Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias Are Making Magic With the Mets

As I sit down to jot down at present, the Mets rank fourth within the majors with a 113 wRC+ and sixth with 19.7 place participant WAR. They’re outperforming their star-studded division rivals in Philadelphia and Atlanta in each metrics. In the event you had advised me on Opening Day that the Mets would have the next wRC+ than the Braves after the commerce deadline, I’d have scoffed at your ignorance. In the event you had advised me on the finish of Could that the Mets’ lineup would surpass that of the Phillies in WAR inside eight weeks, I’d have laughed in your face. In any case, the Mets ranked thirteenth in wRC+ (99) and sixteenth in place participant WAR (6.2) two months into the season. At the moment, that they had a 24-33 report to point out for his or her efforts, they usually have been trending towards a second straight midsummer sell-off.

But, for the reason that first of June, the Mets rank first within the majors with a 130 wRC+ and second with 13.6 place participant WAR. They’ve gone 33-18 in that span, one of the best report in baseball. Not solely did David Stearns maintain onto potential commerce chips Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Luis Severino on the deadline, however he made a number of additions, bringing Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Phil Maton, Huascar Brazoban, and Ryne Stanek into the fold. In line with ZiPS, the Mets elevated their playoff odds by 8.2% on the deadline. And in line with our Playoff Odds web page, the Mets elevated their postseason probabilities by 36.0% between Could 31 and at present. They’re certainly one of solely two groups whose odds have risen from beneath 10% to above 50% at any level this season. The opposite is the Royals, who have been at 9.9% for about 24 hours on the finish of March:

One might make a compelling argument that the Mets have had essentially the most spectacular turnaround of any crew in baseball this season. And whilst you might need seen loads of the credit score for this exceptional reversal of fortunes directed at a sure purple mascot, I’m right here to spotlight the true loveable monsters behind the Mets’ newfound successful methods: Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias.

First issues first, let me give credit score the place credit score is due. Nobody has been extra important to the Mets’ success than Francisco Lindor. His 3.4 WAR since June 1 leads all the Nationwide League. He’s quietly giving Shohei Ohtani a run for his cash within the NL MVP race. But, to take care of the quick meals mascot analogy, Lindor is the Ronald McDonald on this equation, and never simply due to his well-known smile. He’s the principle character and the face of the franchise. Nothing about his success needs to be new or stunning.

Vientos and Iglesias, however, have unexpectedly pushed their means into the highlight. The 2023 season was not notably variety to both of them. They every hit properly at Triple-A, however Vientos couldn’t replicate that success within the majors, and Iglesias couldn’t discover a crew to provide him an opportunity within the bigs. Neither made the Mets’ Opening Day roster this yr, dropping out to the likes of Brett Baty, Joey Wendle, and Zack Brief. But, as the remainder of New York’s choices at second and third base faltered, Vientos and Iglesias emerged as unlikely heroes. Very like Grimace, they’ve stolen the hearts of baseball followers all throughout Queens.

Since June 1, Vientos ranks second on the Mets with 10.0 wRAA and 1.7 WAR, trailing solely Lindor. His 148 wRC+ ranks third (min. 50 plate appearances). Iglesias hasn’t performed fairly as a lot, so his 1.3 WAR ranks fourth, however nonetheless, his 7.9 wRAA ranks third and his 160 wRC+ is the highest mark on the crew (once more, min. 50 PA). On the season, Vientos and Iglesias every rank among the many prime 10 NL batters (min. 100 PA) in wRC+. Certain, that’s a low plate look threshold at this level within the season, nevertheless it’s spectacular all the identical:

Vientos skilled his fair proportion of huge league rising pains in 2022 and ’23, however he hit the bottom operating in ’24. From his season debut on April 27 by the top of Could, he posted a 174 wRC+. He adopted that up with a 149 wRC+ in June and a 148 mark in July. In 12 video games for the reason that All-Star break, he’s slashing a wonderful .262/.319/.619 with three doubles and 4 dwelling runs. I’ve already postpone writing about him a number of instances with the presumption that he was sure to decelerate, however he refuses to take his foot off the fuel.

Uncooked energy has at all times been Vientos’s carrying software, and the large query was if he might make sufficient contact to capitalize on his energy in video games. To this point, that hasn’t been an issue. With 16 dwelling runs in 63 contests, he’s crushing bombs at a 41-homer full-season tempo. If he had sufficient plate appearances to qualify, his .277 remoted energy can be tied for second within the NL, behind solely Ohtani and Ozuna. His .357 xwOBA (eighty fifth percentile) isn’t fairly as spectacular as his .383 wOBA, however that’s largely as a result of he’s operating a .329 BABIP, and his .267 xBA is nineteen factors decrease than his .286 batting common. Energy numbers, however, are more durable to faux. Statcast thinks he’s gotten just a little fortunate on dwelling runs (solely 14.2 xHR), however nonetheless, Vientos ranks seventh within the NL (min. 200 PA) with a .242 xISO.

Contact stays a difficulty for Vientos; his 26.0% strikeout fee isn’t horrible for an influence hitter, however his 33.0% whiff fee and 16.0% swinging strike fee are ugly. Furthermore, his 90.4 mph common exit velocity (seventieth percentile) and 45.1% hard-hit fee (seventy fifth percentile) are surprisingly poor for a hitter with a lot uncooked energy. As his 17.3% barrel fee (97th percentile) suggests, Vientos can completely destroy the ball when he hits it the best way he desires to. Nevertheless, his 34.5% squared-up fee on contact (63rd percentile of batters, min. 200 swings) tells us he isn’t making optimum contact almost as typically as he might. And when Vientos doesn’t barrel the baseball, his common EV, hard-hit fee, xwOBA, and xISO are all marginally worse than the league common:

All issues thought-about, it’s laborious to name this an issue when Vientos is hitting so properly. Nevertheless, if the 24-year-old could make extra stable contact along with his barrels, he’ll be all of the extra harmful on the plate. This will likely be particularly necessary if opposing pitchers proceed to problem him by throwing him progressively extra breaking balls and fewer fastballs every month than the one earlier than. The very best hitters could make aggressive contact even once they aren’t making excellent contact in opposition to the proper hitter’s pitch.

Iglesias, greater than a decade faraway from his prime prospect standing, is way more of a identified amount than Vientos. In different phrases, it’s laborious to imagine his success is anyplace close to as sustainable. Now we have 1,138 video games and 4,167 plate appearances of information with which to guage Iglesias, to not point out hoards of proof that journeymen infielders not often flip into superstars of their mid-thirties. That stated, he actually does look higher this yr; his .337 xwOBA isn’t almost as spectacular as his .387 wOBA, nevertheless it’s nonetheless above league common and the second-best mark of his profession. Then once more, we’re solely speaking about 124 PA. What’s extra, we’ve got seen him do that earlier than, and he’s 4 years older this time round. Iglesias put up a 160 wRC+ with a 91st percentile xwOBA over 150 plate appearances within the 2020 season, solely to supply an 89 wRC+ and a seventeenth percentile xwOBA the next yr. There’s a cause we repeat the phrase “small pattern dimension” so typically on this web site.

Nonetheless, Iglesias has been an absolute delight to look at, and he deserves loads of credit score for his function within the Mets’ midseason turnaround. He is probably not a top-10 hitter within the NL for for much longer, however he has definitely confirmed that groups have been silly to not have taken an opportunity on him in a bench function final season. He produced between 1.0 and a pair of.0 WAR each season from 2015 to ’22, and he has already completed so once more in ’24. He stays a succesful defender at 34 years outdated, and his signature talent – placing the ball in play – is alive and properly. His whiff and strikeout charges are elite, whereas his walk-to-strikeout ratio is one of the best it’s been since 2016:

Final season, third base was a catastrophe zone for the Mets. Their third basemen hit a mixed .212/.266/.324 with a 64 wRC+ and -1.2 WAR; no crew acquired much less manufacturing from the recent nook. This yr, on account of a breakout season from Vientos and just a little assist from Iglesias, the Mets have improved extra at third base than anyplace else on the diamond. Getting into play at present, they rank first within the NL and second within the majors at third base with 3.5 WAR – and that’s with Baty (85 wRC+, 0.5 WAR in 47 video games) taking the vast majority of the reps on the place over the primary two months of the season. Vientos is answerable for 2.6 WAR at third, the place he has performed in 61 of his 63 video games. Iglesias has chipped in one other 0.6 WAR in simply 22 PA and 58 innings there due to a 213 wRC+ and a pair of OAA. If these two can present even half as a lot manufacturing over the following two months, the Mets will end with 5.1 WAR at third base. That might be greater than a six-win enchancment over final season’s mark. No place has performed an even bigger function on this crew’s comeback from disappointing sellers to respectable Wild Card contenders

What’s extra, the Mets will virtually certainly end the season among the many prime half of groups in third base WAR for the primary time for the reason that days of wholesome David Wright. Nobody is able to name Vientos the second coming of the best place participant in franchise historical past, nevertheless it should be good for Mets followers to see a brand new star shining on the scorching nook.

To not be forgotten, Iglesias has additionally helped elevate the bar for the Mets at second base amid disappointing seasons from Jeff McNeil and Wendle. McNeil has an 86 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR in 80 video games (305 PA) at second this yr, whereas Wendle contributed a 30 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR in seven video games (21 PA) earlier than he was DFA’d. Iglesias has boosted the crew’s general numbers with a 148 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 26 video games (96 PA) on the keystone. Because of this, the Mets rank seventeenth in baseball with 1.1 WAR and twelfth with a 97 wRC+ from their second basemen. It has helped that McNeil is lastly hitting once more (146 wRC+ in July), although with Iglesias enjoying so properly, McNeil has seen extra of his enjoying time within the outfield. It stays to be seen how supervisor Carlos Mendoza will cut up up the obtainable enjoying time now that Winker is within the outfield combine, to not point out what he’ll do as soon as Starling Marte returns from the injured record. In the end, nevertheless, that’s a superb downside for the Mets to have. They’re going to wish all of the offense they will get down the stretch.

The 2024 Mets rank twenty fifth in FIP (4.35) and twenty ninth in pitching WAR (5.2). The previous month was particularly brutal; Mets pitchers ranked final within the majors with a 5.22 FIP and -0.5 WAR. Their commerce deadline acquisitions ought to assist, however even the mixture of Blackburn, Brazoban, Stanek, and Maton in all probability received’t be as useful as a wholesome Kodai Senga would have been. The Mets’ ace appeared sharp in his season debut final week (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Okay) till a calf pressure pressured his early exit. After the sport, Mendoza advised reporters that “it’s truthful to say” Senga is out for the remainder of the common season. Thus, if the Mets are going to reclaim and maintain onto a Wild Card spot, their offense – together with Vientos and Iglesias – must hold making magic.