Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/17/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to the LCS version of my weekly chat. Yesterday we had a few video games that acquired blown open early however tightened up late, and we now have the Rangers heading again to Arlington up 2-0 and the Phillies up 1-0 on the Diamondbacks after Schwaber, Harper, and Castellanos hit about 1300 toes price of early homers.

Jay Jaffe: Subsequent up for me is a chunk on Kim Ng’s departure from Miami and hopefully a Corbin Carroll factor for later this week.

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the present

KC Ache: Any data on Ng?  Looks as if possession and her w a rift from what I learn…..however was that occuring all yr?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll have extra tomorrow however I feel there have been a few associated issues happening. Ng needed to scrub home a bit so far as employees to seek out individuals she was extra in alignment with and convey some new voices into the group — one thing that labored out properly when she acquired to rent a brand new supervisor (Schumaker) — however proprietor Bruce Sherman apparently wasn’t amenable to that. He’s planning on bringing in a president of baseball operations, so she basically would have been demoted to second-in-command, which doesn’t play properly if you’ve simply guided a crew to its first full season above .500 in 14 years and their first full-season playoff berth in 20.

Yeah Properly Hiura Towel: The way in which the playoff format has developed over the a long time, we are actually seeing extra video games that includes lesser groups, and fewer video games that includes the very best groups. This doesn’t appear fascinating to me; I might suppose the optimum format can be a showcase of the elite groups taking part in one another.

Jay Jaffe: sure however there’s extra playoff video games, see, and within the eyes of Rob Manfred and the MLB homeowners, meaning extra money no matter who will get the piece of metallic.

Jay Jaffe: It’s necessary to keep in mind that MLB’s imaginative and prescient of optimizing means extra money, with a nod to aggressive steadiness within the “everyone-has-a-chance” model

Jay Jaffe: whereas your imaginative and prescient of optimizing (and mine) might be one thing a lot totally different

Unhappy White Sox Fan: Why do the White Sox need to be the post-World Sequence Kansas Metropolis Royals?

Jay Jaffe: Man, it’s a tragic factor when your primary aspiration in life is to take care of a vise-like grip on fourth place within the AL Central.

Jay Jaffe: I feel Jerry Reinsdorf would possibly have a look at the Royals and say, “See, they’re not spending some huge cash and who cares?”

Kevin: Do you suppose there would have been a lot outcry in regards to the variety of days off for division winners had the collection been extra aggressive? (I actually suppose the larger difficulty was the collection lacked drama fairly than the underdogs gained. Had the collection been aggressive, I believe individuals can be applauding the underdogs for having gained.)

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s largely a response to the Dodgers and Orioles geting smoked. The Braves-Phillies collection was moderately aggressive in that three of the 4 video games have been determined by a complete of six runs, however the Braves solely led fleetingly. The Twins-Astros collection was fairly aggressive, too.

Tim: Is the Orioles’ 2024 nearer at present within the group or will he be added this low season?

Jay Jaffe: With Bautista out resulting from TJ, it wouldn’t shock me in the event that they exit and get somebody, although on the similar time, I don’t suppose they’re inclined to spend large cash on a name-brand nearer, so deciding amongst Cano, Perez, and possibly Corridor may very well be a means to economize and spend it on one other space of want.

Sean Malloy: Of the large three energetic relievers (Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman), which one do you suppose will get probably the most assist on the HOF poll? How a lot do you suppose BBWAA voters worth postseason efficiency for reduction pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: I feel Kimbrel and Jansen are properly forward of Chapman when it comes to seemingly assist, they usually have very comparable numbers and profession patterns, so it’s robust to separate them. As for postseason stuff, the writers do worth it for closers, however as Billy Wagner’s climb in direction of 75% illustrates, an absence of it isn’t essentially a dealbreaker.

KC Ache: Hoping the fever isnt a double entendre and you might be beneath the climate.  Who do you suppose has had the simplest path thus far looking back?  The hardest?

Jay Jaffe: Fortunately I’m in good well being aside from a perpetual scarcity of sleep. By way of paths up to now, assuming you’re speaking in regards to the 4 groups nonetheless standing, it’s clearly the Astros, who confronted an 87-win crew of their solely spherical in comparison with the others every knocking off a crew with 100 or extra wins. As for the hardest path up to now, it’s in all probability the Rangers, who swept two groups that mixed to win 200 video games this yr.

Too many Mooks: If Ohtani indicators with the dodgers, do you suppose it turns into *much less * seemingly that Kershaw retires this offseason, due to how enjoyable that crew may very well be?

Jay Jaffe: I feel Kershaw’s determination will come earlier than Ohtani’s, partially as a result of there does clearly appear to be some medical facet to it. That shoulder wasn’t proper, and I’m wondering if he wants surgical procedure.

Sammy So-so: So, was the limitless chorus about shifting suppressing offense a variety of scorching air or was there truly some impact? Can we inform after one season? Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Properly, yr over yr the MLB-wide batting common rose 5 factors (from .243 to .248) and BABIPs rose by seven factors (from .290 to .297), with slugging percentages rising 19 factors (.395 to .414), although that half might have been much less attributable to the shift than to rising house run charges. I feel it’s going to take a number of seasons to get a real grasp on the consequences of the ban however it does appear to have stimulated some offense.

Brewers: 20 Pirates: 0: Actually impressed with the Texas Rangers postseason thus far. Can they presumably win a World Sequence title with out shedding a playoff sport?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt it. No person has executed it within the age of the Wild Card, and that i’m simply not holding my breath anticipating that they are going to.

Schmeeper: What are the chances Houston takes 2/3 or 3/3 in Texas? They’ve performed rather well in Arlington and I just like the pitching matchups for Houston (I imagine in JV if it comes right down to needing a win in sport 5).

Jay Jaffe: Going by the ZiPS game-by-game odds, they’ve a couple of 1-in-8 likelihood of taking the following three video games and — did I do that proper? — a couple of 3-in-8 likelihood of taking two of three.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Might Playoff Harper do something that might surpass him as being larger than Mike Trout?  I do know playoff success is crew based mostly, however the narrative…

Jay Jaffe: Eh, possibly from a story standpoint, Harper may surpass Trout — or already has — however Trout has virtually a 40-WAR edge on Harper (85.2 to 46.2 in bWAR) along with extra particular person {hardware}.

Noah: Is there information that might enable factoring impression performs into evaluation of participant worth? As an illustration, I’m considering final evening of how Schwarber turning on that first pitch fastball and the way it set an offensive tone/strategy for the following few innings.

Jay Jaffe: You may have a look at WPA or Championship WPA should you’re making an attempt to quantify the impression of a play however Schwarber’s homer, as emphatic because it was, doesn’t stand out tremendously. It elevated the Phillies’ probabilities of successful by 10%, tied with the play by which Moreno reached on Dominguez’s throwing error to place first and third with no out within the seventh, with Harper’s homer 9%, and Gurriel’s game-ending GIDP 9% as properly. Within the ALCS sport that preceded them there have been not less than 5 performs that swung the chances 10% or extra in a single route or one other

KC Ache: Ideas on what ATL does now?  Go large on SP reinforcements?  Give it one other go and simply pray they keep away from Philly subsequent yr?

Jay Jaffe: sure, they should reinforce their rotation, significantly with Wright out for the season resulting from capsule surgical procedure. They’ve a $20 million choice on Morton that’s in all probability price choosing up whilst he heads into his age-40 season (he was at 2.7 WAR this yr) however I feel they want not less than yet another mid-rotation arm.

Homer: Albies at 19.3 fWAR at 26.75 years outdated, which is a good begin, however he appears to be topping out within the 4-4.5 WAR/yr vary.  Any likelihood he has one other gear that may give him the kind of peak which may lead to a spot within the HOF?  Would one other 10 years of 4 to 4.5 struggle get him there, even with out the star-level peak?

Jay Jaffe: He’s an excellent participant, and 20.2 bWAR by means of his age-26 season ranks twenty third amongst second basemen, with some HOFers adjoining (see https://stathead.com/tiny/1OStr), however he has but to place up a single 5.0 WAR season and he’s going to have to seek out a few of these to face out as a candidate.

Smiling Politely: If the Brewers have been sensible, they’d interview Ng to exchange Stearns after which beat the Marlins subsequent yr

Jay Jaffe: The issue together with your concept is that Matt Arnold is now the Brewers’ president of baseball operations so I don’t see a spot for Ng there. The one POBO opening, I feel, is the Crimson Sox except the White Sox resolve to usher in anyone above Chris Getz — which could be type of bizarre on condition that they simply promoted him, however possibly that’s why their search didn’t appear all that in depth.

Vermonty: If a GM’s large strikes backfire, shouldn’t they lose their job? I’m considering Cashman right here, and I’ve all the time defended him , however is now the time for a change?

Jay Jaffe: The issue is that you simply’re assuming that solely the largest and most publicly seen bets — this signing, that commerce — matter, when there’s an entire lot extra that goes into the job. Which isn’t essentially to defend Cashman, who like the remainder of us is watching a variety of ex-Yankees have tremendous postseasons, however it’s simply not so simple as “they misplaced this commerce, off along with his head.”

Jay Jaffe: Personally I feel the Yankees ought to kick Cashman upstairs and usher in a brand new GM, and Ng would appear to be well-suited for that chance.

marginal utility participant: ideas on “playoff performers” generally? Is it pattern dimension? affirmation bias? or are some gamers simply higher within the postseason?

The participant who might be most identified for being an amazing postseason performer lately is David Ortiz, whose postseason numbers are a seams’ width away from his common season statistics. The entire notion of some gamers being particular in postseason simply looks like an overrated speaking level to me

Jay Jaffe: Lots of it’s pattern dimension however I do suppose some gamers are significantly well-wired for the postseason, higher capable of focus and never let the second overtake them in ways in which will increase the potential for success. That mentioned, David Ortiz went 2-for-22 within the 2013 ALCS and had a number of different dud collection. Harper hit simply .200/.360/.400 in final yr’s World Sequence. Mariano Rivera gave up the 2001 walk-off hit to Luis Gonzalez within the World Sequence and the decisive homer to Sandy Alomar Jr. within the 1997 ALDS. No participant is so clutch that they’re ceaselessly infallible within the playoffs.

12 to six: Kershaw/[Giolito]/Buehler/Miller/Pepiot/Sheehan/Grove/Ferguson/Stone/[May]/[Gonzo].

Assuming CK comes again, and even with out a topline SP signing (like Giolito, who can be an amazing match) am I simply foolish for being cautiously optimistic. The playoffs have been a catastrophe however the Dodgers *did* efficiently break in about 2/5 of a pitching employees this yr….

Jay Jaffe: They’ve a variety of younger expertise, however the issue — as we’ve already seen — is that younger pitchers get damage, don’t develop evenly, and face workload constraints. They’ll want to seek out some pitchers to take up vital innings, whether or not that’s Giolito or Lynn (on whom they’ve an choice) or anyone else. However significantly with Urias gone, they do want one other frontliner, which is why it is sensible for them to go after Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Visitor: Is Ng a scorching sufficient commodity at this level to make somebody just like the Padres or Angels drop Preller or Minasian and make a run?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt both of these groups will hearth a sitting exec to rent her however it’s price noting that Preller is POBO in San Diego, whereas Minasian is simply the GM in Anaheim, with no POBO above him.

The Oriole Fowl: As an O’s fan, this crew got here thus far out from left subject this yr to win 101 video games, that I say who cares that they acquired swept by the Rangers.  Let’s benefit from the subsequent 3-4 years!

Jay Jaffe: There’s extra expertise on the way in which beginning with Jackson Holliday, so it’s an excellent time to be an O’s fan. Hopefully they will take the success and exhausting classes from this season and construct upon them.

KC Ache: Odds Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer retire this yr?  All appear to be in spots the place playoffs are attainable subsequent yr.

Jay Jaffe: Kershaw is a free agent and should properly resolve he’s had sufficient. Verlander and Shcherzer are each assured $43.3 million subsequent yr, however, so I’d say there’s a sub-zero likelihood both retires no matter what occurs this October.

Deck: Concerning blaming the GM — it appears to me, that what isn’t identified publicly is how a lot the GM acts on his personal initiative and the way a lot the GM acts merely as an agent for the proprietor.  It appears harsh to fireplace a man as a result of he did what you instructed him to do.

Jay Jaffe: Sure, excellent factors. The GM and even the POBO doesn’t set the funds, doesn’t unilaterally make the large signing, and so forth.

Benny: Final yr we had 4 additional inning postseason video games. There haven’t been any but this yr. And we haven’t had any winner-take-all video games both. Any concept when the final yr we had a postseason with no additional innings or winner take all video games?

Jay Jaffe: By way of Stathead, it appears just like the final time we didn’t have a postseason additional inning sport was 2006, with 2002 the one different Wild Card-era season with out one. It appears like we final lacked what Stathead calls a “sudden dying” sport was in 2009, with 1998 the one different Wild-Card period season with out one.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you suppose 2028 Olympic baseball will compete with 2029 WBC for gamers/curiosity/and so forth? What are the chances professionals truly are allowed to compete within the Olympics?

Jay Jaffe: Doubt they’ll be competing towards one another as a result of I don’t see MLB stopping its season to permit energetic main leaguers to play. Nor ought to it as a result of **** the Olympics.

Ben: Considering again to Mike Trout being drafted at twenty fifth, how a lot of that was he being a child from NJ versus individuals simply missed it with him?  I do know drafts are tough, however it looks like he was good in professional ball from the phrase Go!

James: The place would you set the chances the Yordan breaks the all-time playoff house run report finally? 12 homers at age 26 is formidable.

Jay Jaffe: Properly, he’s not even midway to Manny Ramirez’s report of 29, and the factor I’d fear about with him is accidents; he’s already had one main knee harm, has averaged simply 131 video games over the previous three seasons, and is especially a DH. Don’t get me unsuitable, I anticipate him to maintain accumulating postseason homers, however even when he’s averaging over 4 postseason homers a yr whereas the Astros play three rounds, he’s acquired to undergo one other 4 seasons like that — and it appears unlikely the Astros can be that constantly aggressive for that lengthy.

Lorenzo: Will Kodai Senga get the next total rating in ROY voting or CY Younger voting?

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’ll in all probability be 2nd within the NL Rookie of the Yr voting to Corbin Carroll, however I determine not less than Snell, Strider,  and Steele will end forward of him within the Cy Younger voting, presumably with the 2 Zac(ok)s forward of him too. Nonetheless, a really good season

12 to six: oh, with out query la wants two arms that may absorb 180-200 innings, which is why i’d suppose lynn coming again and one other mid-range starter is probably going (and why urias going out, and justifiably, was a depth cost for them – he was common to stable this yr on the mound, however he was principally a assure to take the ball each 5 days). i’d love yamamoto however they nonetheless want one other innings soaker.

Jay Jaffe: agreed

Mateo: are you able to share extra about your specific distaste for the Olympics, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: the IOC is inherently corrupt in its dealings, with the host metropolis the one that may bribe probably the most officers. They’ve already proven a disdain for baseball by not having or not it’s a daily medal sport (the 2021 Olympics was the primary time since 2008 and it gained’t be there in 2024).

mac: what makes the yankees suppose they’re so particular that they don’t have to vary personnel when issues have gone horribly awry?

Jay Jaffe: cash. revenue. inexperienced.

Jay Jaffe: They’re a money-making machine and maybe too complacent in regards to the worth of the model versus the necessity to wield their monetary clout with a purpose to fortify their roster.

Benny: You simply talked about Senga, Snell, Strider, Steele, Gallen, and Wheeler within the Cy Younger combine. I do know Webb didn’t have the shiniest W-L report or ERA, however simply averaging bWAR and fWAR collectively, he comes out forward of all 6 of the others. I’m certain Snell will win, however do you suppose Webb will get any consideration from the voters?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose he’ll be shut out, and don’t want to denigrate his season in any respect — it was a rattling good one — however an 11-13 report with fewer than 200 strikeouts isn’t going to assist him stand out within the present crowd.

Bernardo: Within the case of a Phillies-Rangers World Sequence, who do you suppose matches up higher? Looks as if a toss as much as me

Jay Jaffe: I’d have to consider that one however it will actually be a variety of enjoyable to see that matchup!

KC Ache: Any likelihood they up the pickoff from 2….to not less than 3?  I dont need 10 of them however felt that 2 is just too few.  In any other case liked the brand new guidelines.

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps finally however i’m skeptical we’ll see a change for subsequent yr.

mac: what’s the substantive distinction between a durable-but-unexceptional beginning pitcher racking up a excessive win complete as a result of he performed with an amazing offense his entire profession and brian cashman being a “corridor of fame gm” as a result of he labored with the best funds and most assets within the league yearly?

Jay Jaffe: For higher or worse, flags fly ceaselessly, and Cashman has helped fly a bunch of them. They’re celebrated in an outsized means and rewarded as such in the case of the Corridor, particularly since executives don’t have a variety of different goal measures to go by. The assets and funds give (gave) Cashman benefits — and positively he inherited some wonderful gamers who have been a part of the crew’s success  — however as we’ve seen repeatedly, cash doesn’t assure something, and the playoffs are designed to weaken that hyperlink.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, it’s time for me to roll. Get pleasure from the remainder of the LCSes and we’ll join once more subsequent week!