Josh Smith Is Cutting Through the Heart and Breaking Out

A buddy of mine is a large Cleveland Guardians fan, and the opposite night time we have been discussing the awards probabilities for a few of their prime gamers. He pitched Emmanuel Clase as a Cy Younger candidate — which, facet be aware: Have you ever seen his ERA and Cleveland’s document when main after eight innings this yr? — however I used to be extra occupied with the place José Ramírez and Steven Kwan would possibly end within the MVP race. I pulled up our leaderboards to see the place they stood and was greeted with a shock that had nothing to do with the Guards:

Huh? Josh Smith? The identical Josh Smith who batted beneath the Mendoza Line in every of his first two main league seasons? The one who didn’t get a single postseason plate look final yr? The one who barely made the Opening Day roster this season? In some way, sure.

By means of the primary half of the 2024 marketing campaign, that Josh Smith has been the best hitter in a loaded Texas Rangers lineup. In fact, that doesn’t fairly seize how nice the 26-year-old has been this season — in any case, that loaded lineup is harm and underperforming — however you would shave 25 factors off his wRC+ and he’d nonetheless be their finest hitter. Thankfully, the Yankees included Smith of their 2021 commerce for Joey Gallo, so no shaving is required.

Extra to the purpose, Smith isn’t simply glorious relative to the Rangers’ band of bangless bangers. Reasonably, his standing as a terrific hitter this season is indeniable. Right here’s the place Smith ranks amongst certified American League batters:

So what’s behind Smith’s surge? The obvious factor to level to is his stance. In response to Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning Information, Smith modified his setup and cargo over the offseason whereas figuring out at Texas’ Globe Life Subject with Seth Conner, the workforce’s assistant hitting coach. Smith stands extra slim now than he did final yr, and he has gone to a “stacked” load — that means he retains his head stacked over the middle of his physique by way of his swing to the purpose of contact. The aim of those changes was to chop down on strikeouts and fly balls, hit extra line drives, and get again to the contact-oriented strategy that made him a High 100 prospect a number of years in the past.

“I made a decision to vary it as a result of I used to be hitting like a buck fifty,” Smith instructed McFarland in April. “That was form of annoying, so I made a decision to make some adjustments.”

His precise batting common final yr (.185) wasn’t fairly that dangerous, however regardless, if you wish to hike up your common, placing out much less and hitting extra line drives is an efficient place to begin.

Halfway by way of this season, Smith’s adjustments have labored as supposed. His strikeout price has dropped from 23.7% final yr to 19.2% this yr, and his 34.9% fly ball price is down from final yr’s 40.4%. In the meantime, he’s elevated his line drive price by 10.4 share factors (25.3%, up from 14.9%). That’s the largest bounce among the many 188 gamers who recorded at the least 200 plate appearances in each 2023 and ’24:

Smith has stated that in his first two seasons, he received caught up within the push for energy. He was chasing fly balls as a result of he thought that was the best way to stay within the huge leagues. In some methods, he achieved what he was going for final yr: He dramatically elevated his barrel price (10.5%, up from 2.4% in 2022) and his common exit velocity (88.5 mph, up from 87.0). And final yr was an enchancment on the plate from his woeful rookie marketing campaign, however that’s like saying the 1963 Mets have been higher than the ’62 Mets — they have been higher, however solely as a result of they couldn’t get any worse:

Through the offseason, within the afterglow of profitable the World Collection, Smith concluded that he wasn’t going to chop it as a slugger. At 5-foot-10 and 172 kilos, he couldn’t generate sufficient energy to make his 2023 strategy worthwhile. So he began figuring out with Conner and the early returns have been promising, as Smith had a superb spring coaching (154 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances). He made the Opening Day roster primarily due to his positional versatility, however he was a backup and enjoying time wasn’t assured.

That’s, till third baseman Josh Jung broke his wrist within the fourth recreation of the season, requiring surgical procedure. Smith changed him because the robust facet of a platoon however shortly hit his approach into the on a regular basis lineup. Starting along with his first begin on April 2 by way of the tip of that month, Smith hit .321/.415/.506 throughout 94 plate appearances, good for a 163 wRC+. He hasn’t appeared again since, climbing up the batting order and settling into the no. 3 gap. Even with Jung nearing his return to the lineup, supervisor Bruce Bochy has stated Smith has earned a beginning position, although the place he performs within the subject will rely on the day.

Narrowing his stance and stacking his load have helped Smith get into a greater place to hit, however being in a superb place to hit and truly doing it are two various things. That brings us to the driving drive behind Smith’s success: He’s making significantly better swing selections.

Impressed by teammate Corey Seager, Smith has began looking pitches over the center of the plate. Sounds apparent, proper? Swing on the most hittable pitches. Duh! However that’s simpler stated than executed if you’re within the field and attempting to gear up for 100-mph heaters whereas additionally worrying about nasty breaking pitches. In Seager, Smith noticed the advantages of a selectively aggressive strategy and realized he’d been overthinking issues within the field.

Now he’s stripped hitting all the way down to its most elementary components to such a level that I’m cringing whereas typing this as a result of it feels like I went to the Crash Davis College of Baseball Clichés: Swing at good pitches, don’t attempt to do an excessive amount of, hit line drives. However this actually is what Smith is doing. Test this out:

Smith has been particularly nice at looking first pitches within the Coronary heart Zone:

This season, nestled within the lineup between Seager and Adolis García most video games, Smith is seeing first pitches within the Coronary heart Zone at a a lot increased price, and when he does, he’s hacking at and ripping them.

There are some questions in regards to the sustainability of Smith’s breakout. He’s significantly outperforming his anticipated stats (.244 xBA, .350 xSLG, .314 xwOBA), and it appears unlikely that pitchers will preserve grooving him this many pitches. However, even when a regression is coming, it’s exhausting to picture that Smith can be as dangerous as he was in his first two seasons. Along with his new setup and strategy, his basis as a line drive hitter ought to assist him restrict his slumps and produce as a strong lineup contributor, if not the shocking offensive drive he’s been this season.