Houston Texans at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (Saturday 4.30pm EST/9.30pm GMT)
What the Texans have to do to win: CJ Stroud must proceed his upward trajectory. After turning what would have been an unpleasant fumble deep in his personal half into the start of a run of 23 unanswered factors towards the Los Angeles Chargers final week, Houston’s quarterback appeared to shake off his winter blues on the very second he discovered Xavier Hutchinson extensive open downfield. Stroud must belief his instincts with a view to compensate for a subpar offensive line, although extra importantly he has to place confidence in Nico Collins. The receiver will probably be underneath blanket protection from Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid, owing to an absence of some other important Texans risk downfield, however his exceptional knack of constructing catches in heavy visitors will probably be essential if his workforce are to maintain tempo with the Chiefs. Oh, and in video games that Collins has 150 or extra receiving yards the Texans are 4-0 so simply hold it flowing in his route. Straightforward.
What the Chiefs have to do to win: After coasting via the warmup for this recreation 27-19 in December it’s tough to see what the masters of staying one step and one rating forward want so as to add to their gameplan. Nonetheless they have to be ready for a battle with Houston’s protection. The move rush from Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter is immense whereas the cornerback pairing of Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter dominated the Chargers with a trio of interceptions between them final weekend. Patrick Mahomes wants to observe his again whereas being very cautious with ball placement in mild of Houston’s clear benefit over Kansas Metropolis within the backfield and trenches.
Key participant: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. It’s good that the good sandbagging season of 2024 has lastly drawn to an in depth and the true Kelce can come out to play. A 25-day layoff may have the 35-year-old match to step again into his position as goal chief and purple zone murderer.
Prediction: Chiefs over Texans.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Saturday 8pm EST/Sunday 1am GMT)
What the Commanders have to do to win: Head coach Dan Quinn has to remain aggressive to maintain Washington from being blown away. Their 87% fourth-down conversion fee leads the league and was an enormous think about edging out Tampa Bay within the wildcard spherical. The 5 makes an attempt that they had towards the Bucs made certain they saved up with a high-scoring offense, one thing they may encounter once more towards the Lions. The ultimate fourth-down conversion, which resulted in a five-yard landing to Terry McLaurin, is the right instance of how their aggression typically yields outcomes. The Commanders might have kicked a area objective, to chop a 17-13 deficit down to 1 level, and relied on their protection to get a cease. As an alternative Quinn gambled or, as he put it after the sport, was “daring, however not reckless”.
What the Lions have to do to win: Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn must take dangers together with his playcalling to deliver rookie sensation Jayden Daniels again all the way down to earth. The bye week may have helped the Lions recuperate from a protracted season however three cornerbacks stay on injured reserve so to guard his undermanned secondary Glenn has to attempt to stress Daniels into errors. Towards Minnesota within the ultimate recreation of the common season, Detroit pressured Sam Darnold on 28.9% of his dropbacks forcing a completion fee of solely 44% whereas within the earlier recreation towards the 49ers, Brock Purdy was pressured on 23.7% of dropbacks. He was sacked twice and threw two interceptions. As a rookie Daniels has confirmed himself higher than these gamers at dealing with stress however within the greatest recreation of his younger profession the danger of a handful of pricey performs is definitely worth the reward for Detroit.
Key gamers: Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, RBs, Lions. The bye week could have been most useful for Gibbs after shedding Montgomery for 3 video games to shut the season. Gibbs now has his working mate again for a change of tempo briefly yardage conditions. The elite pairing might simply expose a Washington protection outmatched by their tempo and energy.
Prediction: Lions over Commanders.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 3pm EST/8pm GMT)
What the Rams have to do to win: The Eagles boast one of many NFL’s most interesting cornerback pairings in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean so deep passes to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp must be restricted to maintain the Philly tandem guessing if a protracted bomb will come their means. In any other case alternatives beneath their protection must be preyed upon. Working again Kyren Williams and tight finish Tyler Higbee will almost definitely play essential roles within the passing recreation whereas Nacua and Kupp can each be efficient within the slot on quick catches.
What the Eagles have to do to win: Philadelphia have to seek out extra within the passing recreation after counting on a defensive masterclass to beat Inexperienced Bay. Jalen Hurts threw for less than 121 yards final weekend, with a run of seven incompletions from the top of the primary quarter till halfway via the third. A repeat of that chilly snap could possibly be Philadelphia’s undoing. LA are going to promote out to cease the run after Saquon Barkley ran over them for a ridiculous 255 yards and two touchdowns when these groups met in November, so Hurts will have to be extra concerned. He has to lift his recreation even with a slowed down Barkley greater than seemingly nonetheless capable of finding the majority of the offensive manufacturing.
Key participant: AJ Brown, WR, Eagles. After a quiet efficiency there all the time comes an overcorrection. Hurts could be clever to proceed the custom and goal his star receiver as a lot as attainable after Brown felt uninvolved sufficient to do some mild studying throughout the win over Inexperienced Bay. Brown has confirmed to be a troublesome cowl for the Rams of their previous two conferences. He caught six of his seven targets for 109 yards and one landing earlier this season and 6 of eight targets for 127 yards in 2023.
Prediction: Rams over Eagles.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Payments (Sunday 6pm EST/11pm GMT)
What the Ravens have to do to win: Baltimore have to hold driving Derrick Henry. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who’ve an amazing protection, knew precisely what was coming for them and have been nonetheless powerless to withstand within the wildcard spherical. The working again’s 186 yards towards Pittsburgh final weekend show that retaining Henry in verify is nigh on unattainable. Just like the Steelers, the Payments have a superb run protection and but Henry recorded a season-high 199 yards on the bottom in a straightforward 35-10 win over Buffalo in September. The working again’s dominance also needs to assist calm any jitters from Lamar Jackson.
What the Payments have to do to win: With a protection as strong as Baltimore’s it’s laborious to seek out any weaknesses. But when there’s a flaw Josh Allen can choose aside it’s the Ravens’ inside linebackers. Roquan Smith and Malik Harrison supply restricted move protection so the Payments can goal the center of the sphere as they did towards the equally underpowered linebackers of Detroit in December. The Payments working backs thrived within the passing recreation within the 48-42 shootout win over the Lions as James Cook dinner, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson mixed for 156 receiving yards and a rating. Johnson in the meantime confirmed once more that he’s a wonderful pass-catching again together with his miracle landing seize on fourth-and-one towards the Broncos final week. Brief, sharp throws to the working trio will harm Baltimore.
Key participant: Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens. Baltimore’s passing protection has been reworked because the workforce moved Hamilton to deep security however defensive coordinator Zach Orr could also be clever to place him nearer to the road of scrimmage to spy Allen. Hamilton’s dimension and pace make him effectively suited to limiting the swashbuckling quarterback on the bottom.
Prediction: Ravens over Payments.
