Baseball is a sport of uncertainty. Half an inch right here or there could be the distinction between a strikeout and a house run. Balls bounce surprisingly. Matchups don’t even out. The wind is blowing simply the unsuitable method sooner or later, or simply the precise method the subsequent. However two issues reoccur like Haley’s comet within the fashionable sport: the Brewers are a couple of hitters wanting a potent lineup and Mark Canha posts an above common however unexciting batting line. Right now, these two issues are teaming up – the Mets traded Canha to the Brewers in trade for prospect Justin Jarvis.
It’s not that the Brewers plan on a punchless lineup. They’ve drafted loads of hitters lately, and made trades to safe others in addition to. Previously few years, they’ve traded for Willy Adames, Jesse Winker, Rowdy Tellez, and William Contreras. They’ve promoted Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer. Carlos Santana joined the crew final week. Via all of it, although, they’ve at all times appeared a couple of bats quick. Somebody will get injured. Somebody regresses. The tip consequence? An offense scuffling round or under league common, with a couple of spots offering downright embarrassing manufacturing.
This yr, your complete infield has failed Milwaukee. Luis Urías hit his method again to the minors; Adames has a .202/.287/.388 line, good for an 82 wRC+. Turang is even worse, hitting .208/.278/.314 (61 wRC+). Brewers first basemen have a decidedly not good 69 wRC+ in mixture. Having an additional batter within the lineup hasn’t softened the blow, both: Brewers DHs have hit .205/.301/.308, the second-worst DH manufacturing throughout the majors. Regardless of a gaping gap on the high of the NL Central the place the Cardinals often function, the Brewers have fallen out of first place due to the upstart Reds. They want extra firepower, and the earlier, the higher.
Canha won’t be what you image once you hear “extra firepower.” His most exit velocity this yr ranks within the forty eighth percentile throughout baseball. That’s nothing new; he’s been bouncing round between the fortieth and sixtieth percentile for the previous 4 years. He’s solely eclipsed 20 homers as soon as, in dinger-mad 2019. He’s not even a Mookie Betts kind whose uncooked energy performs up; his barrel charge hasn’t overwhelmed the league common since that very same 2019 season.
That’s all true, however Canha nonetheless will get his as a result of he has an incredible sense of the strike zone. He not often chases unhealthy pitches. He makes a ton of contact when he does swing. A profession double-digit stroll charge is sensible given these abilities. He strikes out greater than you’d assume on condition that rosy description of his plate self-discipline, however that’s simply because he works loads of deep counts. The entire package deal is principally what you’d anticipate: strong on-base numbers, subpar slugging, and general manufacturing someplace between 10 and 20% higher than common.
Canha’s 2023 has been no exception. Whereas the Mets have fallen out of rivalry, he has authored a typically strong season. He’s putting out much less continuously than in any earlier season, which has buoyed his line regardless of simply six homers and a .279 BABIP. Solely two Brewers have out-hit Canha this yr over 150 plate appearances or extra, which is truthfully stunning. 5 completely different Mets have, and the Mets are terrible!
All of that to say, the Brewers have loads of holes to fill and Canha suits a lot of them simply advantageous. He can DH. He can spell each outfield corners (Frelick and Christian Yelich), or heart subject in a pinch. When Tellez returns, they’re a pure proper/left platoon. Maybe I’m not promoting this strongly sufficient, however that’s a very nice participant, the form of hitter the Brewers have been lacking for years. Canha’s not a celebrity, or perhaps a star, but it surely’s laborious to take a look at his outcomes and see something worse than a superb bat.
To sweeten the pot, the Mets stapled a bag of cash to Canha’s jersey. Extra particularly, they’re paying all of his wage besides the league minimal, as Mark Feinsand reported. The Brewers typically function with a decent finances and so they’ve already made some trades this yr. Subsequent yr’s crew choice – a $2 million buyout or one yr for $11.5 million – gives a attainable bonus and a particular small price, however almost certainly he’s only a rental.
So as to add Canha, the Brewers despatched the Mets an intriguing pitching prospect. Jarvis wasn’t actually on the radar earlier than this yr, and Eric Longenhagen defined to me why: He’s a kind of pitchers who seems to be fairly common when he’s sitting 90-92 and unhittable when he’s 92-94. (Guess how laborious he’s throwing now.) His finest pitch is a four-seamer with big vertical motion. He sports activities an virtually completely over-the-top supply; image a catapult laying siege to a medieval citadel, and also you’re a lot of the method there. Meaning a reasonably excessive launch level, and therefore a less-shallow vertical strategy angle than is right for four-seamers, however the motion and a little bit of deception make it a superb pitch nonetheless.
After that fastball, he throws a slider/splitter/curve combine, with the slider in all probability the most effective of the bunch. Honestly, the fastball is doing loads of the heavy lifting, and he throws his slider as a lot as his splitter and curve mixed. His command is inconsistent – he acquired his stroll charge underneath management for the primary time in his profession this yr in Double-A, however then walked 12 batters in three begins in Triple-A. In loads of methods, he’s a two-pitch reliever ready to occur.
I pointed this out to Eric, however in his thoughts, the Mets will doubtless proceed to make use of him as a starter whereas he has minor league choices remaining. There are extra probabilities to catch lightning in a bottle that method, extra probabilities that he’ll grasp his command. Within the meantime, he can pop down from Syracuse to Queens for a low-inning spot begin or some lengthy aid when the key league pitching workers is exhausted. There’s loads of worth in having swingmen with choices remaining. That feels prefer it could possibly be his function as quickly as subsequent yr; he’ll have to be on the 40-man roster this winter to keep away from the Rule 5 draft.
Jarvis didn’t make our preseason Brewers listing, however his efficiency this yr has put him again on the radar. He’s a 40 FV pitcher per Eric — proper on the starter/reliever borderline — on the again of that fastball and the hope that he can discover sufficient strikes and sufficient secondaries to enrich it.
Generally, a crew’s wants are simply boring. That’s the case right here. I don’t have a ton of earth-shattering new info to convey to you about Canha or how he’ll match on the Brewers. He’s offense in a can, and so they’re wildly quick on offense. He’s in all probability roughly a mean participant all-in at this level in his profession, his future contract isn’t compelling, and he’s pushing 35. Nobody’s going to jot down a tick-tock of how this commerce went down.
That’s true, however it is a nice instance of two groups getting what they want out of a small deal. The Brewers needs to offer fewer plate appearances to actually dreadful hitters, and so they don’t significantly care what place they’re changing: verify. The Mets are on a mission to spend Steve Cohen’s cash to purchase prospects, any prospects (although they’ve largely gotten good ones): verify.
Even when I can see why each groups are doing this, I believe I’d desire to be the Brewers. The Mets are simply getting what they’ll; they have been unlikely to train Canha’s choice and so they don’t have something left to play for this yr. That’s good enterprise, significantly given how keen Cohen is to pay down salaries to get extra prospects. However Milwaukee’s finish? Mark Canha is a reasonably good participant to get again for a Rule 5-eligible pitcher with command questions.
Let’s put it this fashion: It’s in all probability simpler for the Brewers to draft and develop a pile of Jarvises than it’s to search out constant, Canha-level offense. If leases like him – roughly common, low-cost (post-Cohen), dependable, versatile – are on provide at this charge, why on the earth would you go signal a Josh Bell or a Brandon Belt in free company? They acquired to check out inner choices – whoops, yeah, these didn’t work – and nonetheless ended up with a strong hitter at a cut price basement value. If pitchers maintain fetching big returns in commerce on the deadline, the optimum habits appears clear: concentrate on getting some pitching in free company, then purchase rental bats as applicable.
The ever-pragmatic Brewers have stumbled upon a reasonably good technique right here. The Mets are taking what the market will give them. Jarvis may find yourself nice (actually attainable) and Canha may disappoint (comparatively unlikely), however placing your crew able the place you get to make trades like Jarvis-for-Canha as an alternative of Quero-for-Giolito is one thing to aspire to. If and when David Stearns takes over in Queens in a couple of years, possibly he can replicate the technique there.
