The Mets and Pete Alonso have been in a staredown for some time but it surely appears the membership is blinking. Andy Martino of SNY studies that they now anticipate him to signal elsewhere, with Thursday’s settlement with Jesse Winker a part of a plan to unfold cash round to numerous options. Earlier at present, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Alonso’s market was heating up, with the Blue Jays and Mets concerned, in addition to a 3rd unidentified workforce.
Alonso and the Mets have clearly had mutual curiosity in reaching a brand new deal for a very long time, however with out the power to agree on a worth level. The membership reportedly supplied him a seven-year, $158M extension in the summertime of 2023, however a deal didn’t get achieved. Since then, there have been modifications on either side of the negotiations. The Mets employed David Stearns to switch Billy Eppler atop their baseball operations division in September 2023, with Alonso then hiring Scott Boras the next month.
Throughout the 2024 season, the perimeters typically expressed admiration for one another however by no means appeared to make a lot effort to get an extension achieved. Alonso turned down a qualifying supply and have become a free agent. Though he was related to numerous groups in current months, he by no means appeared to get a deal to his liking. Alonso’s camp reportedly pivoted to a short-term deal, pitching the Mets a three-year pact with opt-outs. The Mets gave the impression to be considerably amenable to this framework however a spot on the cash nonetheless prevented a deal from coming collectively.
In current weeks, the Mets have additionally been related to gamers like Winker, Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Scott, Luis Arráez and Tim Hill. Additionally they reportedly supplied Teoscar Hernández a two-year deal earlier than he returned to the Dodgers on a three-year pact.
Martino’s report compares the Mets’ present plans to these of the Yankees after lacking out on Juan Soto, spreading cash round to numerous gamers versus one large splash. After Soto went to the Mets, the Yankees gave out offers to Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt, in addition to buying and selling for Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. They might have achieved a few of these strikes together with Soto however maybe have been extra aggressive in these areas since they hadn’t tied up their sources with the one mega deal.
The Winker signing alone doesn’t cease the Mets from bringing again Alonso, as the 2 coexisted on the roster in 2024, with Alonso the common at first as Winker frolicked within the outfield corners and designated hitter slot. However there was some reporting that the membership needs to make use of some inner choices on the corners. Mark Vientos was the common third baseman final yr and had a breakout yr on the plate, however with subpar defensive metrics. He may maybe transfer over to first, whereas the Mets use Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuna to cowl third base.
Maybe issues will change within the coming days, but it surely now appears potential that the Mets are certainly ready to stroll away from Alonso. The sooner reporting from The Athletic indicated the Mets have been in talks with varied gamers and didn’t need the stalled Alonso negotiations to get of their means. Whereas Winker doesn’t strictly block the trail for Alonso to come back again to Queens, it does appear to sign that the Mets are ready to maneuver on.
If it does certainly come to move, it is going to be a surprisingly lackluster finish to the Mets-Alonso relationship. He was a homegrown star with some New York roots and are available up by way of the membership’s system after being chosen within the second spherical of the 2016 draft. He debuted with an enormous splash in 2019, hitting 53 dwelling runs and likewise profitable the house run derby. That marketing campaign is now extensively seen because the juiced ball season, however Alonso continued to be an enormous homer menace in subsequent years.
Alonso now has 226 dwelling runs over the previous six seasons, second solely to Aaron Choose in that point. He gained one other derby title in 2021 and was a staple of the membership over their current historical past, not having performed lower than 152 video games in any full season.
Throughout that point, the Mets went from a punchline to a powerhouse. Whereas they have been beforehand recognized for having middling budgets and outcomes, Steve Cohen bought the membership forward of the 2021 season and made them one of many high spenders within the league. They’ve made the playoffs in two of the previous three years, with Alonso taking part in the hero final yr. He hit 4 dwelling runs in 13 playoff video games only a few months in the past, together with the series-flipping homer off Williams to get the Mets previous the Brewers and out of the wild-card spherical.
However his star energy within the media and common public appeared to outpace his reputation in at present’s analytically inclined entrance places of work. Whereas the house run energy has been actual, Alonso’s different contributions have been muted. His stroll charges have been respectable however not excellent, he’s not a burner on the basepaths and his protection hasn’t been properly regarded. His total offense has additionally declined. Whereas he hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ by way of 2022, he slashed simply .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+. FanGraphs thought-about him to be value 2.1 wins above substitute final yr, a stable however not elite quantity. There have been 119 place gamers who have been at 2.2 fWAR or increased final yr.
It due to this fact appeared potential from the beginning of the offseason that Alonso would discover his affords missing in free company. As a part of MLBTR’s annual High 50 record, we thought-about predicting Alonso for a deal alongside the traces of the three years and $80M that Bellinger received from the Cubs final yr after he lingered in free company into February. We backed down from that prediction, placing 5/$125M on Alonso, but it surely now seems he could properly find yourself getting one thing like that deal. It simply is perhaps someplace apart from Queens.
It’s a little bit of a shocking pivot, because the Mets haven’t been shy about spending since Cohen purchased the workforce. Whereas Stearns was in Milwaukee, he by no means spent some huge cash on first basemen, however he by no means had the sources he now has. Regardless of the deeper checking account, it nonetheless appears as if Stearns would favor to put money into methods he considers smart. The membership additionally didn’t play on the high of the beginning pitching market, not signing guys like Fried or Corbin Burnes, as a substitute taking dangers on guys like Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. Montas is coming off a down yr whereas Holmes will probably be making an attempt to pivot from the bullpen to the rotation.
All this can seemingly go away Alonso trying elsewhere for his subsequent gig, with Toronto one chance. The Jays have already got a primary baseman in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but it surely doesn’t seem as if the plan could be to commerce him. Per the reporting from The Athletic, the plan could be for Guerrero and Alonso to share first base and DH, with Guerrero often crossing the diamond to play third base. Though the article from The Athletic says the Jays would “desire” to hold onto Guerrero, Rosenthal made an look on “Foul Territory” and extra emphatically shot down the opportunity of Guerrero being traded.
Although the match could be a bit awkward, the Jays may use the facility. Toronto’s offense was near league common final yr, however loads of that was due to having a stroll fee that was bested by solely six different groups. Within the dwelling run division, they have been really one the worst golf equipment, forward of simply the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.
They don’t actually have a strict designated hitter, which maybe supplies a path for Alonso and Guerrero to share a lineup. Justin Turner was their major DH for the primary half of final yr however he was traded to the Mariners on the deadline. It might make it a bit tougher for the membership to relaxation somebody like George Springer, but it surely appears the Jays have some openness to it regardless. Guerrero taking the recent nook may permit better flexibility, however he solely has 104 innings there over the previous 5 seasons. Most of that got here late final yr because the Jays have been taking part in out the string on a misplaced season. It’s unclear how a lot willingness they should put Guerrero there in significant video games.
Financially, it appears the membership nonetheless has powder dry. They reportedly had a powerful supply on the desk for Burnes as of some weeks in the past, earlier than he signed with the Diamondbacks. Since then, they signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33M deal, however that’s certainly properly shy of what they have been keen to pay Burnes.
It’s theoretically potential that signing Alonso may give the Jays some cowl for the occasion they’ll’t signal Guerrero, an impending free agent, to an extension. However it appears extremely seemingly that Alonso will probably be securing a cope with the power to choose out after 2025, which means he would solely stick round for 2026 if he has a down yr. They might seemingly desire to have Guerrero locked up long run, since he’s considerably youthful than Alonso, whereas seeing Pete stroll away earlier.
There are certainly different golf equipment within the combine as properly. Alonso has been related to the Giants, Crimson Sox and Angels in current weeks. Groups just like the Tigers, Athletics and Mariners make sense as speculative matches. Since Alonso rejected a QO, the Mets will obtain a draft decide after the fourth spherical if he indicators elsewhere. The penalty for the signing membership will depend upon their revenue-sharing standing and whether or not they paid the aggressive steadiness tax final yr. Maybe we may have readability quickly because the staring contest with the Mets seems to be ending.
