JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Jered Weaver

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this 12 months’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS will be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule, and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing mission, see right here. All WAR figures consult with the Baseball-Reference model except in any other case indicated.

It’s not straightforward to comply with in an older sibling’s footsteps, notably when that older sibling is a first-round draft decide, a high prospect, and a bona fide main league beginning pitcher. But given a leg up by the advantage of Jeff Weaver’s expertise — not that the 6-foot-7, 210-pound righty wanted it — Jered Weaver superior past huge brother’s accomplishments. In a 13-year profession (2005–17), he made three All-Star groups and completed among the many high 5 within the Cy Younger voting 3 times, serving as a rotation stalwart on 4 Angels groups that made the playoffs. In 2012, he pitched a no-hitter, the tenth in franchise historical past.

Regardless of his dimension, Weaver wasn’t dependent upon energy. His violent, cross-body supply produced deception, and his lengthy limbs resulted in nice extension, serving to his arsenal — a four-seamer that was initially 91–93 mph, a sinker that was 86–90, and a curve, slider, and changeup — play up. Like fellow 2023 poll newcomer Matt Cain, he didn’t strike out a ton of hitters, however he ranked among the many recreation’s finest at suppressing batting common on balls in play through weak contact that included a ton of pop-ups. Sadly, the stress of his supply took his toll on his hips and shoulders, and as soon as his velocity waned into the mid-80s, he was a sitting duck. He threw his final main league pitch greater than 4 months earlier than his thirty fifth birthday.

Jered David Weaver was born on October 4, 1982 in Northridge, California and grew up in suburban Simi Valley, the youthful of two sons of Dave and Gail Weaver. {An electrical} contractor by day, Dave coached each Jeff (b. 1976) and Jered of their youths; he would sit on a bucket exterior of the dugout throughout their video games, signaling pitches. “They had been 8, 9, 10 years outdated, so the alternatives had been restricted to fastball or a not-so-fastball, which we now name a changeup,” wrote the Orange County Register’s Landon Corridor within the wake of the youthful Weaver’s no-hitter in 2012.

“I dwell and die each pitch Jered or Jeff make in my life,” Dave advised Corridor. “I nonetheless assume I’m sitting on the bucket calling their pitches. For me, I’m most likely much more nervous than Jered ever shall be.”

Rising up, Jeff was the extra workmanlike of the 2 brothers, digging ditches for his father’s firm at 15 years outdated, not attempting out for the varsity baseball group at Simi Valley Excessive College till his senior 12 months (he threw fewer than 30 innings), and making the Fresno State group as a walk-on. Jered was the prodigy for whom sports activities got here far more simply. He starred in basketball and baseball in highschool, incomes All-League and first group All-Los Angeles Instances honors within the latter earlier than accepting a scholarship to Lengthy Seashore State. Alongside the way in which, he obtained his first publicity to the majors, spending weeks within the summers with Jeff after he reached the present with the Tigers in 1999. “He was capable of cling across the clubhouse, shag some balls, get somewhat concept what that is all about,” stated Jeff in 2009. The age hole between the 2 was too large for them to be notably shut once they had been below the identical roof, however lastly, the brothers bonded over their devotion to baseball.

Jered put collectively a stellar collegiate profession, going 37–9 with a 2.43 ERA total and 15–1 with a 1.62 ERA and 13.3 strikeouts per 9 in 144 innings as a junior in 2004 and throwing 46 consecutive scoreless innings for Crew USA’s faculty nationwide group the summer time earlier than. His junior 12 months efficiency earned him the Golden Spikes Award because the nation’s high beginner baseball participant; the Dick Howser Trophy because the nationwide collegiate baseball participant of the 12 months; the Roger Clemens Award (now the Nationwide Pitcher of the Yr Award within the wake of Clemens’ scandals); and the Baseball America Faculty Participant of the Yr Award. He was the beginning pitcher on Baseball America’s first-team All-American squad and the publication’s high draft prospect for 2004. Through BA, Weaver’s arsenal on the time consisted of “a 91–95-mph fastball, two variations of a virtually unhittable slider, a complicated really feel for pitching, [and] wonderful command and deception in his unconventional supply.”

Signability considerations precipitated Weaver, a Scott Boras shopper, to drop within the draft as he sought a bundle just like the five-year, $10.5 million main league deal of Mark Prior, the No. 2 decide in 2001. The Angels took Weaver with the twelfth decide (two spots increased than his brother, who was taken by the Tigers in 1998). Negotiations took 51 weeks, proper as much as the ultimate hour earlier than the signing deadline; in the end, he acquired a $4 million bonus, matching that of Prior, however with out the key league portion of the deal.

Weaver break up his first skilled season between Excessive-A Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Arkansas, posting a 3.91 ERA and 11.3 strikeouts per 9 in 76 innings after which capping that with a visit to the Arizona Fall League. He started the 2006 season at Triple-A Salt Lake whereas his brother started the 12 months within the Angels’ rotation, having signed a one-year, $8.3 million free agent deal in February. “I didn’t actually wish to step on his toes,” Jeff advised Sports activities Illustrated’s Richard Hoffer. Jered gave him the inexperienced mild and dominated at Salt Lake to the tune of a 2.22 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per 9 over the course of 11 begins, a stint that was interrupted by his being known as up when reigning AL Cy Younger winner Bartolo Colon hit the injured record with shoulder irritation. On Could 27, Weaver debuted with seven shutout innings in opposition to the Orioles, permitting simply three hits and one stroll and hanging out 5. He made three extra begins and was off to a 4–0 report and 1.37 ERA when the Angels despatched him again to Salt Lake to accommodate Colon’s return.

That gave Jeff, who was on his method to being torched for a 6.29 ERA in 16 begins, a short reprieve, however lower than three weeks later, in what may have rated as essentially the most awkward second of the 400-plus brother acts in main league historical past (or the 100-ish brothers-as-teammates conditions), the Angels designated Weaver the Elder for task to make room for Weaver the Youthful. “After I noticed how nicely he was pitching, and I used to be struggling to get right into a groove, I knew it was a chance,” Jeff advised Hoffer. “It’s robust since you needed to have it final and proceed to have an opportunity to pitch with him, however on the similar time it’s a enterprise.”

Traded to St. Louis, Jeff continued to scuffle to the tune of a 5.15 ERA, however in October, Cardinals Satan Magic took over as he posted a 2.43 ERA and received three of 5 begins, capped by an eight-inning, one-run efficiency within the World Sequence-clinching Recreation 5 in opposition to the Tigers. As for Jered, he picked up the place he left off, permitting simply two runs over his subsequent three turns and operating his report to 9–0 with a 1.95 ERA. He completed 11–2 with a 2.56 mark in 123 innings, good for a team-high 4.7 WAR, however he positioned a distant fifth within the AL Rookie of the 12 months voting, with Justin Verlander profitable.

It was an auspicious starting, however given his underlying .238 BABIP and three.90 FIP, Weaver couldn’t maintain that degree. Settling into the center of the rotation, he did assist the Angels to a few straight AL West titles from 2007 to ’09, averaging 30 begins, 183 innings, a 3.99 ERA (112 ERA+), 4.00 FIP, and a pair of.9 WAR. The final of these seasons was his finest in that span, with a strong 5.8 runs per recreation of offensive assist serving to him to a 16–8 report to go together with his 3.75 ERA (117 ERA+) and three.5 WAR. That season featured an historic occasion: the 2 Weavers squaring off in Anaheim on June 20, turning into the eighth set of brothers to start out in opposition to one another and simply the third within the Wild Card Period:

Jeff, who had resurfaced with the Dodgers after spending all of 2008 in Triple-A, allowed two runs in 5 innings and obtained the win; Jered, who was roughed up for six runs and 10 hits in 5.1 innings, took the loss. The latter had carried a 2.08 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and a 48-inning homerless streak into the sport however was hit for a 5.01 ERA and 4.58 FIP the remainder of the way in which. Nonetheless, it was his finest season since his rookie marketing campaign.

The Angels didn’t make it out of the Division Sequence in 2007 or ’08 in opposition to the Pink Sox; Weaver made a five-inning, two-run begin within the former however was restricted to 2 aid innings within the latter. In 2009, the Angels slayed the Boston dragon, with Weaver handing over a two-hit, one-run effort over 7.1 innings in Recreation 2 of the ALDS. After a five-inning, three-run begin in Recreation 3 of the ALCS in opposition to the Yankees, he made two additional appearances out of the bullpen, however the Bronx Bombers prevailed.

Due to an adjusted arsenal in 2010 (fewer changeups, extra curves, and most significantly an improved sinker in opposition to which opponents batted .220), Weaver boosted his strikeout fee from 19.7% to 25.7%, main the majors with 233 whiffs. He additionally upped his groundball fee from 30.9% to 36% and obtained his dwelling run fee beneath 1.0 for the primary time. His 3.01 ERA was his lowest since his rookie season and ranked fifth within the AL, as did his career-best 3.06 FIP; he additionally set highs with 224.1 innings (third) and 5.2 WAR (fourth). That kicked off a streak of three straight seasons wherein he made the AL All-Star group and acquired Cy Younger assist, putting fifth within the voting in 2010. The Angels, although, took a step backwards, with seasons of 80, 86, and 89 wins, none of which had been adequate to achieve the postseason — the final of these even with the assistance of Mike Trout’s legendary efficiency as a rookie.

Weaver earned the All-Star Recreation begin for the AL in 2011 on the power of an 11–4, 1.96 ERA first half, throwing a scoreless inning highlighted by a strikeout of Carlos Beltrán. He positioned second within the Cy Younger voting (a distant second, as Verlander received unanimously) after ending 18–8 with a 2.41 ERA and 6.9 WAR; these final two figures ranked second to Verlander, the ERA by a single level. Weaver turned the uncommon Boras shopper to signal an extension with out testing free company — 5 years and $85 million, in his case — and went 20–5 with a 2.81 ERA in 2012, main the league in wins regardless of lacking three weeks as a result of decrease again irritation; his ERA positioned third, his 4.3 WAR ninth. This time he completed third within the Cy Younger voting, as David Worth narrowly edged Verlander.

The spotlight of that 2012 season was Weaver’s Could 2 no-hitter in opposition to the Twins, the Angels’ second inside a 10-month span, following Ervin Santana‘s no-hitter in opposition to Cleveland on July 27, 2011. Simply two batters reached base: Chris Parmelee within the second inning after a handed ball on strike three, and Josh Willingham within the seventh through a stroll. A charging, bare-handed pickup of a Jamey Carroll bunt by third baseman Mark Trumbo within the third inning and a operating catch of Alexi Casilla’s fly ball by proper fielder Torii Hunter for the ultimate out each helped protect the no-hitter.

Weaver had come near a no-hitter earlier than, or at the very least a mixed one; on June 28, 2008 in Los Angeles, he threw six hitless innings in opposition to the Dodgers, who nonetheless scored an unearned run through two errors (one in all them his personal, on a Matt Kemp grounder), a stolen base, and a sacrifice fly. Jose Arredondo relieved him and threw two excellent innings, however because the Angels by no means scored, they didn’t get to pitch a ninth inning to make it an official no-hitter. Given the ugly line — three walks and successful batsman to go along with these errors — it was simply as nicely.

Weaver’s 2013 season shortly hit a bump within the street. In his second begin of the 12 months, on April 7, he suffered a non-displaced radial head fracture in his left elbow, sidelining him for seven weeks. He pitched nicely upon returning, ending with a 3.27 ERA and three.7 WAR in 154.1 innings. It was all downhill from there, sadly, as his ERA would rise and his WAR fall in every of the following 4 seasons (a development that had truly begun with 2012). Underlying it was a constant decline in his fastball velocity, which was already comparatively meager to start with; he final averaged 90 mph together with his four-seamer in 2011.

Sturdy offensive assist helped Weaver lead the AL in wins once more in 2014, as he went 18–9, however his 3.59 ERA merely equated to a 100 ERA+. The Angels received 98 video games and the AL West however had been swept by the Royals within the Division Sequence, with Weaver’s seven-inning, two-run effort in Recreation 2 going for naught. The group hasn’t been again to the playoffs since, making this Trout’s solely postseason look up to now.

Weaver’s 2015 (4.64 ERA, 0.5 WAR) and ’16 (5.06 ERA, -0.6 WAR, and a league-leading 37 homers allowed) had been more and more ugly, as his physique simply wouldn’t cooperate. “Hip, shoulder performance… stuff wasn’t firing like I needed to,” he advised the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher in 2018. “I used to be at all times throwing round some type of nagging factor. I used to be on anti-inflammatories and attempting to make it by each 5 days.” Although Weaver managed 31 begins in 2016, his fastball averaged simply 83.8 mph. “There have been scared instances,” he advised Fletcher. “I might have nightmares, earlier than I pitched, of getting hit within the face and stuff. You strive throwing a 3–1 fastball 83 mph to an influence hitter. There have been instances I threw balls hoping they didn’t come again at me. You’ll be able to’t pitch that means. It’s robust.”

Even in 2016, Weaver did have his moments, akin to his three-hit shutout of the A’s on June 19 and a good 3.63 ERA (however a 4.78 FIP) over his ultimate seven begins. Nonetheless, when his contract ended, the Angels didn’t a lot as supply a minor league deal. As a substitute, Weaver signed a $3 million cope with the Padres, however even in sunny southern California, he was in for extra tough sledding. He made 9 begins, and whereas he managed a 3.91 ERA by his first 4, his FIP by no means obtained beneath 6.51. The Padres misplaced all 9 of his begins, and he allowed a number of homers in seven of them.

After one of the best of these turns — a six-inning, one-run effort in opposition to the White Sox on Could 14 in Chicago — Weaver returned to Petco Park and retired simply two of 9 batters in a seven-run outing that raised his ERA to 7.44. Padres followers booed him off the mound, and the group positioned him on the IL with hip irritation (a phantom damage based on Weaver). On June 22, he made a rehab begin for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. “The primary pitch of the sport, I seemed again and noticed 82 (mph, on the scoreboard) and my physique, my coronary heart and thoughts fully shut down,” Weaver advised Fletcher. He allowed three runs in three innings, went again on the IL for one more two months, then conceded it was time to retire. The timing was such that he’s one in all 5 former Angels on this Corridor of Fame poll, together with John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Francisco Rodríguez, and Huston Avenue.

Trying again at his physique of labor, statistcally Weaver had lots in frequent with Cain regardless of a fastball that was about 4 clicks slower. Each had strikeout charges simply 3% above the league common (103 Ok%+), with Weaver higher at stopping walks (79 BB%+ to Cain’s 97) and Cain higher at stopping homers (92 HR%+ to 108), although it ought to be identified that park changes aren’t but constructed into our plus stats, and AT&T Park was much more homer-suppressing than Angels Stadium. Amongst pitchers with at the very least 2,000 innings since 2005 (the 12 months Cain debuted, with Weaver following simply months later), they rank first and second for the very best normalized fly ball fee (Weaver 130 FB%+, Cain 119) and lowest normalized groundball fee (Weaver 75 GB%+, Cain 85).

Weaver owns the Wild Card Period’s highest infield fly ball fee amongst pitchers with at the very least 2,000 innings (13%), with Cain fourth (12.2%); in the meantime, Weaver is third in dwelling runs per fly ball (8.9%) and Cain first (8.2%). The pair are simply behind Clayton Kershaw for the bottom BABIP of the Wild Card Period:

Cain was the extra profitable of the 2 by way of championships and earnings (he signed a six-year, $127.5 million extension in 2012), however Weaver acquired extra recognition within the Cy Younger voting and has the sting each in conventional won-loss information (he’s 52 video games over .500 because of good offensive assist, Cain 14 video games below at 104–118 as a result of spotty assist) and in WAR (34.6 to 29.1). A lot of their different profession numbers are comparable, and whereas it could be an overstatement to say the statistical resemblance is uncanny, at a time when the sport has swung more and more towards energy pitching, each are reminders that there’s a couple of path to success from a serious league mound.