Jaguars-Chiefs NFL Divisional Round: 5 things to watch

It has felt like an extended wait again thus far for followers and members of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.

The primary house playoff recreation since final yr’s collapse within the AFC Championship is lastly right here: the Chiefs are internet hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars for a Saturday kickoff — 3:30 p.m. Arrowhead Time. Kansas Metropolis heads into the weekend favorited by 8.5 factors, based on DraftKings SportsBook.

It’s the largest unfold of the weekend, with the oddsmakers weighing the remainder benefit for Kansas Metropolis towards the fatigue {that a} younger Jaguars crew might be going through of their third consecutive win-or-go-home state of affairs. On prime of that, the forecast requires a chilly, wintery day for the crew from Florida.

I’ve 5 issues to observe within the Divisional spherical showdown:

1. Beginning sizzling out of the blocks

The cardiac Jaguars have come from behind within the fourth quarter to win 4 of their final eight video games. Jaguars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw 4 interceptions to place them in a 27-0 gap final weekend, however he additionally introduced them out of it as soon as he settled in and performed extra comfortably.

That poise within the second half might not wait lengthy to point out up this weekend. There’s no cause for Lawrence to really feel any actual strain in a recreation that many gained’t give him an opportunity in. That would mix with the arrogance gained from a historic postseason comeback to make a full 4 quarters of excessive efficiency from the No. 1 general choose.

This wouldn’t be coming again towards Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill or the mix of former Houston Texans head coach Invoice O’Brien and quarterback Deshaun Watson. This offense is environment friendly sufficient to attain in spurts AND maintain a lead, so the Chiefs can’t fiddle out of the gate as they’ve in lots of postseason video games.

2. Matching up with Jaguars vast receivers

The primary time these two groups matched up, the Jaguars’ offense didn’t have its most spectacular day. The large performs they did have got here from slot receiver Christian Kirk beating slot cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in protection.

In response to PFF, Sneed coated Kirk on 4 targets. Kirk turned these into 54 yards, three first downs, and two touchdowns. The shiftiness and fast change of course was getting the very best of Sneed, who covers finest when he will get arms on and is bodily with a receiver.

That recreation was solely the second within the return of rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie from his Week 1 damage. Within the time since, the Chiefs have trusted McDuffie extra within the slot — pushing Sneed to the perimeter in these cases.

That changeup is ideal for matching up with Jacksonville. Kirk performs over 75% of his snaps within the slot, and McDuffie is a greater match for defending Kirk’s play model. It additionally permits Sneed to match up and probably have the sting over stable, veteran receivers like Marvin Jones Jr. and Zay Jones.

3. A scrambling Mahomes

In Week 10, the Jaguars used their entrance to create strain with out counting on the blitz. The unit solely blitzed Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice.

It’s what they are going to probably wish to do once more — belief that the playmakers they’ve of their entrance can create sufficient havoc to make it tough to choose aside the protection within the again finish. There have been some cluttered pockets within the first matchup, however Mahomes negated them by scrambling successfully. He earned 40 yards on 5 scrambles, and that has turn into a development of his down the stretch of this yr.

Mahomes may be very environment friendly together with his decision-making to scramble, confirmed by the truth that he has not scrambled right into a sack for the reason that AFC Championship in 2021 — two years in the past!

That talent can be essential towards Jacksonville, particularly on apparent passing downs when the Jaguars ship 4 edge-rushing varieties without delay. Scrambling can’t solely negate that strain however relieve Mahomes from forcing a throw that isn’t there towards seven in protection.

4. Sack look ahead to Chris Jones

In Week 10, Chris Jones was in on two sacks towards Jacksonville — and he’d actually, actually prefer to get one other one this time.

It might be Jones’ first sack of his NFL playoff profession. In these 12 profession playoff video games, he has 22 tackles, two tackles for loss, 9 passes defended, 4 hits on the quarterback… however no sacks. He’s uninterested in listening to about it from a author like me.

He has a very good matchup to take action. The Jaguars’ offensive line ranked thirty first in ESPN’s crew move block win charge this season. They’ve allowed a sack to a defensive sort out in every of their final two video games. Look ahead to Jones to lastly get his postseason takedown.

5. Playoff-debut jitters

The Chiefs can be asking so much from gamers which might be making their NFL postseason debut on Saturday. Rookies like McDuffie, defensive finish George Karlaftis, operating again Isiah Pacheco, and cornerback Jaylen Watson are all in key positions whereas additionally coping with the added strain of the playoffs.

On prime of that, an X-factor playmaker in vast receiver Kadarius Toney can be on the postseason stage for the primary time in his profession.

It provides as much as the Chiefs counting on plenty of postseason inexperience to succeed:

They’ll want strain from the sting, and Karlaftis has three extra sacks than the veteran edge rushers Carlos Dunlap and Frank Clark mixed since Week 12.
Pacheco has 98 extra carries than another Chiefs’ operating again this season. He has turn into the workhorse again that the crew leans on however has additionally fumbled 4 occasions.
Watson was out and in of the beginning lineup all season earlier than solidifying himself because the third cornerback over the past quarter of the common season. The seventh-round rookie can be up towards veterans on the surface.
With the information that vast receiver Mecole Hardman gained’t play, Toney will play a really key position within the misdirection side of the Chiefs’ offense; he may also be important within the pink zone.