Travis Ice and I’ve begun early work on the Los Angeles Angels and Sacramento Athletics prospect lists, and since each franchises’ prospects are on the Mesa Photo voltaic Sox roster, I spent most of final week seeing no matter recreation they had been enjoying.
At this level within the Fall League, the leaders in video games performed have laced up their spikes solely eight or 9 instances. Something you’ve examine this 12 months’s AFL to date has encompassed simply two weeks of part-time play for any given participant. Keep in mind it is a hitter-friendly league for quite a few each developmental and environmental causes, and that triple slash traces on this league will not be a dependable proxy for expertise.
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Offensive requirements at first base are fairly excessive, and regardless that the collective efficiency of this 12 months’s group was down relative to current norms (by sort of quite a bit), it’s nonetheless a place from which we anticipate good gamers and prospects to supply affect energy. Morgan has been a related prospect since highschool, however a relative lack of energy has tended to cap his projection into extra of a part-time first base/outfield function.
Throughout the 2024 common season it appeared like Morgan was extra typically taking max-effort swings and promoting out for energy. He reached Double-A and slugged .483 throughout three ranges, however his middling uncooked energy and opposite-field tendency as a hitter (plus elevated chase charges relative to his profession norms) prompt this was perhaps not the most effective method for him. Within the Fall League, Morgan has been extra balanced, actually taking monumental hacks solely in favorable counts. He’s nonetheless stinging the ball in a approach that signifies he’ll be a doubles machine, and he appears much less weak to fastballs up and away than he did in the course of the summer time. We don’t have a approach of really understanding how Morgan will deal with elevated huge league fastballs till he faces them, however a extra balanced, contact-oriented type of hitting goes to present him a a lot better probability of masking the highest of the zone and being a extra full hitter. (An apart: Watch A’s prospect Denzel Clarke go first-to-third on the video’s 1:55 mark.)
I believe absolutely the ceiling for his manufacturing appears to be like one thing like Brandon Belt’s or Daniel Murphy’s pre-Juiced Ball period statline. Extra seemingly Morgan’s output will look one thing like Ji Man Choi’s or LaMonte Wade Jr.’s. Morgan is just not a man who’s going to hit 20 homers per 12 months, however a heady, well-rounded offensive skillset coupled together with his glorious, profile-seasoning first base protection make him higher than the 40 FV grade participant I evaluated him as in the course of the 12 months. He’s making a case to be elevated into the again of this offseason’s Prime 100 checklist.
Caleb Durbin, UTIL, New York Yankees
I gave Durbin quick shrift final 12 months even after his .353/.456/.588 line within the 2023 Fall League. He had a very good 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, together with a powerful second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is brief — actually quick, he’s 5-foot-6 — however he’s not small; he’s constructed like a bit tank. His compact, stocky construct helps maintain his swing quick and constantly on time to tug the baseball. His high quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a man who slugs beneath .400 on the huge league degree, however he was coping with an harm that usually impacts contact high quality for some time after restoration.
Maybe most significantly, Durbin appears to be like high quality at each second and third base and has additionally been enjoying everywhere in the outfield. Defensive versatility is perhaps his key to being rostered constantly. Durbin ran a jailbreak 4.10 for me final week, however his home-to-first instances have been near 4.4 seconds on regular swings. That’s not blazing and slower than what’s typical of an honest middle fielder, however any sort of outfield viability would assist the previous Division-III standout grow to be an unbelievable huge leaguer. Durbin has performed sparingly in middle discipline throughout his profession, and it’s going to be very troublesome to guage him there this Fall League except he begins getting reps there each day, which I believe is unlikely. It’s extra of a factor to observe become subsequent spring.
Kemp Alderman, OF, Miami Marlins
Alderman, a 2023 second spherical pick of Ole Miss who had a number of the greatest exit velocities in that draft class, is presently main the AFL with six house runs. He hit one on Friday at a whopping 119.5 mph. It went out on a line, ricocheting off the aspect of the batter’s eye, which you’ll see on this body:
Friday, Marlins outfielder Kemp Alderman hit a homer that left Salt River Fields in an actual hurry, at 119.5 mph. pic.twitter.com/HBvj2F0oud
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 22, 2024
Like Durbin, Alderman missed time in 2024 with a damaged hand. It’s good to see Alderman hitting with elite peak energy coming off of this specific harm, however I’d advise everybody to pump the breaks on his general prospectdom at the moment. He masses his arms so deep, excessive, and late that I fear he’ll wrestle in opposition to higher velocity as he climbs the minors. Although Alderman’s regular-season strikeout charges don’t elevate alarm, I don’t suppose 30-ish video games at every A-ball degree is a significant pattern, particularly for a draft pick of an SEC college. It’s high quality to be hopeful that I’m improper or that Alderman will make mandatory changes as soon as higher stuff begins beating him, and he clearly has the facility to clear the offensive bar at a nook outfield spot. However regardless that he’s raking out right here, he doesn’t have an opinion-altering look. I do know Marlins followers have gone by way of this quite a bit these days, the place they’ve a minor leaguer with elite energy however an inadequate hit software to profile (Peyton Burdick, Griffin Conine, Jerar Encarnacion), and I fear Alderman is one other of this ilk.
Devin Kirby, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Alert Ben Lindbergh, we have now a knuckler. The 25-year-old Kirby was an undrafted free agent out of UConn in 2023 and spent most of 2024 in Fort Myers both on the Complicated or FSL roster. His knuckleball must be extra constant for him to be thought of a prospect in any respect, however for now it’s a variety of enjoyable to observe a man whose main pitch is his knuckler.
The Arizona Fall League has a knuckleballer this 12 months, Twins righty Devin Kirby. pic.twitter.com/Z6c7ik6vH4
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 18, 2024
Board Additions
Ryan Birchard, RHP, Milwaukee BrewersHenry Bolte, OF, Oakland Athletics
These gamers have had their scouting stories added to the Fall League tab on The Board. Head over there to take a look at their software grades and scouting stories.
