Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/19/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! Welcome to a different version of my weekly chat — the primary one in two weeks. It’s been a full of life time round Casa Jaffe-Span these days as a consequence of pending actual property transactions; I missed final week’s caht and was late setting this one up. Since i’m additionally late in securing lunch, I’m going to let the queue replenish for a couple of extra minutes after which gentle this candle.

Chadwick: Is that this the stadium proposal that will get finished in St. Pete?

Jay Jaffe: This isn’t only a proposal, they really seem to have a deal, so sure. Apart from the truth that they actually couldn’t get some other offers finished till now, what I don’t get is how this one solves one of many large issues that Tropicana Area has confronted, which is just attending to the ballpark given its location.

Jay Jaffe: As a result of this park will probably be proper close to the present one

Jay Jaffe: and it’s a dome, not even a retractable.

Jay Jaffe: it will likely be fascinating to see how this ignites the dialogue of enlargement to 32 groups. After I wrote about Salt Lake Metropolis’s stunning bid, it was clear that fixing the Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium points was essential and each have now been, uh, handled.

Gage Harrison: With this years harm at Dodger Stadium, has Decide ruined his possibilities on the HOF? What would he have to do subsequent yr and the next years to nonetheless be a strong case?

Jay Jaffe: For Decide it’s a missed alternative to have an enormous season, however even with jsut 3.4 bWAR, he’s improved his peak rating

Jay Jaffe: (apologies, I’ve received some incoming work communiques to are likely to amid all of this)

Entrance workplace: Do you see aj preller and Brian cashman maintaining their jobs for for much longer? I virtually get the sense every of their kinds would go well with the alternative franchise higher than the present

Jay Jaffe: Regardless of their groups’ disappointing seasons and a few anger from their fan bases, there’s zero signal up to now that both of them is on the recent seat from possession; until they determine to stroll away, the job will probably be theirs for at the least one other yr.

Jay Jaffe: That stated, it’s clear that modifications are coming to each organizations this winter. In all probability a brand new supervisor in San Diego, and a variety of roster turnover. Positively some entrance workplace overhaul in New York based mostly on what Hal Steinbrenner stated a couple of weeks in the past about exterior consulting evaluating the org (ugh, the McKinseyfication of baseball)

Yeah Properly Hiura Towel: What number of years till the Contreras brothers are the very best brother catching duo in MLB historical past?

Jay Jaffe: i’m unsure they’ll ever get there. Even if you happen to’re solely counting fWAR (to seize a few of the framing), Yadier and Bengie Molina have totaled 66.2, the Contreri 25.3, and I’m skeptical that Willson stays at catcher for everything of his profession.

Mike M: I’ve heard a couple of folks remark that the lengthy listing of harm woes for Dodgers pitchers is partly the fault of the group and never simply random dangerous luck.  Maybe because of the membership making an attempt to max out their pitcher’s velocity on the expense of the pitcher’s well being, and many others.  I’ve additionally heard Tampa can be grouped in right here.  What do you assume?  Are these analytically-advanced golf equipment worse for his or her pitchers’ well being?  Do the golf equipment deserve blame?  Is that this one thing that deserves extra dialogue, or is simply sizzling air?

Jay Jaffe: That’s query that deserves an extended look however offhand it looks like it’s principally sizzling ai. The Rockies misplaced two pitchers to Tommy John surgical procedure, as did each the Dodgers and Rays, this yr and I don’t assume anybody would describe them as foremost in analytics. The Angels can have three as soon as Ohtani will get his, and identical.

Jay Jaffe: What might be occurring is that the success of the Dodgers and Rays in taking part in deeper into October is taxing these arms greater than groups that don’t go to the playoffs

Jay Jaffe: (and to be clear, arm accidents are about simply greater than TJ surgical procedure tallies)

Rays: Odds the brand new stadium actually boosts attendance long run regardless of nonetheless not being in Tampa?

Jay Jaffe: after an preliminary enchancment, most likely fairly slim, esp. if the brand new place seats solely 30,000

Steve: Jay,Simply fascinated about Harold Baines’ profession and the facility of milestones. He completed his profession with 2866 hits, 488 doubles, and 386 residence runs and dropped off the poll after his second yr. His groups additionally misplaced 75% of a season throughout his profession because of the 1981 strike and 1994/1995 strike. I believe if these strikes didn’t occur, he would have achieved 500 doubles and 400 residence runs and gotten shut sufficient to three,000 hits that he would possibly tried to increase his profession to attain that milestone. If he had ended his profession with 3,000/500/400, would he have been voted into the corridor of fame by the writers although his worth by WAR would most likely not have dramatically modified?

Jay Jaffe: he’d have been first-ballot due to the three,000 hits. No person in 2007 was being attentive to WAR as a result of neither FanGraphs nor B-Ref had launched their model of it, and few voters had been being attentive to Baseball Prospectus’ WARP and JAWS (belief me, i do know this)

Jay Jaffe: That’s how Jim Rice received elected, in spite of everything

CJ: Votto is a slam-dunk HoFer at this level, proper?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say fairly near slam dunk. Superior stats and voters each love him

Jay Jaffe: gonna make sure Cincinnati scribes SOOO MAD

Eric: What’s the doubtless timeline for MLB enlargement now that the Rays and A’s stadium conditions have an finish in sight?

Jay Jaffe: I count on we’ll hear one thing on the All-Star break if not earlier than

Asian baseball hype prepare: Would you moderately see a KBO or NPB recreation?

Jay Jaffe: sure.

Jay Jaffe: I’d watch each if they’d straightforward availability right here within the US

Jay Jaffe: not day by day, thoughts you, however I’d love to take a look at the celebs of every league

Carlos Ruiz: Hello Jay. On condition that he’s now retired, do you’ve got ideas on how Cole Hamels will probably be obtained by HOF voters? My first thought is he stacks up nicely to his time but when he’s evaluated on earlier requirements would possibly fall quick

Jay Jaffe: I can see him lingering across the backside of the poll for a couple of years like Mark Buehrle (he’s 71st in JAWS, Buehrle 78th). I’m extra inclined to vote for him than Buehrle — he packed a bit extra worth into about 500 fewer innings — however I don’t see him gaining a lot traction

AL Central Casting: Are you trying ahead to zombie-runner-free baseball within the postseason? Will it really feel bizarre or refreshing (or each)? Sooner or later, will all of us be so used to beginning further innings with a runner on that it does really feel unusual to have nobody on? And can that make it simpler to ultimately implement it in future postseasons (not that I would like it)?

Jay Jaffe: Truthfully I usually cease being attentive to extra-inning video games after the tenth as a result of the rule is so dumb and 3- or 5- run innings appear frequent the deeper you dig into the bullpen (living proof, the Dodgers’ 6-2 win in 11 over the Mariners on Saturday, after the 2 groups went scoreless by way of 9).

Jay Jaffe: So I welcome the return of Actual Baseball in October

2024: What’s the easiest way to know how a lot a workforce has on contracts subsequent yr? RosterResource is nice however we don’t have arbritration projections but.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume anybody within the trade has arbitration projections. but, so I feel you’re by yourself till about mid-October after we begin to see these

Mr Redlegs: I’m a bit of confused on the 3-way tiebreaker potentialities. My understanding was that if the Reds tied the Dbacks and the Cubs for a spot the Reds would win due to face to face  data towards each, however that’s not how you’ve got it. Are you able to make clear?

Jay Jaffe: Right here’s what I wrote:

“Suppose for instance that the Phillies declare a spot, the Giants fade out of the image, and the opposite 4 groups wind up tied for 2 spots. In that case, the Marlins (11–7, .611) would have the benefit over the Reds (14–12, .538), Diamondbacks (10–9, .526) and Cubs (9–16, .360) by way of head-to-head data and would get one Wild Card spot.”

That half is true, however that is incorrect:

“As a substitute of continuous with that pecking order, nonetheless, the opposite three groups can be re-ranked as follows: Diamondbacks (8–5, .615), Reds (11–9, .550), Cubs (7–12, .368).”

Jay Jaffe: You’re proper in that as a result of the Reds have successful data towards each of the opposite groups, they win that one with out tweezing out the win%

Jay Jaffe: Will replace, thanks and apologies for the confusion.

Brian Snitker: It’s exhausting to out-hit a September employees ERA of round 6, even for these Braves’ bats. How large of an issue is the pitching employees going into the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: I like to recommend not dwelling an excessive amount of on September stats an excessive amount of. The Braves will have the ability to throw a rested Strider, Fried, Elder, and Morton at opponents, and that’s a reasonably robust entrance 4. I is likely to be a bit extra involved concerning the Braves’ bullpen; the workforce could certainly be extra susceptible than they’ve appeared for a lot of the season.

Sox Fan: May the Sox commerce Verdugo for a SP? I’d be involved in Tommy Edman too: elite defensive 2B and velocity on the basepaths = two issues we’re lacking

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume you’re going to get something on the size of Edman for Verdugo, and never simply because the previous has two years of membership management remaining, the latter one.

Jay Jaffe: Groups are nicely conscious of Verdugo’s lapses at this level. His inventory is down.

KC Ache: What do you consider finish of yr pitcher rookies? Sawyer Lengthy, Boyle, and many others.  Different groups simply worn out and dont put inventory in it or breakout?

Jay Jaffe: Are you asking me to name 10 MLB innings from Gipson-Lengthy and three from Boyle a breakout?

TomBruno23: Watched Lengthy Gone Summer time final weekend to commemorate the twenty fifth anniversary of 62. Good to see your smiling face as one of many honored interviewees!

Visitor: What occurs when the brand new St. Pete stadium opens and Rays followers nonetheless don’t present up?

Jay Jaffe: They launch a nonsensical pitch to get a stadium in-built Montreal to play in for half the season?

AL Central Casting: Ketel Marte: lastly wholesome once more or outlier yr? Is that this a degree of efficiency we will count on going ahead (assuming well being)?

Jay Jaffe: Marte has proven himself to be a really unstable participant, with star-level odd-numbered seasons and league-average even-numbered ones in a sample that goes again to 2018. He’s totaled 4.8 WAR within the evens (2018, 20, 22) and 12.3 within the odds, and even if you happen to make allowances for the pandemic, the hole is hanging and appears to be pushed a good bit by BABIP. In all probability price a more in-depth look — perhaps I’ll write about him.

Marshall: If Mookie wished to maximise WAR, which place would he play?

Jay Jaffe: For those who imagine the small-sample metrics (and I’d warning towards that) then second base might be the place he might maintain above-average protection, whereas I feel he’s first rate/satisfactory/typically spectacular at shortstop

Lance: Accidents apart do you’ve got any considerations about Cody Bellinger in 2024?  I picked him as a flyer for this yr and have gone from “nicely perhaps he can…” to “wow he’s again!”.

Jay Jaffe: He’s one other unstable participant and a relentless tinkerer together with his mechanics, so I’d fear about sustaining this degree, however I do assume the upside is there

KC Ache: Is Bobby Witt Jr doomed to be the AL Central model of Mike Trout?

Jay Jaffe: That presumes the Royals may even fake to contend, and boy howdy for as a lot because the Angels are a large number they’ve at the least kind of finished that-ish for many of Trout’s run

Birds: All of the HOF focus is (for good cause) about who will get in, however I’m actually curious concerning the guys who won’t ever get in, however handle to stay round on the poll – the Torii Hunters and Mark Buehrles.  Have you ever checked out what makes these kind of gamers?  Like, will Bartolo Colon dangle round on the poll?  Adam Jones?  Curious what you recognize concerning the matter.

Jay Jaffe: A lot of who lingers on the poll is about who else is on it — Johan Santana and Kenny Lofton had higher careers than the fellows you be aware however they arrived throughout unbelievable crunches for area on the poll, not solely by way of pure expertise but in addition the PED-created logjam that brought on the likes of Bonds, Clemens and others to linger the place they might have in any other case been elected simply.

Jay Jaffe: I can see Colon hanging round due to his bulk profession numbers (no pun supposed) and cult standing however that appears much less doubtless for Jones.

Mike: Have you ever ever considered updating and doing a brand new Cooperstown Casebook. If I bear in mind accurately from the e book, the fellows who had the very best JAWS and weren’t presently enshrined have all been elected besides Bobby Grich, Dick Allen, Andruw Jones, and Schilling. Perhaps as soon as they’re all elected however it’s a beautiful e book and I simply wished to know from the supply if an up to date one was coming ultimately.

Jay Jaffe: (re-running this one with the complete query since I didn’t see it earlier than)

Jay Jaffe: I’ve considered it loads and haven’t dominated it out, however it’s… sophisticated to say the least. The publishing trade has modified loads since 2017, when that e book got here out

Jay Jaffe: The e book is formally out of print, nonetheless, and there are not any plans to print extra copies, so if you happen to’re making an attempt to attain one, better of luck (I’ve a couple of available for many who want to buy signed ones — hit me up on social media)

Preller: Sorry, by accident hit ship too early. What has AJ Preller finished incorrect over the previous couple of years? It appears much more dangerous luck than dangerous workforce constructing, until there’s a chemistry situation I’m lacking. In any other case, his worst strikes are within the distant previous (Hosmer).

Jay Jaffe: Based mostly on what I learn in The Athletic piece that ran at the moment (https://theathletic.com/4874799/2023/09/19/san-diego-padres-disaster-s…) and that my spouse stayed up into the wee hours modifying, Preller appears to be a greater evaluator of expertise than people-manager. His fashion is to outwork, outwork, outwork with out adjusting to evolving circumstances, and that’s not essentially one which wears nicely

Jay Jaffe: The present workforce does appear to be missing in situational hitting, however it doesn’t assist that guys like Machado and Bogaerts have been at a lot lower than 100% as a consequence of accidents.

Max: Any concept why for the final two years Bregman can’t hit lefties after destroying them his first few years?

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps he must know what’s coming?

Jay Jaffe: I say that with tongue solely partially in cheek. Bregman has by no means been pretty much as good general as he was in 2018-19 (not 2017, notably). 137-107 break up in wRC+ over the previous three years, tilted in direction of righties. Price a more in-depth look sooner or later.

Gary: How do you are feeling about Smokey Joe Wooden as a excessive peak, quick profession candidate for the Corridor of Fame? Outdoors of a single begin and two aid appearances in Cleveland he’s received a 1.99 ERA and 146 ERA+

Jay Jaffe: very fascinating profession as an elite pitcher after which, post-injury, an OK part-time outfielder, however it’s not like he was racking up worth within the latter part (6.7 WAR in 460 video games unfold over 5 seasons). I don’t see sufficient to benefit election

Offseason’s Comin’: What’s the standing of/your present opinion of the offseason FA marketplace for SP? Asking as a Reds fan determined for the membership to signal somebody, who’s conscious of the Reds frugality , and frightened that with no ton of high names, different groups with a bit extra willingness to spend will outbid one another for mid-tier arms that the Reds would usually try to scoop up.

Associated be aware – J. Urias can shove rocks.

Jay Jaffe: The market can even have Blake Snell off a potential Cy Younger win, Aaron Nola off a meh season, Sonny Grey, Kershaw, Giolito, Montgomery, Flaherty, Maeda, and potential opt-outs from Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s a variety of choices to do… one thing, however a few of them are increased threat than others.

Nate: If Adam Wainwright doesn’t get harm and has seasons in 2011-2012 that mirrored the 2 years earlier than and after them (let’s say he even wins a CYA), would that 6 yr run be sufficient to significantly contemplate him for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: It actually retains him on the dialog longer, however we’re speaking a couple of man who would have ~52 WAR as an alternative of ~41. that might barely crack the highest 100 by way of profession WAR and would most likely be someplace round 48 JAWS, Hamels-Santana-Hudson territory.

bringbackpologrounds: Ideas on incorporating a few of the newer defensive metrics into JAWS? BB-Ref’s dWAR based mostly on DRS appears to be getting phased out.

Jay Jaffe: The place do you see them phasing it out?

Jay Jaffe: additionally you’re most likely misunderstanding dWAR

Jay Jaffe: which is the sum of no matter defensive metric is getting used (Whole Zone by way of 2002, DRS thereafter) plus the positional adjustment

Jay Jaffe: I’m not against integrating newer defensive metrics into JAWS in the event that they’re doing it as a part of their defensive element (they’ve already finished it earlier than) however I’m not homebrewing one thing to switch publicly accessible metrics

Kurupt FM: Looks as if a season with 0 200 inning SP is coming down the pipe within the close to future. Do you assume this some extent of no return? Will it ever swing within the different path once more?

Jay Jaffe: Bear in mind final yr when everyone was turning cartwheels over how good Sandy Alcantara’s 228-inning season was?

Jay Jaffe: his efficiency has taken a step again and he’s received a strained flexor, in order that’s not a fantastic commercial for an outlying workload. I don’t see the development in workload reductions reversing with out wholesale modifications in the best way pitchers are managed.

manfred mess band: It’s fairly intelligent of mlb to purchase Rawlings to regulate the ball. Do you assume it’s in Manfred’s greatest curiosity to juice and kill the ball relying on upcoming free agent lessons?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume MLB is sort of that able to pulling off such a conspiracy, sorry.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, time for me to get alongside. Thanks a lot for stopping by at the moment and for bearing with the rocky beginnings of this week’s chat. Take care!

Jay Jaffe: oops, i’ll permit the follow-up right here

bringbackpologrounds: I’ve simply learn that newer stats equivalent to OAA and its derivatives are higher for evaluating protection than DRS, which continues to be the primary element for bWAR.

Jay Jaffe: to be clear: if B-Ref integrates OAA into WAR, I will probably be completely happy to make use of it, simply as I’m completely happy to make use of our WAR, which makes use of OAA because the vary element for UZR (not changing UZR fully) in calculating worth.

Jay Jaffe: okay, that’s it.