Layoffs Haven’t Hindered Playoff Teams Historically

On Saturday, three of the 4 dwelling playoff groups misplaced the opener of their respective Division Collection. The losses ranged from 3-2 dramas to 11-2 laughers. Sunday, the American League groups performed their second video games, and the house groups went 0-2. Now that we’ve seen six video games and the house groups are 1-5, it’s time to ask the plain query: Is that this format irrevocably damaged?

Okay, effective, that’s probably not a good query. However there’s been numerous hue and cry in regards to the playoff system just lately, headlined by an article by the estimable Ken Rosenthal that got here out this morning in The Athletic, and because the resident “I don’t see what all of the fuss is about” man at FanGraphs, I don’t see what all of the fuss is about. What higher time to dive into the numbers and see if we will discover some fascinating details on both facet of this debate.

The most important gripe, so far as I can inform, is that the layoff between the top of the common season and the beginning of the Division Collection unfairly disadvantages groups that secured a bye. Their opponents get to play baseball, whereas they’re pressured to take a seat on their butts. It’s a each day sport, goes the argument; disrupting that rhythm results in an obstacle even when additional relaxation seems like a carrot relatively than a stick.

The present postseason hasn’t been in use lengthy sufficient to say a lot of something about it – a 1-5 stretch for groups with a small edge within the playoffs is hardly noteworthy, and we will’t precisely lean on 100 years of postseason historical past to assist eradicate the noise. The present playoff format, with 12 groups and two first-round byes in every league, is barely two years previous. We’re essentially going to be coping with small samples right here. However let’s begin by folding these along with this 12 months’s information, as a result of it is going to bulk up our pattern dimension significantly.

Final 12 months’s conflict of bye groups towards Wild Card-round winners was a lifeless warmth. The video games had been cut up 8-8; the sequence had been cut up 2-2. For those who zoom in on the primary two video games of every sequence, the groups with the bye went 5-3. Zoom in even additional, to the primary recreation solely, they usually went 3-1.

You’ll be able to go deeper than that. Dan Szymborski culled the historic database for each matchup in playoff historical past the place one workforce had a layoff of 4 or extra days whereas their opponent had a layoff of two or fewer days. That counts the final two years of the playoffs, but in addition video games from the two-Wild-Card period, the place the highest general seed confronted the winner of a winner-take-all recreation after a short layoff, in addition to the occasional playoff recreation from earlier eras.

There have been 35 of those video games in baseball historical past. The workforce with extra relaxation has gone 24-11 in them. Dan additionally predicted the winner of every of those video games primarily based on the workforce’s seasonal document. From every workforce’s document, you’d count on the rested groups to go 19-16; they’ve been barely higher in mixture, which is smart given the pool we’re drawing from. Right here’s an inventory of all of these video games:

A few of that may come down to higher pitching matchups; the workforce with extra relaxation ought to be capable to set their rotation favorably. However that’s sort of the purpose of the additional time without work; positive, in previous years it might need been an accident of scheduling, however the league is now utilizing it to present groups a bonus. Attending to deploy your greatest beginning pitcher whereas your opponent makes use of a mid-rotation arm is one manifestation of that.

There’s simply not a lot proof, whether or not short-term or long-term, {that a} layoff results in an obstacle. Even prior to now two years, dwelling groups have gone 4-4 within the first recreation of the Division Collection. That’s the interval that everybody is most apprehensive about, and it’s nonetheless been a lifeless warmth. It’s additionally merely not sufficient information to say a lot of something; eight video games isn’t a lot of a pattern, notably when all of the groups concerned are playoff caliber.

Although I don’t see a lot proof {that a} layoff is hurting the perfect groups, I do sympathize with the impulse to present increased seeds extra of a bonus. The expanded playoff discipline has given extra fanbases a style of the postseason, however there’s additionally an implicit hazard: the extra groups you enable into the playoffs, the much less sense it makes to expend sources attempting to qualify. If every of the 12 playoff groups had the identical possibilities of successful the World Collection, the sport would undergo. Nobody would strive for 100 wins if successful 88 gave you a similar odds, and even roughly equal odds, of successful the large prize on the finish of the 12 months.

Byes are an essential manner to offer differentiation between the perfect groups in baseball and the subsequent tier down. Profitable 90 video games is much less interesting than it as soon as was. Within the final two years, six seeds have received 84, 86, 87, and 89 video games respectively; two groups made the NL playoffs after successful 84 video games this 12 months, in actual fact. I believe it’s essential to counter that pull in the direction of the center by giving the perfect groups a bonus.

Historic information counsel that the additional layoff is a significant benefit, however there are all the time extra choices to incentivize groups to win. John Smoltz advised one thing I’m fairly keen on: eliminating relaxation and journey days to compress the time between the Wild Card sequence and the subsequent spherical. That will pressure non-bye groups to both use pitchers on quick relaxation or broaden their rotation to incorporate lower-tier starters. It could notably blunt the benefit that groups just like the Phillies, Twins, and Diamondbacks, who’ve two elite starters, at present maintain.

The playoffs have all the time tilted the equation in the direction of extra begins out of your greatest arms and fewer from the again of the rotation, however the padding has gotten larger within the new playoff format. Wild Card groups are purported to be deprived by having to play extra video games in much less time, however after tonight’s video games, the Phillies and Diamondbacks can have every performed 4 video games within the final seven days. I don’t assume there’s any proof that the additional layoff is hurting the groups that obtain byes, however the decrease seeds are hardly dealing with an unattainable burden from enjoying additional video games. They, too, have much more relaxation than they’re used to within the common season, and this impact is much more pronounced this 12 months, due to all 4 Wild Card sequence winners sweeping. If we’re attempting to create an obstacle for decrease seeds, this technique isn’t doing that.

Fixing this is perhaps untenable for the league, as a result of it’s arrange the way in which it’s largely for TV causes. As Rosenthal identified, chopping out a journey day between the final Wild Card recreation and the primary recreation of the subsequent spherical would imply enjoying afternoon video games, one thing the league’s broadcast companions wouldn’t like. The NLDS additionally has a non-travel off day this 12 months, similar to the ALDS did final 12 months. That stands proud like a sore thumb – but it surely’s there in order that the league can begin all 4 Division Collection on the identical day and nonetheless broadcast a number of video games on TV each day. In the present day could be a journey day for all 4 sequence in any other case, and MLB appears to choose blanket protection to an equal enjoying discipline between the 2 leagues.

Rosenthal advised reseeding the playoffs after the primary spherical, and I believe that’s a no brainer. It wouldn’t have an effect on very a lot in any respect, in my view, but it surely’s higher than the choice of not reseeding. Granting the highest seed in every league an extra marginal benefit for free of charge to the printed schedule, which appears to be the explanation the league has resisted different makes an attempt to present that prime seed an edge, is a superb concept.

Whereas I don’t consider that the present playoff system is giving prime seeds an obstacle, I do assume it’s essential to be vigilant about defending the sides that higher groups obtain. Aggressive steadiness isn’t assured in a sport with income sharing and no wage ground, and notably one the place the end result of quick playoff sequence is all the time closely random. The higher workforce advances in 80% of seven-game NBA sequence; Michael Lopez, Greg Matthews, and Ben Baumer discovered that MLB would wish a best-of-75 sequence to match that charge. If you would like the perfect groups to play within the World Collection yearly, baseball’s inherent randomness is a big headwind.

So good on everybody for obsessively looking for another roadblocks and making an attempt to take away them. I believe the impulse to guarantee that the present playoff format treats good groups pretty is commendable. I would like the design to present prime groups an edge, by no means thoughts parity. A system that damage them could be unthinkable. I simply don’t assume that layoffs and relaxation days are serving to blunt that edge.