Jeremy Peña Is Starting Out Strong but Coming up Short

Jeremy Peña is off to a wonderful begin. He’s additionally been one of many least productive hitters in baseball. How’s that for a lede?

If I advised you that with none further context, maybe you’d suppose Peña was struggling on the plate however making up for it within the discipline. But, the previous Gold Glove winner presently has -2 OAA and -5 DRS on the season. A lot for that concept. A lot on the contrary, Peña is on hearth on the plate. Over the primary six weeks of the 2024 marketing campaign, he’s batting .313 with a 129 wRC+. And whereas his .351 BABIP is probably going unsustainable, his .327 xBA ranks second amongst certified American League batters. His .363 xwOBA ranks within the eightieth percentile, an enormous step up from his .305 xwOBA (twenty second percentile) in 2023. Most spectacular, he has lower his strikeout fee down to simply 14.0%, ninth lowest within the AL. His strikeout fee has improved from the thirtieth percentile in his 2022 rookie marketing campaign to the 61st percentile final season, and now it sits within the 92nd percentile in yr three.

Nonetheless, if you happen to look up from these percentiles on Peña’s Baseball Savant web page, you is likely to be stunned by a very powerful quantity of all of them: His batting run worth is zero. The road on the worth spectrum is the faintest shade of blue, sitting a couple of quarter of an inch nearer to “poor” than “nice.” That doesn’t appear proper. Certainly, out of 485 batters to see a pitch this yr, Peña is the one one with a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 and a damaging batting run worth, in keeping with Savant. It’s not arduous to grasp why he’s an outlier. Sometimes, when a participant is hitting wherever near in addition to Peña, he offers at the least some optimistic worth to his membership.

Metrics like wOBA and xwOBA are context impartial, whereas Baseball Savant calculates run worth by contemplating the runners on base, the variety of outs, and the ball and strike rely for every discrete occasion. For those who take that normal methodology a step additional and likewise think about the inning and the rating, you get a statistic like Win Chance Added (WPA) – though Peña would possibly ask that we please, please cease taking the methodology a step additional. In keeping with WPA, Peña has price the Astros excess of he has given again in 2024. Houston ranks second to final within the AL with -3.82 offensive WPA this season. Peña (-1.03) is accountable for greater than 1 / 4 of that damaging WPA. Solely two gamers have contributed to the workforce’s misfortunes greater than Peña: the now-optioned José Abreu and a deeply slumping Alex Bregman.

Don’t let the truth that Peña has solely the third-worst WPA on his personal workforce overshadow simply how a lot damaging worth he has contributed this yr. His -1.03 WPA is the eleventh lowest within the majors and sixth lowest within the AL. In different phrases, his actions on the plate have decreased his workforce’s probabilities of successful by greater than all however 10 different gamers within the recreation. But, if you happen to take a more in-depth take a look at the underside of the WPA leaderboard, you’ll rapidly see that one factor is nothing just like the others:

Sure, Peña is the one participant on that checklist with a wRC+ that’s higher than league common. You’d need to broaden the desk to 53 gamers earlier than anybody else would seem with a wRC+ above 100. (For what it’s value, that participant is Colton Cowser.) It’s not that good hitters can’t have a low WPA – proper now, 30 certified batters with a wRC+ over 100 have a damaging WPA – however it’s uncommon to see a participant hitting this effectively with a WPA this poor. When a participant is getting as many hits as Peña, you’d suppose a few of them must are available in higher-leverage spots. Equally, Peña is making outs at a low fee this yr (his OBP is 15% higher than league common). In concept, that ought to restrict the variety of instances he can come up quick with the sport on the road.

From 1974 (way back to our WPA leaderboards go) to 2024, there have been 42,194 particular person batter seasons (min. 1 plate look). In solely 2,667 of these (6.3%) has a batter had a wRC+ above 100 and a WPA under zero. Solely 204 instances (0.48%) has a batter posted a wRC+ above 100 and a WPA under -1.00. And solely as soon as (0.002%) has a batter recorded a wRC+ above 128 and a WPA under -1.00 — Jeremy Peña in 2024.

I don’t count on Peña to take care of this distinction all yr. He has virtually 80% of the season left to play, and I’d count on each his wRC+ and WPA to regress towards the imply. Nonetheless, what he has already completed is surprisingly historic. By means of the top of April, Peña was sporting a 138 wRC+ and a -1.27 WPA. Relationship again to 1974, there have been almost 300 calendar months of Main League Baseball (i.e. April 1974, Could 1974, June 1974… April 2024). In that point, there have been tens (if not lots of) of hundreds of particular person participant months. But, by no means has a participant had the next wRC+ and a decrease WPA in a single calendar month than Peña in April 2024. Few have even come shut. It could sound arduous to imagine, however having clicked via each month of every of the previous 50 years on a customized leaderboard, I can guarantee you it’s true.

The final hitter to even put up a wRC+ above 100 and a WPA under -1.00 in a month was… Peña in April 2023. Huh! In the meantime, the final hitter with a wRC+ above 130 to rank among the many backside 10 in WPA was Daniel Vogelbach, who had a 132 wRC+ and a -0.89 WPA in August 2022. The final participant with a wRC+ above 120 and a WPA under -1.00 was Kevin Pillar in April 2017, who had a had a 124 wRC+ and -1.1 WPA over 110 plate appearances. Going additional again, different gamers this century who got here near Peña’s numbers embody Dustin Pedroia in August 2009 (136 wRC+, -1.02 WPA) and Javy Lopez in June 2004 (132 wRC+, -1.16 WPA).

So, how did Jeremy Peña accomplish such a singular feat? Though he didn’t floor right into a triple play with the bases loaded and the Astros down by one within the backside of the ninth, he’s accountable for the worst offensive recreation by WPA thus far this season. (Word: For the subsequent few paragraphs, I’m going to be utilizing Baseball Reference WPA. It’s not precisely the identical as ours, however it’s fairly comparable and permits me to make use of the Stathead instrument to check particular person participant video games over a number of seasons.)

On April 17, Peña went 0-for-5. In 4 of his 5 at-bats, he got here up with runners on base and made the ultimate out of the inning. To cap it off, he grounded right into a double play to finish the ballgame within the backside of the tenth, stranding the tying run on third. That’s one heck of a nasty recreation. In keeping with Baseball Reference, no different batter has had -0.6 WPA in a single recreation this season, and solely two extra have even gotten to -0.5 WPA. Listed here are all 12 gamers who’ve had a recreation with -0.4 WPA or worse in 2024:

Groups begin each recreation with a 50% win expectancy. By the top of the day, the winners could have elevated their win expectancy from 0.5 to 1.0, whereas the losers have decreased theirs from 0.5 to 0.0. Due to this fact, if a person batter finishes a recreation with a WPA under -0.5, meaning the remainder of his teammates within the lineup mixed for a optimistic WPA. That’s greater than a bit of embarrassing; maybe we’d like one other golden sombrero-type time period to explain such a efficiency.

If -0.5 WPA is dangerous, -0.6 WPA is way worse. It’s not simple to compile a lot damaging worth in a single recreation. Solely 5 different energetic gamers have ever had a WPA worse than -0.6 in a single contest:

As a substitute of getting sidetracked by the truth that Sean Murphy owns the highest two spots on that checklist, we have to hold speaking about Peña. As a result of, whereas his efficiency on April 17 goes a good distance towards explaining his low WPA, it doesn’t inform the total story. For those who take away that one recreation from the info set, his wRC+ would solely get larger. But, his -0.66 WPA in April nonetheless would have ranked under another AL batter with a wRC+ above 100.

In keeping with his recreation logs, Peña has solely had a optimistic WPA in 11 of 35 video games this season. What’s extra, he hasn’t had many large moments to counteract his worst showings. Though he has been a top-25 hitter within the AL by wRC+, he doesn’t even have one of many high 200 video games within the AL by WPA (utilizing Baseball Reference WPA once more). His two most efficient video games presently rank 225th and 233rd, and each of these outings got here in Could. His most efficient outing in April ranked 443rd that month. He could also be racking up hits, however his timing couldn’t be worse.

Peña rapidly developed a fame as a clutch performer throughout his rookie season. He hit .364 with a 198 wRC+ in high-leverage spots, and his 1.20 clutch rating ranked ninth amongst certified AL hitters. He was Houston’s finest hitter within the playoffs, posting a 187 wRC+ en path to incomes ALCS and World Collection MVP honors. That mentioned, his efficiency ever since is an effective reminder that clutch (or un-clutch) hitting isn’t a sustainable talent. That was dangerous information for the Astros final yr within the ALCS, when their 2022 postseason hero went ice chilly, hitting .160/.192/.160 with the bottom WPA within the lineup. Nonetheless, it would simply be excellent news this time round. The Astros aren’t going to show issues round except their bats cease arising quick in large moments, and Peña has nowhere to go however up.