Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a helpful participant in his profession, regardless of his offense.
Coming into 2023, he had hit simply 18 dwelling runs in 256 video games. His 8.4% stroll fee was near common, however he wasn’t producing sufficient energy to actually be beneficial on the plate. His .261/.326/.386 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 95, indicating he was 5% under league common offensively total. Subtract his blazing sizzling 2020 debut and also you’re left with a line of .249/.315/.356 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of simply 86. However he stole 30 bases within the 2020-2022 stretch and obtained wonderful defensive grades throughout the board. Regardless of the marginally subpar offense, he was value 6.6 wins above alternative in that point.
Though he was nonetheless a strong contributor previous to this yr, there have been causes to imagine he was able to extra. Final yr, his common exit velocity was within the eighty fifth percentile amongst certified hitters, per Statcast, together with his laborious hit fee 84th. The rationale his uncooked abilities weren’t translating into outcomes was largely attributable to pounding the ball into the bottom. Hayes had a 52% floor ball fee over 2020-2022, effectively past league common, which has normally been round 42 or 43% in current seasons.
The Pirates clearly had religion that he may faucet into one thing extra, as they signed him to an eight-year, $70M extension going into the 2022 marketing campaign, the biggest contract in franchise historical past at the moment.
Right here in 2023, Hayes has seemingly taken some steps ahead with the bottom ball challenge. His grounder fee is all the way down to 42.3%, which is simply barely higher than the 42.5% league common this yr however virtually a 10-point enchancment over his earlier work. Getting beneath the ball extra has naturally led to improved energy output. He already has 13 homers this yr in 111 video games, a much better tempo than the 18 he hit in 256 video games previous to 2023.
The outcomes are even higher if we focus simply on the second half. Hayes went on the injured listing twice this summer time attributable to again points. Since being activated on August 1, he’s taken 159 journeys to the plate and is hitting .297/.342/.552 for a wRC+ of 133. He has a 40.2% floor ball fee in that point and eight of his 13 homers have been hit in that stretch as effectively.
That could be a very small pattern of lower than two months, nevertheless it needs to be extremely encouraging for Hayes and the Pirates. They don’t spend some huge cash, which signifies that it’s vital for them to get worth out of the cash that they do spend. Hayes has a strong flooring together with his pace and protection, however turning into an above-average hitter may make him right into a celebrity. His offense on the season as an entire continues to be simply shy of league common, wRC+ of 98, however he’s been value 2.7 fWAR because of the pace and protection. If he can preserve even a small quantity of his current offensive surge, he would push that even farther subsequent yr. He’s nonetheless simply 26 years previous and will nonetheless be tapping into his potential, with six extra assured years remaining on his deal, together with a membership choice for 2030.
The Pirates nonetheless have a tall hill to climb so as to return to competition. The Brewers are perennial contenders. The Reds are loaded with younger expertise. The Cubs are in sturdy place. The Cardinals are positive to be aggressive in transferring previous this down yr. The Bucs nonetheless have loads of questions on their center infield and pitching workers, however they need to be capable of rely on strong manufacturing from the new nook for the remainder of the last decade, and possibly much more.
