Jay Jaffe’s 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing take a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the sequence, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS could be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule, and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing challenge, see right here. All WAR figures seek advice from the Baseball Reference model until in any other case indicated.

“What do I do about Félix Hernández?” Even earlier than my 2025 Corridor of Fame poll arrived within the mail in late November, that query loomed over my plans to fill it out. Anticipating a crunch for area however realizing that the previous Cy Younger winner — who’s on the poll for the primary time this yr — is considerably in need of the S-JAWS commonplace, the simple reply of leaving him off was at all times proper there. But given years of dialogue relating to the altering panorama for beginning pitchers (and by extension, beginning pitcher candidates), I made a decision to take a seat with the potential of voting for him proper as much as the purpose the place I reached for my pen.

I’ll take you thru my course of relating to the Félix query quickly sufficient. That is my fifth yr with an precise poll, however filling one out and having it rely nonetheless appears like a novelty within the context of 24 years of analyzing Corridor of Fame elections, and 22 of doing so whereas armed with the system that grew to become JAWS (the official twentieth anniversary of the metric’s introduction was in January). With so many mentors, friends, and colleagues having come and gone on this racket, I’m grateful to have caught round lengthy sufficient to have earned the proper to vote, and it’s a privilege I sit up for, even with the accompanying scrutiny and criticism.

Within the weeks for the reason that Corridor unveiled this yr’s 28-candidate slate, I’ve analyzed the highest 21 candidates at size in my sequence. I’ve nonetheless obtained seven one-and-done stragglers to cowl in early January, none of whom I critically thought-about for my poll; certainly, none of these seven has secured a single vote from among the many 64 ballots printed within the Poll Tracker as of 12:01 AM ET Monday, however their careers deserve a correct valedictory. Whereas I’ve largely identified whom I deliberate to incorporate, as at all times, I’ve gone by my full course of earlier than finalizing my poll, simply as I did with my digital ones. Significantly given my current makes an attempt to replace the pitching facet of JAWS, it by no means hurts to take one other look.

After electing simply 4 candidates from 2020–23, final yr the writers elected three, serving to to clear among the backlog amongst these inside vary of election. This yr’s crop of newcomers compelled me to replicate upon my very own course of, significantly close to starters and catchers, whose pitch framing information paints them in a brand new gentle.

The poll isn’t practically as crowded because it was earlier than. Circa 2014, 14 candidates met or exceeded the JAWS requirements at their respective positions, and 17 had a JAWS of at the very least 50.0 (or 40.0 for catchers), thus requiring all however probably the most small-Corridor-minded voters to carry out triage to winnow the sector right down to 10 candidates who might match on their ballots. This time round, solely two candidates meet or exceed the JAWS requirements at their place, although two are inside two factors, eight are at 50.0, and the 2 catchers are at 40.0 utilizing my experimental, framing-inclusive model of JAWS.

Even with these numbers decreased relative to their current peak, there’s nonetheless no such factor as an ideal poll. With my annual train has at all times come an acknowledgement of the quite a few subjective selections that go into choosing even probably the most objective-minded slate. How a lot leeway to grant if one is utilizing WAR and JAWS? How a lot emphasis to placed on postseason efficiency, awards, and fewer quantifiable issues? The place to attract the road in relation to performance-enhancing medicine or off-field points, topics that will or could not fall beneath the umbrella of the character clause? What to do concerning the declining workloads of beginning pitchers, or the wealth of knowledge we have now for current catchers that we didn’t have for these of yesteryear? Perfection could also be unattainable, but it surely’s nonetheless value pursuing. If we don’t get there… nicely, we do one of the best we are able to.

With that ample preamble out of the best way, right here’s how the subset of 21 candidates stacks up by way of JAWS:

As famous, I’ve used my workload-adjusted S-JAWS for beginning pitchers (detailed right here), which brings the above starters nearer to the usual however nonetheless leaves even the highest-ranked ones, Buehrle and Pettitte, greater than 9 factors off the tempo. Likewise, I’ve used my leverage-adjusted R-JAWS for aid pitchers (defined right here), and whereas that doesn’t push Wagner previous the usual, it makes him the highest reliever outdoors the Corridor.

The yellow cells present the place candidates meet or exceed the profession, peak, or JAWS requirements at their positions, and as you possibly can see, the desk is fairly gentle relative to years previous. Final yr, Adrian Beltré and Joe Mauer each exceeded all three, however each have been elected; additionally elected was Todd Helton, who exceeded two of three (peak and JAWS). However whereas we’re left a scant crop that clears the requirements strictly talking, we’ve obtained a number of spots the place a participant is inside one level, which is shut sufficient for my tastes, and in constructing my poll I’ve taken a considerably looser method, as I’ll element beneath.

Let’s begin with the “integrity, sportsmanship, [and] character” part of the voting guidelines. Till Mark McGwire landed on the 2007 poll, that clause was by no means actually used to exclude anybody; in the meantime, the varied electoral our bodies have admitted a parade of spitballers, sign-stealers, racists, cheaters, and abusers. The clause was the brainchild of Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who brimmed with such integrity that he spent his whole 24-year time period as commissioner upholding the sport’s shameful colour line. The historical past of that hypocrisy and so many others — witness the election of Bud Selig, himself steeped within the collusion of the Nineteen Eighties in addition to the overseeing of the so-called Steroid Period — leads me to keep away from placing any inventory within the clause, however I do have my very own methods of coping with the darker elements of gamers’ candidacies.

As I’ve stated for over a decade relating to candidates linked to PEDs, I draw a line between these whose allegations date to the time when the sport had no testing routine or technique of punishment (i.e., previous to 2004) and people who got here afterwards. With no technique of implementing a paper ban, and with gamers flouting such a ban being rewarded left and proper amid what was really a whole institutional failure that implicated group homeowners, the commissioner, and the gamers union in addition to the gamers, I merely don’t assume voters can apply a retroactive morality to that interval.

That distinction was why I voted for the likes of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Gary Sheffield, however with Shef’s BBWAA candidacy expired, this poll’s solely PED-connected gamers have been ones who drew suspensions, specifically A-Rod and Manny. On a performance-only foundation, each would get my vote, and likewise if their failing the supposedly nameless 2003 survey check have been their solely PED-related transgression, however each determined to press their luck and are paying the worth. A-Rod is one in all seven gamers with at the very least 3,000 hits and 500 homers, and he ranks twelfth in WAR amongst all place gamers, however his full-season suspension for utilizing PEDs purchased from the Biogenesis clinic from 2010–12 is a black mark I can’t overlook. Likewise close to Manny, one of many best hitters of all time; his 154 OPS+ ranks twentieth amongst gamers with at the very least 7,000 PA, however I nonetheless can’t get previous the 2 failed exams, not when higher gamers who by no means examined optimistic are being saved out. Yearly, I contemplate whether or not it’s time to take a brand new method with such candidates, however I’m not altering my thoughts this yr.

Word that I’ve not used allegations of home violence to disqualify candidates from consideration, although such issues are much more critical than PEDs. I can definitely perceive voters selecting to rule such candidates out.

As for who’s on my poll, the navigation widget above hyperlinks to their profiles, the place I am going into a lot better element than I can right here. For the gamers who’ve gone unmentioned, likewise you possibly can examine my reservations inside their profiles linked within the widget above. To start, the 2 high-profile newcomers get my nod:

Ichiro Suzuki (seventeenth amongst proper fielders in JAWS)

Suzuki clears solely the height commonplace, however that’s primarily as a result of he didn’t make his stateside debut till after his twenty seventh birthday, having gained three Pacific League MVP awards in Japan. His 10 All-Star appearances, 10 Gold Gloves, 3,089 hits, and two batting titles are greater than sufficient to justify voting for him, and up to now all people who’s printed their poll has. He was a pleasure to look at and to cowl, a fantastic international ambassador for the game.

CC Sabathia (fifty fifth amongst beginning pitchers in JAWS)

A six-time All-Star, Cy Younger winner, and simply the third left-hander to succeed in 3,000 strikeouts, Sabathia was a workhorse the likes of which we in all probability gained’t see once more. No one born after 1966 has topped his 3,577 1/3 innings, and Sabathia was born 14 years later. Whereas he’s a bit in need of the S-JAWS commonplace, he stands out relative to his contemporaries given his full résumé, which features a stellar efficiency through the Yankees’ 2009 championship run and a larger-than-life efficiency in carrying the Brewers to their first playoff look in 26 years the season earlier than. Mix his numbers and accomplishments with a really human and really public story of dependancy and restoration, to not point out a highlight as one of the crucial outstanding Black voices within the recreation, and this one is a straightforward name.

From there it’s on to 3 candidates who clear at the very least one commonplace, all holdovers from my earlier ballots:

Chase Utley (twelfth amongst second basemen in JAWS, 28.8% in 2024)

Regardless of not drawing greater than 300 plate appearances in a season till age 26, Utley is simply 0.1 factors shy of the JAWS commonplace on the keystone, and ninth in peak as nicely because of the large affect of his fielding and baserunning, which mirrored his excessive baseball IQ. His late arrival contributed to his ending with simply 1,885 hits; even with the Period Committee election of Tony Oliva, the writers have but to elect anyone from the post-1960 growth period who completed with fewer than 2,000. Between that scarcity and voters’ failure to acknowledge him on MVP ballots and within the Gold Glove awards — he was bypassed for the previous in favor of teammates Rollins and Ryan Howard, and someway by no means gained the latter — he’s been left with an uphill battle for election. Nonetheless, his first-year share was larger than these of current honorees Helton, Tim Raines, Scott Rolen, and Larry Walker, and per the Tracker, it appears like he’s gaining some floor.

Carlos Beltrán (ninth amongst middle fielders in JAWS, 57.1% in 2023)

The quintessential five-tool participant, Beltrán is one in all eight with at the very least 300 homers and 300 steals, and owns the very best stolen base success price (86.4%) of any participant with at the very least 200 makes an attempt. He’s a bit beneath all three requirements at a really top-heavy place, however he’s one of the best eligible middle fielder outdoors the Corridor and one of many high 10 all time.

Beltrán would possibly already be enshrined if he hadn’t been on the middle of the Astros’ unlawful sign-stealing scandal, which nipped his managerial profession within the bud. Whereas his personal efficiency didn’t profit, he did one thing in opposition to the foundations, and it continued by a postseason wherein his group gained a championship. Not each participant was snug with it (McCann, for one, requested him to cease), but when we’re to consider the varied stories, no person stood as much as him firmly sufficient to derail the scheme. On condition that supervisor A.J. Hinch reportedly destroyed two displays in response to the scheme, it’s value questioning each his management functionality and the handy scapegoating of Beltrán as a lone actor; the asymmetry of Hinch and bench coach-turned-Crimson Sox supervisor Alex Cora returning to the dugout after one-year suspensions whereas Beltrán hasn’t even gotten one other interview ought to boost an eyebrow as nicely. It’s additionally value noting that like spitballing/ball-doctoring, sign-stealing is a conduct that exists alongside a continuum of baseball historical past that stretches again practically a century and a half. The fan in me empathizes with that nice 2017 Dodgers group being cheated out of a title, however the trade skilled in me is aware of that the Astros have been merely probably the most excessive instance of a group stealing indicators electronically, a few of which have been finally reported and others simply whispered about.

Lengthy story brief, after spending hours speaking about Beltrán’s case with associates and fellow writers (a few of them voters), I returned to the framework of my PED coverage: If the commissioner couldn’t punish him for what he did, I’m not going to play the vigilante and administer frontier justice on behalf of MLB or the Corridor, therefore my continued inclusion of Beltrán. At this writing, he’s truly above 75% within the Tracker; whereas I don’t anticipate that to carry up, it’s clear he’ll be on his option to Cooperstown quickly.

Andruw Jones (eleventh amongst middle fielders in JAWS, 61.6% in 2024)

If 2018 Corridor of Fame honoree Chipper Jones was the Braves dynasty’s offensive cornerstone, Andruw Jones was its defensive one, an elite flychaser who gained 10 Gold Gloves and ranks first on the place in fielding runs (+235). He might hit, too, bopping 434 profession homers. His profession collapsed at age 31, nevertheless; he performed simply 435 video games over his closing 5 seasons, disappearing from the majors at age 35, and so whereas he’s nicely above the height commonplace, he’s brief on the profession one and in JAWS. I’m not so bothered given his relative rating and the truth that the requirements in middle and proper area are a number of factors larger than each different place. After two years within the mid-7% vary, he added greater than 50 share factors over the subsequent 4 cycles, and whereas his progress slowed final yr, he’s obtained an excellent shot at eventual election by the writers; at the moment, he’s polling above 70%.

One different holdover is a straightforward name:

Billy Wagner (sixth amongst relievers in R-JAWS, 73.8% in 2023)

The holder of the all-time data for strikeout price and opponent batting common, albeit at only a 900-inning threshold, Wagner is in need of the admittedly slapdash commonplace established by the eight enshrined relievers. Since I’ve by no means been totally glad with how JAWS handles that small group, I’ve remained open-minded, looking for alternate methods to guage relievers. By R-JAWS, which contains Win Likelihood Added (WPA) and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI) in addition to WAR, Wagner is the highest reliever outdoors the Corridor, trailing solely Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Wealthy Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman. After debuting at 10.5% in 2016 and gaining little floor within the subsequent three cycles, his assist greater than quadrupled from 2019 to ’23. Final yr, he fell 5 votes in need of election, and now, in his closing yr of eligibility, he’s already flipped 5 no votes to sure. He’s nearly definitely on his means.

All that’s the simple half. Setting apart two different potential holdovers for the second, I’ve obtained three first-year candidates who’re in grey areas:

Russell Martin (twenty eighth amongst catchers in conventional JAWS, fifth in framing-inclusive JAWS)

A four-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner, Martin was underappreciated throughout the mainstream throughout his profession, however groundbreaking research quantifying the worth of pitch framing revealed him to be among the many recreation’s elite receivers. Appearing upon that, each the Pirates and Blue Jays seen him as a doubtlessly transformative addition, prioritized signing him, and have been rewarded with a number of playoff appearances, ending droughts of longer than twenty years. Actually, Martin’s groups made the playoffs 11 instances in his 14 seasons, and that’s not a coincidence.

Martin is the profession chief in FanGraphs’ model of framing runs, 0.1 forward of McCann. Since Baseball Reference’s model of WAR doesn’t embody framing, however since that space of the sport has been proven to be so impactful — with a lot wider spreads from high to backside than blocking or throwing out baserunners — I consider we’re doing Twenty first-century candidates a disservice if we fail to include this significant space into our evaluation. Thus, for Martin and McCann, I’ve used a FanGraphs-based model of WAR and JAWS that comes with Baseball Prospectus’ framing values for the years earlier than 2008 as the principle worth metric; name them frWAR, frPeak, and frJAWS. Voìla:

Whereas I want we had framing numbers for extra catchers, league-wide pitch-by-pitch information for balls and strikes — and thus the power to find out referred to as strikes above common, the premise for pre-PITCHf/x framing estimates — doesn’t exist earlier than 1988. So we’re left to match those we do have, and everybody within the desk above is head and shoulders above the remainder of the pack, with the next-highest ranked catcher, Yasmani Grandal, at 36.8 frJAWS however not very productive.

Martin was the fifth-most useful place participant within the majors from 2006–16, with 50.6 fWAR; that trails solely Miguel Cabrera (62.5), Albert Pujols (52.7), Beltré (52.1), and Utley (51.8). The similarity of Martin’s frJAWS rating to that of Mauer and the upcoming Posey and Molina tandem leads me to conclude he’s value a vote, and I’m much more sure that voters want to think about these things close to Twenty first century catchers, significantly for the reason that computerized ball and strike system isn’t going to render this talent out of date. The pitch-by-pitch utilization of ABS was roundly rejected by Triple-A gamers, coaches, and managers final summer time in favor of a problem system restricted to some calls per recreation, and it’s not even clear when that can attain the majors. I don’t assume Martin will attain 75% anytime quickly; I simply hope he can pull 5% so we are able to proceed this dialogue subsequent yr.

Brian McCann (thirty fifth amongst catchers in conventional JAWS, seventh in framing-inclusive JAWS)

A seven-time All-Star who bashed 282 dwelling runs, McCann was a greater hitter than Martin (110 to 101 when it comes to OPS+), and the 2 are roughly deadlocked in our model of framing runs (165.7 to 165.6 in Martin’s favor). Baseball Prospectus’ pre-PITCHf/x information reveals that whereas Martin arrived within the majors as a superb framer, McCann was initially a awful one; he shortly improved, however the two are 63.3 runs aside for 2005–07, because the above desk reveals, and 6 factors aside in frJAWS. Once more, I believe this dialogue is value persevering with within the coming years, and really feel it’s significantly vital to incorporate each on my poll, even when that requires me to do a little bit of juggling.

Félix Hernández (97th in S-JAWS)

King Félix is on the root of my ballot-crowding drawback. From 2007–15, he was third within the majors with 45.9 WAR (together with offense) behind solely Clayton Kershaw (49.4, regardless of not debuting till Could 25, 2008) and Zack Greinke (47.0), two future Corridor of Famers, and from ’09–15, he was one of the best pitcher within the American League by ERA, strikeouts, and WAR. In that latter span, he made six All-Star groups, gained a Cy Younger, completed second twice, and fourth, seventh, and eighth in three different years. He was simply 19 when he debuted, and was labored so exhausting that by his age-29 season (2015), he’d thrown extra innings than some other starter who debuted after 1972 aside from Fernando Valenzuela. He by no means reached the postseason and was simply 33 when he threw his final aggressive pitch; his fastball had misplaced its zip and he was unable to make the changes essential to additional his profession.

By S-JAWS, it’s simple sufficient to dismiss Hernández’s candidacy, however in gentle of the workload modifications that should dial down our expectations for starters, it’s value contemplating different approaches. I attempted a number of on for dimension; the closest I’ve come to being satisfied is predicated on Mike Petriello’s take a look at WAR throughout seven or 10 consecutive seasons, one thing I attempted myself on the event of two-time Cy Younger winner Corey Kluber’s retirement. For the 2005–14 stretch, Hernández did have the very best WAR of any pitcher, and as Petriello notes, of the 19 pitchers who could make the same declare for any 10-year interval going again to 1950, 13 are within the Corridor, two extra are on their means (Kershaw and Max Scherzer), and one could be in if not for PED allegations (Clemens). That leaves Dave Stieb, Ron Guidry, and Hernández — three pitchers with nice however brief careers — to reckon with.

I’m not saying I consider all three belong within the Corridor, and I’m not but satisfied Hernández does, however I do know that I don’t need him to fall off the poll and be forged right into a decades-long limbo alongside two-time Cy Younger winner Johan Santana, who obtained simply 2.4% on a really crowded 2018 poll. I’m voting for Hernández to assist guarantee he reaches 5% and maintains eligibility, which might give voters — myself included — at the very least one other yr to let his candidacy marinate.

With apologies to Pedroia and Wright, two nice gamers whose careers simply weren’t lengthy sufficient, the selection comes down to 2 different gamers for my tenth spot. I’ve included one on all 4 of my earlier ballots:

Bobby Abreu (twenty second amongst proper fielders in JAWS, 14.8% in 2024)

A five-tool participant with dazzling pace, a candy left-handed stroke, and sufficient energy to win a Residence Run Derby, Abreu was a stathead favourite because of his otherworldly plate self-discipline. He posted on-base percentages of .400 or larger eight instances (.395 for his profession) because of his potential to take a stroll (100 or extra eight years in a row). But regardless of routinely reaching conventional seasonal plateaus — a .300 batting common (six instances), 20 homers (9 instances), 30 steals (six instances), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight instances apiece) — he was ridiculously underappreciated by the mainstream, making simply two All-Star groups and successful one Gold Glove. He barely scraped by in his 2020 poll debut with 5.5%, however broke into double digits for the primary time in ’23 (15.4%), then stagnated in ’24.

The opposite possibility is a pitcher whom I included final yr for the primary time, in his sixth yr of eligibility:

Andy Pettitte (81st amongst beginning pitchers in S-JAWS, 13.5% in 2024)

Although he solely made three All-Star groups and by no means completed larger than second within the Cy Younger voting, Pettitte was a rotation mainstay on 5 championship groups, eight that reached the World Sequence, and 14 that reached the playoffs. His postseason totals of 44 begins, 19 wins, and 276.2 innings are all data, thanks partially to the expanded format, and his 3.81 postseason ERA is a ringer for his 3.85 common season mark, which equates to a 117 ERA+, which is forward of twenty-two enshrined starters and tied with two others. His postseason résumé gives some separation between him and the in any other case related Buehrle, pitchers whose S-JAWS falls within the twenty seventh and twenty eighth percentiles relative to these already enshrined.

I tabbed Pettitte final yr to spherical out my poll at 10, a nod to the notion of constant the dialogue of beginning pitching requirements, and of grappling with the amount of postseason information for Twenty first century gamers (Sam Miller has written some thought-provoking stuff on this).

In the long run, having already made one attain past my regular analytical vary within the pitching division (Félix), I made a decision to not make a second; Pettitte misses my reduce this yr. He’s already clinched a berth on subsequent yr’s poll based mostly on the votes within the Tracker, whereas Abreu has not. I’ll proceed to think about Pettitte and the load of his postseason work for future ballots.

Once more, one other imperfect poll within the books and the mailbox:

As soon as once more, I’m gratified that after overlaying baseball and analyzing Corridor of Fame elections for therefore lengthy on the surface, I get to forged a poll. It’s nonetheless only one vote from amongst practically 400, much less impactful than my work to sway precise voters and assist the likes of Raines, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Walker, Rolen and others discover houses in Cooperstown, but it surely’s additionally symbolic.

I say this yearly but it surely bears repeating: I’m standing on the shoulders of giants within the area of baseball evaluation, individuals who entered this trade with out going by conventional newspaper shops and who both have been by no means admitted into the BBWAA or didn’t final lengthy sufficient inside it to vote. I’d choose a voting course of that discovered room for them and for different consultants from past the mainstream, however as long as it doesn’t, I’ll do my finest to symbolize.