When Padres workforce chairman Peter Seidler just lately mentioned his imaginative and prescient for the membership forward of the approaching commerce deadline, he made clear he believed within the present iteration of the membership and appeared to don’t have any need to promote on the commerce deadline. That confidence comes regardless of an unsightly first half of the 2023 season. In 88 video games to date this season, the Padres have gone simply 41-47, leaving them ten video games again trying up at three groups within the NL West. The membership’s Wild Card outlook isn’t a lot better, as San Diego is 8.5 video games again with 5 groups standing between them and the ultimate Wild Card spot
After all, membership possession not often instantly makes baseball operations selections. Provided that, the choice on whether or not to purchase or promote on the commerce deadline in three weeks will seemingly be made by Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. A notoriously aggressive GM, Preller has constructed a star-studded roster with an enormous payroll lately. For the reason that finish of the 2020 marketing campaign, when San Diego first made the playoffs below Preller, the membership has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto in blockbuster trades whereas signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal and signing every of Darvish, Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to huge cash extensions.
To reverse course fully can be close to unimaginable. Musgrove and right-hander Robert Suarez are each signed via the 2027 marketing campaign, whereas Darvish is signed via 2028. Infielder Jake Cronenworth is signed via the 2030 season, Machado and Bogaerts are each signed via 2033, whereas Tatis is signed via the top of the 2034 marketing campaign. Between these seven gamers, the Padres are on the hook for roughly $107.5MM by way of precise {dollars} and simply over $137MM for luxurious tax functions, per RosterResource. With so many huge cash contracts on the books not only for subsequent season, however for the higher a part of the last decade or longer, buying and selling long-term belongings appears each unwise and tough.
Given the membership’s place, it’s doable that the entrance workplace will determine to double down and hope the workforce’s efficiency will enhance within the second half. Suarez has but to pitch this season and will assist stabilize the bullpen upon his return, whereas every of Darvish, Machado, and Bogaerts are multi-time All Stars with prolonged observe information of success; it’s certainly not exhausting for Preller’s entrance workplace to speak themselves into that group enhancing upon their present 2023 efficiency going ahead. With loads of expertise on the roster and evident holes behind the plate, at DH, and on the bench, San Diego may retain their key gamers and deal for average upgrades to the weakest areas on the roster in hopes of issues enhancing in the course of the season’s remaining two months.
Alternatively, the membership may look to retool for the longer term. Snell and Hader would instantly be among the many most coveted rental arms in the marketplace if the Padres listened on the pair, whereas Seth Lugo would certainly curiosity quite a lot of contenders given his capacity to swing out and in of the rotation. Evenly promoting would enable the Padres to recoup worth on their pending free brokers and bolster a farm system that’s been raided by years of aggressive buy-side offers. What’s extra, it will enable San Diego to benefit from a commerce market with few clearly established sellers.
After all, the membership may choose to take a center floor possibility as nicely, dealing a few of their pending free brokers whereas additionally including huge league items with a number of years of management in hopes of giving themselves an opportunity to bounce again in the course of the second half whereas making an attempt to maximise the membership’s odds of successful in 2024, Soto’s final yr of workforce management. Such an method comes with its personal distinctive dangers, nonetheless. Dealing away key gamers can have impacts within the clubhouse, because the Brewers noticed when dealing Hader to San Diego final yr and Seattle noticed after buying and selling nearer Kendall Graveman in 2021.
With simply three weeks left till the commerce deadline, the Padres will likely be compelled to decide within the close to future. How ought to San Diego method this commerce deadline? Do they should keep the course and provides themselves the very best probability to win whereas Soto is below workforce management? Ought to they attempt to rebuild their farm system and look towards 2024 and past? Or maybe they need to attempt to do a little bit of each?
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