Lions Loom, But Are the Buccaneers Just as Dangerous?

The San Francisco 49ers held off the Inexperienced Bay Packers on Saturday night time and at the moment are getting ready for his or her third consecutive NFC Championship Sport look. However Kyle Shanahan’s squad received’t know the identification of its title-tilt opponent till the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions sq. off at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Who ought to the 49ers need to face in subsequent weekend’s recreation with a Tremendous Bowl journey on the road?

Ought to the 49ers Root for the Lions or the Buccaneers on Sunday?

The Lions had been a greater workforce than the Buccaneers, however Detroit’s three-win benefit within the NFC standings overstates the diploma to which it outperformed Tampa Bay in 2023.

Dan Campbell’s workforce posted a +63 level differential, suggesting the Lions ought to have received someplace round 10 video games in the course of the common season. As a substitute, they received 12.

The Buccaneers’ anticipated file was extra in step with their precise mark (9-8) and level differential (+23). However the hole between these two golf equipment will not be as giant as it could seem.

The Lions and Bucs posted related defensive outcomes by most 2023 metrics. Whereas Detroit allowed 60 extra factors than Tampa Bay, the 2 golf equipment gave up almost an identical yards per play (5.5 vs. 5.4). The Buccaneers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play (-0.018); the Lions had been twenty first (-0.008).

The distinction is on the offensive aspect of the ball. Detroit, led by OC/No. 1 head teaching candidate Ben Johnson, ranks within the high 5 in factors, yards per play, and first downs. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers exceeded expectations however had been within the backside 12 in those self same metrics.

Might Tampa Bay Beat San Francisco?

Betting markets have the Buccaneers as a ten.5-point street underdog in a possible NFC Championship Sport in opposition to the 49ers. What would it not take for Tampa Bay to tug off the upset?

The Bucs first must give attention to stopping Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco’s speeding assault, which is simpler mentioned than performed. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in defensive effectivity in opposition to the run however is seventeenth in success fee, suggesting it prevents explosive speeding performs however will be crushed down-by-down.

Todd Bowles might have to regulate his recreation plan in opposition to Brock Purdy and get further our bodies into protection to protect in opposition to the 49ers’ overflowing assortment of weapons, even when Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can’t play or is restricted.

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Bowles and the Bucs blitzed on the NFL’s third-highest fee (40.1%) in the course of the common season, however bringing further go rushers is harmful in opposition to Purdy. He averaged a league-leading 10.2 yards per try when blitzed in 2023, throwing 15 touchdowns in opposition to solely three interceptions.

When Tampa Bay has the ball, it could need to assault a San Francisco protection that’s struggled to cease the run this season. However Bucs RB Rachaad White has performed most of his injury as a receiver, and TB’s speeding recreation stays among the many least productive within the NFL.

As a substitute, Mayfield could attempt to get after a 49ers cornerback and security that unit that may blow coverages. Ambry Thomas has struggled as a starter on the surface, whereas veteran security Logan Ryan has solely began three video games in 2023. If the Buccaneers can maintain up in go safety, can Mayfield discover Mike Evans for a number of downfield pictures?

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