Proper-hander Luis Severino is “doubtless” to say no the qualifying provide prolonged to him by the Mets earlier this month, in keeping with a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon provides that Severino “loves” taking part in in New York however is now anticipated to aim to land a multi-year deal in free company this winter.
Severino, 30, is getting into free company for the second time this yr. The correct-hander entered the open market final winter coming off a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees the place he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of labor and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13M deal. That deal went fairly nicely, as he pitched to a league common 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of labor. He struck out 21.2% of opponents whereas strolling batters at only a 7.9% clip. These are all stable however unspectacular numbers, however that mid-to-back of the rotation manufacturing can nonetheless earn a robust assure in free company, because the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have lately (albeit with out the QO connected).
Provided that, it’s maybe not a lot of a shock that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05M qualifying provide. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51M contract for Severino earlier this winter after the Mets connected a QO to him. That assure is in step with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha acquired from the Royals simply earlier than free company opened, and Wacha was considered as a equally borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. After all, Severino wouldn’t essentially have to succeed in that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile resolution for him. Proper-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34M assure with the Rangers final winter that afforded him the chance to opt-out following the 2024 season, and even the same deal would web Severino a bigger general assure than the QO whereas nonetheless affording him the flexibleness to return to free company subsequent winter.
With Severino poised to say no the QO, the Mets will now have to both re-sign him in free company or exchange him of their rotation. The membership’s rotation additionally stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who acquired a QO as nicely however has lengthy been anticipated to say no it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with solely Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It’s actually potential that the membership might look to reunite with both Severino or one of many different exiting free-agent starters, though the Mets have loads of monetary flexibility and are coming off a shock journey to the NLCS. That might make them intention increased in free company this winter, with high free-agent starters akin to Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all anticipated to be accessible. It’s even potential that they flip to the commerce market of their seek for rotation upgrades, as they’ve been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.
Ought to Severino finally land elsewhere in free company, him declining the QO signifies that the Mets would obtain a compensatory draft decide after the fourth spherical of the 2025 draft as a membership that paid the posh tax in 2024. In the meantime, groups must give up a mixture of draft picks and worldwide bonus pool {dollars} commensurate with their standing relative to the posh tax and income sharing as laid out by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk final month. Groups that acquired income sharing in 2024 would give up simply their third-round decide within the 2025 draft to signal Severino, whereas groups that paid the Aggressive Steadiness Tax this yr would give up their second- and fifth-round picks along with $1M in worldwide bonus pool house.
