Right now two years in the past, Tyler O’Neill was seen as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield. O’Neill had proven flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, however it seemingly all got here collectively for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning protection in left discipline. This all-around efficiency translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by solely 13 gamers within the sport, and O’Neill completed eighth in NL MVP voting.
Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks a couple of multi-year contract extension throughout the 2021-22 offseason, although it wasn’t recognized if the 2 sides floated a deal to cowl simply O’Neill’s arbitration years or past. (The Playing cards subsequently received an arb listening to towards O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM wage for the outfielder in 2022, somewhat than his desired $4.15MM determine.) Given how the subsequent two seasons performed out for O’Neill, St. Louis might need caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, although it’s secure to say that neither aspect was significantly glad with the outfielder’s outcomes throughout the 2022-23 seasons.
O’Neill has hit solely .229/.310/.397 with 23 residence runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a barely below-average 98 wRC+. The important thing statistic there could be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill performed in simply 168 of a doable 324 video games as a consequence of a number of accidents. A hip impingement and a hamstring pressure restricted him to 96 video games in 2022, after which a decrease again sprain and a foot sprain led to extra injured record time in 2023 and solely 72 appearances.
Accidents additionally hampered O’Neill previous to 2021, thus making him a difficult participant to correctly consider. Does that profession 12 months serve for example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever keep wholesome, or was even that enormous 2021 marketing campaign maybe one thing of an outlier even past O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL? A hefty .366 BABIP places one thing of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even permitting for the truth that his velocity and baserunning means helped him naturally flip just a few further grounders into base hits. His stroll charge was additionally nicely under the league common in 2021, although curiously, O’Neill posted rather more strong stroll numbers in 2022-23, in addition to the 2020 season.
The quantity that has stayed constant, sadly for O’Neill, is his strikeout charge. Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout charge ranks seventh amongst all batters with no less than 1600 PA. Whereas his Okay% has gotten higher in every of the final two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s method has curbed his effectiveness on the plate and made him one thing of a one-dimensional hitter.
It most likely additionally hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent a lot of the 2023 season listening to his identify in commerce rumors. Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down 12 months in 2022, O’Neill all of the sudden appeared to change into expendable, even when St. Louis was naturally nonetheless placing a big asking worth on his companies. It isn’t recognized what provides the Playing cards would possibly’ve obtained for O’Neill on the time or what trades might need been floated or critically mentioned, but in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis would possibly’ve been higher served in transferring O’Neill whereas his commerce worth was a little bit increased.
The outfielder’s tough 2023 season solely diminished that worth, and the 12 months acquired off to an instantaneous awkward begin when O’Neill was benched for a recreation for what supervisor Oliver Marmol felt was a scarcity of baserunning effort the earlier evening. That state of affairs appeared like a harbinger for the tip of O’Neill’s time with the group, but he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill on the commerce deadline even by way of the struggling membership made another sell-off strikes.
A commerce didn’t materialize till December, when the Purple Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Baseball America ranks Robertson because the Twenty fifth-best prospect within the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, but the commerce return must be thought of a little bit of a disappointment for the Playing cards contemplating what the return might need been for O’Neill even final offseason. From Boston’s perspective, after all, the deal could possibly be seen as an intriguing buy-low state of affairs. The Royals and (O’Neill’s former crew) Mariners have been two of the opposite groups publicly linked to O’Neill’s commerce market, and it’s secure to imagine that a number of different groups checked in with the St. Louis entrance workplace.
Well being is clearly the largest x-factor for O’Neill going ahead, but Fenway Park is a fairly good touchdown spot for a participant seeking to regain his hitting stroke. It’s simple to think about O’Neill all of the sudden launching just a few homers over the Inexperienced Monster, although that very same wall may also present an attention-grabbing problem to O’Neill in his common position as the brand new Sox left fielder. After profitable Gold Gloves in each 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers have been a lot nearer to common over the past two seasons, so he’ll even be on the lookout for a rebound within the discipline in addition to on the plate.
O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season. He’ll have all the chance on the earth with a Purple Sox crew that appears to be one thing in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and making an attempt to legitimately contend, and it may be argued that purchasing low on a latest MVP candidate could be slotted into both route. One other 12 months of struggles may restrict O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year offers going ahead, but if he can keep away from the IL and present something near his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a pleasant multi-year contract could possibly be in offing subsequent winter.
