, he continues to make ugly, virtually inexplicable selections. On any given week, he’s as liable to ship a mind-numbing turnover as he’s the throw of the day. In some unspecified time in the future, inconsistency shouldn’t be some maddening behavior holding you again out of your full potential. It’s who you might be.
The way in which the schedule units up, Pederson might be out of a job by the point the Jaguars return from London in October.
Panic degree: 9/10
Caleb Williams
After clinching the title of offseason champions, the begin to the Bears’ precise season has been dispiriting. An offense anticipated to ship fireworks has sputtered. In the meantime, Chicago have been compelled to observe as Jayden Daniels units hearth to secondaries and Justin Fields guides the Steelers to a 3-0 file.
However any sense of panic must be muted. Caleb Williams could have arrived in Chicago with loads of hype, strolling into among the finest conditions in a very long time for a No 1 general decide at quarterback. The Bears surrounded their younger QB with a glitzy receiving corps. They invested closely of their offensive line. On the opposite aspect of the ball, they returned the majority of a protection that cracked the top-five by the tip of final season. However teething issues have been to be anticipated.
The early returns have been scattershot. Williams has made poor selections. At instances, the sport has moved too rapidly for him. His accuracy has been up and down, and he’s been anxious to interrupt away from the offense to attempt to create. However even amid the early hiccups, there are the flashes of the participant that Williams will hopefully turn out to be. Thus far, his offensive line has been a sieve, pushing him to indulge his freelancing behavior. If that tightens up even barely, then Williams will be capable to distribute the ball round extra successfully.
That early August optimism could have light and the remainder of the roster could also be additional away from playoff competition than anticipated. However because it pertains to Williams, Chicago ought to heed the phrases of a former foe.
Panic degree: 2/10
