Making Sense of the Braves’ Shortstop Situation

On Opening Day, when the Braves took the sphere after batting within the prime of the primary inning, everybody you’d anticipate ran out to their typical positions. Properly, virtually everybody. Taking his place because the beginning shortstop was Orlando Arcia, the recipient of a three-year contract extension introduced earlier that day. The deal is price $7.3 million with a membership possibility for a fourth yr that features a $1 million buyout and replaces the earlier two-year contract extension he had signed after the 2021 season.

In the event you hadn’t adopted the Braves’ shortstop saga over the offseason, seeing Arcia within the Opening Day lineup might need been a shock. So let’s recap: Dansby Swanson, the on a regular basis shortstop since his debut in August 2016, performed out his closing yr underneath group management final yr and entered free company. Atlanta didn’t present a lot curiosity in re-signing him as soon as he hit the open market, and he wound up inking an enormous seven-year take care of the Cubs.

The inheritor obvious to Swanson was Vaughn Grissom, who had been referred to as up midseason to fill in for an injured Ozzie Albies although he hadn’t performed above Double-A but. He impressed with a 165 wRC+ by means of his first 100 plate appearances within the large leagues, however that mark slid to simply 35 over his closing 50 journeys to the plate. His late swoon was so unhealthy that the Braves ended up benching him in three of their 4 postseason video games. Nonetheless, getting into spring coaching, the expectation was that Grissom would get each alternative to win the job for good.

For his half, Arcia had appeared in simply 104 video games for the Braves after they acquired him from the Brewers in April 2021. He performed 4 completely different positions within the infield and outfield, primarily appearing as a utility man for Atlanta — a fairly vital step backwards after starting his profession as Milwaukee’s beginning shortstop. Via his first 5 seasons, he put up a .244/.295/.366 slash line (a 71 wRC+) and accrued 1.9 WAR, and after becoming a member of the Braves, he spent lots of time driving the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors. Nonetheless, he did present some enchancment on the plate in Gwinnett, posting a 129 wRC+ in 322 PA along with his best-ever ISO at .233.

These enhancements on the plate carried over to the following yr, the place Arcia spent practically all of his time within the large leagues because the Braves’ utility man. In restricted motion, he posted a 104 wRC+, a career-high for him. The most important distinction for him was a bounce in batted ball high quality:

His hard-hit fee improved by greater than 4 factors, as much as 42.5%, and his barrel fee reached 7.5%, each profession highs. He additionally reduce his popup fee to five.6% and concurrently elevated his fly ball fee. By elevating his larger high quality contact however avoiding mis-hits, he was in a position to generate far more productive outcomes on his balls in play, with common exit velocities on his fly ball and line drive contact that have been significantly notable. As a substitute of a light-hitting, defense-first shortstop, Arcia’s batted ball contact began wanting much more harmful.

His plate self-discipline additionally took a giant step ahead. With the Brewers, Arcia had developed a really aggressive strategy on the plate which didn’t go properly along with his middling bat-to-ball abilities. Final yr, he decreased his swing fee to 44.7%, a drop of practically eight factors over the yr prior, and simply a profession low. His contact fee didn’t budge, however merely taking extra pitches allowed him to run a 9.0% stroll fee and keep his respectable strikeout fee.

Regardless of these enhancements on the plate, it nonetheless got here as a shock to see Arcia win the Opening Day gig. Grissom had a wonderful spring, and a shock contender emerged in Braden Shewmake.

There’s solely a lot inventory you’ll be able to put into spring numbers, although there may be some proof that exit velocity enhancements could be a little sticky into the common season. Sadly, primarily based on the restricted variety of Statcast tracked batted balls, Grissom struggled with the identical points that undercut his seemingly spectacular debut final yr. In 15 tracked batted balls, his common exit velocity was simply 86.5 mph — barely higher than the 84.6 mph he put up within the large leagues final yr, however nonetheless properly under league common. (Arcia solely had eight tracked batted balls this spring, however their common exit velocity was 94.2 mph.) The dearth of top of the range exhausting contact final yr was a significant purple flag for Grissom, who solely managed a 34.3% hard-hit fee and put practically half of his batted balls on the bottom. Lots of his success was BABIP-driven, which is why he crashed so exhausting in September when balls stopped discovering gaps within the protection.

Then there’s the issue of Grissom’s protection. He wasn’t nice at second base whereas filling in for Arcia, costing the Braves 5 outs and three runs per OAA and RAA. On the tougher defensive place, it’s probably these numbers would solely worsen. Grissom labored out with Ron Washingon, who helped flip Marcus Semien’s protection right into a energy, for 3 separate weeks through the offseason. However whereas there was some enchancment, it wasn’t sufficient to warrant handing him the job out of the gate.

Shewmake’s emergence could have sophisticated the image somewhat, however he wound up getting despatched again to Triple-A for extra growth time. A good defender already, the factor holding him again has been his lack of manufacturing on the plate. He has an excellent really feel for placing the bat on the ball however no energy in any way and restricted on-base abilities. His enhancements this spring had coaches buzzing, however in the end, he must show it within the minors earlier than getting a shot within the large leagues, and his ceiling could also be that of a utility infielder anyway. After each Grissom and Shewmake have been despatched right down to the minors, it’s telling that the previous lined up at shortstop for Gwinnett, with the latter shifting over to second base.

Regardless of all this drama surrounding the place this offseason, Grissom may find yourself being the Braves’ shortstop of the long run anyway. The extension Arcia signed doesn’t preclude the Braves from calling up him or Shewmake in the event that they escape within the minors this yr. However Arcia is barely 28 years previous, and it’s potential he’s in the course of a mid-career breakout after his change of surroundings. The enhancements he’s made on the plate are a transfer in the fitting course, and his protection is one other optimistic at a premium place. If Grissom does get referred to as up sooner or later to take the beginning function, having Arcia as a utility man isn’t the worst end result for the Braves.