Inexperienced Bay Packers (2-4)
The Packers are both an early-season disappointment or working proper on schedule, relying in your perspective.
The kindest preseason projection for a group filled with younger gamers went one thing alongside these strains: the Packers, adjusting to their post-Aaron Rodgers period, would stumble by means of the opening weeks of the season, iron out points by the midpoint of the yr and hit the gasoline down the stretch. That concept, although, banked on a few issues: that there can be flashes on offense and that the protection would, lastly, present indicators of rising. Neither has occurred.
A part of the thrill round Inexperienced Bay shifting on from Rodgers to Jordan Love was that they’d lastly have the ability to run Matt LaFleur’s offense, unedited. The Packers rank twelfth in EPA per play – a measure of the unit’s down-to-down effectiveness. However that quantity doesn’t inform the complete story. The Packers’ offense feels clunky and has been one of many worst teams within the league within the first half of video games. The younger unit – as anticipated – has made errors, the run recreation has vanished and Love is hitting subsequent to nothing over the center of the sphere, the world that LaFleur’s offense is designed to reveal.
The issues run deeper on protection. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry continues to get minimal manufacturing out of a gaggle stuffed with early draft picks and top-end expertise. They’re passive to the purpose of boredom – and this in a league the place defenses are experiencing a blitz-fueled renaissance.
In accordance with Aaron Schatz’s calculations, the Packers have round a 26% probability of reaching the postseason, largely resulting from the truth that, in a weak NFC, they may sneak right into a wildcard slot. Within the wider image, although, the again half of the season is about determining whether or not Love is the long-term reply at quarterback or not.
Verdict: Stutter to a seven-win report
LA Chargers (2-4)
Not even a brand new, high-flying offense has prevented the Chargers from Charger-ing this yr. They’ve misplaced three one-score video games already and the identical points which have plagued the Brandon Staley’s facet for 3 years have persevered. Dangerous protection. Dumb errors. Ailing-timed turnovers.
As soon as once more, Staley’s protection seems to be like a sieve. The Chargers rank thirty first in EPA per play on protection, forward of solely a traditionally poor Denver protection. Staley continues to be able to delivering nice, one-off gameplans. For a few seasons, that’s cute. However in yr three, for a defensive guru, that’s not near adequate.
Any hope for the Chargers this season rests on Justin Herbert’s arm. The group’s offense has been reinvigorated beneath Kellen Moore. By seven weeks, the Chargers have cracked the top-five in offensive manufacturing and hit the very best variety of explosive performs (13%) within the Herbert period. However regardless of the gaudy numbers, the Chargers offense has been rickety at occasions with Mike Williams off the sphere. Earlier than Williams’ season-ending damage, Herbert and Co have been pouring scorching lava over the league. With out Williams, it’s been extra of a grind.
There’s little extra that Herbert can squeeze out of the offense. It’s over to the protection to carry up its finish of the bragin. And what proof do we’ve got that Staley’s group can flip the swap?
If a group from the two-win group goes to make the postseason, it should in all probability be the Chargers. They’ve a comparatively type schedule over the following eight weeks and are able to grabbing a minimum of six wins in that span. However sneaking into the playoffs was not the plan. Successful all of it was the purpose. With the present state of the protection, the Chargers are a good distance from being true contenders within the AFC.
Verdict: Sneak into the playoffs and upset a contender within the wildcard spherical
Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Mercifully, the Titans’ long-awaited teardown has begun and it seems they’re now planning for the long run. They dealt away security Kevin Byard final week. By the point the commerce deadline has closed, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, Dan Brunskill, Ryan Tannehill and Denico Autry might have adopted Byard out the door.
In a jam-packed AFC, that’s the proper transfer. Nevertheless it means they’re unlikely to place a run of video games collectively within the second half of the season to sneak into the postseason.
Verdict: Excellent news for followers – a top-three decide seems to be seemingly
New England Patriots (2-5)
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The Patriots have appeared lifeless for a lot of the season. However in opposition to the Payments, they put into observe what they preached all offseason. They ran the ball nicely, sustained drives and performed robust, sensible protection. In the event that they’re in a position to replicate their efficiency in opposition to Buffalo, the Patriots might win 4 of their subsequent six video games: on the Dolphins; residence to the Commanders and Colts; on the Giants; residence to the Chargers; on the Steelers.
Nonetheless, there’s little you’ll be able to financial institution on with New England week-to-week. What ought to have been one of many league’s best defenses has been hit by accidents. Who is aware of if Ezekiel Elliott’s resurgence is actual? Which Mac Jones will present up in Week 8 or 9? Who’s he throwing the ball to?
The Patriots have sufficient teaching acumen to maintain video games shut. However at this level, the early-season deficit might be an excessive amount of to beat.
Verdict: Lose video games they need to win; win video games they need to lose; miss the playoffs
Chicago Bears (2-5)
Overlook the playoffs, the Bears are in survival mode. Staying aggressive the remainder of the way in which is the one shot the Bears employees and Justin Fields can have at protecting their jobs.
Final week’s win over the Raiders was a feelgood story. Tyson Bagent, who seems to be extra like a Waffle Home line prepare dinner than a beginning NFL quarterback, was excellent in aid obligation for Fields. However the underlying issues which have plagued the Bears for 18 months stay: the protection lacks a constant go rush and the offense lacks concepts and expertise.
Verdict: Bail on the season by Week 11 for a excessive draft decide
New York Giants (2-5)
The NFL is an odd league. Franchise development doesn’t all the time unfold alongside one neat, steady line. Final yr’s Giants lacked expertise however have been aggressive. They obtained by with a wonky offense and frenzied protection, and rode the 2 all the way in which to a playoff win.
This yr’s Giants are extra gifted than final yr’s group however have been terrible for a lot of the yr. The protection rediscovering a few of its 2022 kind over the previous two weeks has provided New York a lifeline. However with a porous offensive line and an absence of consistency on offense on the whole, it’s robust to image the Giants climbing out of an early-season gap.
Verdict: Embroil themselves in a pointless quarterback controversy; win six video games
Denver Broncos (2-5)
Given how disastrously Denver’s protection has carried out this season, it’s a minor miracle that they’ve been semi-competitive. Denver have misplaced twice by one-score and, one way or the other, held the Chiefs to 19 factors. However there’s little probability of the Broncos turning it round the remainder of the way in which. Their remaining schedule is daunting. Hiring Sean Payton was by no means going to be a cure-all, and the franchise is in the identical spot immediately because it was when it acquired the coach this offseason: staring down a rebuild in one of many league’s best divisions.
Verdict: Roll on draft season
