Jeff McNeil Hit His Way to a Four-Year Extension

The trendy sport of baseball is outlined by energy and energy. You may activate any sport at any time and watch a man swing his behind off as he launches a 100 mph fastball 450 ft. In fact, that wasn’t all the time so frequent — a number of gamers used to swing for contact as an alternative of the fences. In the present day, that ability set is extra of a rarity, although there are nonetheless a couple of hitters who choke up on the deal with and spray the ball from line to line. Jeff McNeil is maybe among the best on this class. Recent off a batting tile, McNeil was due for a increase in arbitration. As an alternative, he and the Mets agreed to a four-year, $50 million extension.

The deal buys out McNeil’s two remaining arbitration years and two potential free agent years, taking him by way of his age-34 season. There’s additionally a $12.5 million membership possibility for the 2027 season, giving the extension an opportunity to max out at 5 years and $62.5 million. On the floor, that looks like a cut price for a participant coming off a 5.9 WAR, 143 wRC+ season that additionally noticed him play the most effective protection of his profession in response to OAA. Nonetheless, the free agent market doesn’t are usually notably beneficiant to gamers who’re over 30 or depend on contact as a lot as McNeil does. I requested Dan Szymborski if he may prepare dinner up a ZiPS estimate for a McNeil extension and because it seems, the contract he signed isn’t as a lot of a cut price as I initially suspected. Together with the reductions for the 2 cost-controlled arbitration years, ZiPS would have supplied McNeil a five-year, $69 million extension. That’s solely $6.5 million greater than the utmost the Mets supplied whenever you embrace the membership possibility. Dan additionally offered me with McNeil’s projected efficiency for the lifetime of the contract:

If McNeil performs like that, the Mets might be more than happy! Having a sure-thing above-average hitter in your roster is nice, and at solely $12.5 million per yr, it’s a no brainer. And as we noticed in 2022, he has the potential to be even higher than that if he can maintain a BABIP between .330 and .350. That’s robust to do yr in and yr out, but when he does, the Mets could have themselves a possible five-win participant. From McNeil’s standpoint, the deal offers him safety into his mid-30s. That isn’t a straightforward feat for non-superstar gamers these days, not to mention those that are as reliant on contact as he’s.

Thus far, this all appears mutually useful, however there’s a further motive the Mets can be motivated to finalize a deal like this: payroll certainty. Figuring out what you have got on the books is essential whenever you’re doubtlessly making an attempt to retain stars equivalent to Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, or Pete Alonso, or pursuing future celebrity free brokers equivalent to Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. For a membership just like the Mets that may play in deeper payroll waters, the extra certainty, the higher.

Now, we should take into account the query that comes up with each extension: how will the participant’s expertise age? That query is especially pertinent with a participant like McNeil, who has much less room for error since he isn’t a lot of a masher. If McNeil’s hit device falters, his ground is what we noticed in 2021. How do we all know that gained’t occur once more? Will McNeil’s present ability set and mechanics age nicely as he strikes into his mid-30s?

There is no such thing as a denying that McNeil can flat out hit. There might have been issues after the aforementioned 2021 season, when he dropped to a 92 wRC+ following three nice seasons to start out his profession, however he calmed these nerves fairly shortly in 2022. He hit the bottom operating, posting a 153 wRC+ within the first month of the season. From there, he simply stored hitting regardless of which spot he occupied within the lineup. In a yr the place the league batting common was at a historic low for the trendy period, McNeil nonetheless hit .326 in 589 plate appearances, main the majors; he ended the season with a .326/.382/.454 slash line. Earlier this winter, I wrote about Michael Brantley’s return to Houston, and the methods he makes use of his physique and bat to be correct together with his barrel at totally different heights of the strike zone. McNeil has the very same ability. Let me present you what that appears like:

April 25

Could 28

August 9

August 23

Away and off the plate, low and in, up and away, and below the zone. 4 totally different areas and heights, all leading to additional base hits. That’s spectacular barrel adjustability. He might not be drilling the baseball or lighting up the exit velocity leaderboards, however McNeil is giving himself an opportunity to get his barrel on the ball regardless of the place the pitch is thrown. Within the first swing, he delays his rotation so long as doable, makes deep contact, and elevates the ball down the road. He stood tall realizing he couldn’t get his barrel on this location with out an upright posture. The following swing is the precise reverse. He begins his rotation as quickly as he acknowledges the pitch inside. He then will get his barrel far out in entrance of the plate by tipping it nearly perpendicular to the bottom and manages to yank a laser down the road whereas retaining the ball honest. That isn’t one thing many hitters can do.

The following two swings each entered the strike zone on the outer third, however at totally different heights. Let’s take the swing from August 23 first. Since McNeil can spray the oppo hole nicely, and that’s the largest a part of Yankee Stadium, Harrison Bader was shaded that method. That left a number of house for McNeil to play with within the pull-side hole. In opposition to a pitcher like Frankie Montas with a diving sinker, McNeil was in a position to promote out on being early as a result of he knew it meant he may match the airplane of the ball and elevate it. He didn’t crush this one both, but it surely was nonetheless a straightforward double due to the unoccupied house on the market. Equally in opposition to Mike Minor, McNeil took an early hack on a fastball transferring throughout the highest of the zone into the meaty a part of his bat. What differed between this and the swing in opposition to Montas was that he held his posture up good and tall.

These 4 swings are all completely consultant of how McNeil makes use of his 80-grade contact potential to take care of a excessive stage of efficiency regardless of not having a lot energy. If he continues to do that, he’ll age high-quality. This can be a distinctive ability that can present worth even when his uncooked skills drop off as he ages. And I haven’t even touched on his bettering plate self-discipline across the edges of the strike zone, or as Statcast calls it, the shadow zone. After constantly grading negatively by way of run worth within the shadow zone throughout his profession, McNeil lastly turned it round final season by taking greater than he ever has across the edges.

Bettering plate self-discipline and an unimaginable hit device are the right pair of expertise for McNeil to age nicely as he enters his mid-30s. The Mets confirmed they’re keen to wager on that ability set, and now McNeil will stay in New York for the subsequent 4 seasons whereas hoping to be a key contributor to a World Collection profitable workforce.