Mike Evans is among the NFL’s high wideouts of the previous decade. However he’ll face maybe the hardest problem of his profession in 2023. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making an attempt to stay aggressive within the post-Tom Brady period, can Evans stay a reliable top-20 fantasy soccer WR?
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Mike Evans’ Latest Seasons
When his profession ends, Evans is likely to be listed among the many all-time best extensive receivers. He’s presently No. 45 in receiving yards, due to a seemingly inconceivable 9 consecutive 1,000+ yard campaigns to start his profession. If he performs three extra seasons and nets merely 900 yards per yr, he’d probably be on the highest 20 all-time listing and inside simple putting distance of the highest 12.
That is the magic of the extremely constant Evans, who’s missed a median of just one sport per yr. In case you lookup “dependability” within the dictionary, you received’t see his image. But when sometime you do, you’ll know why.
To be clear, Evans additionally has benefitted by taking part in a number of seasons in virtually comically pass-happy offenses. The Bucs led the league in cross makes an attempt in every of the previous two seasons, they usually’ve been top-six each different yr since 2017.
And what occurred the yr earlier than that, when Tampa Bay was merely a “middling” passing workforce? Evans led the league with 173 targets, leading to an astronomical 30% workforce goal share. No different Buc loved half his targets or half his receiving yards.
Mike Evans’ 2023 Expectations
So in recent times, Evans has thrived in an atmosphere the place passes got here early and infrequently. Final yr, for instance, the median variety of workforce throws was roughly 33.6 per sport. Tampa Bay averaged 44.2. That’s not only a vital distinction. That’s earth-shattering.
With Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask on the helm this season, we must always anticipate a large decline in passing quantity, in addition to productiveness. Even along with his expertise waning, Brady may feed a number of receivers per sport. But it surely stays to be seen if Mayfield or Trask can constantly feed even one.
Evans might want to work more durable to get his tenth straight 1,000+ yard season. So long as he stays wholesome, it’s doable. But it surely’s no higher than a 50/50 proposition on a workforce that may not surpass 3,500 passing yards.
If this workforce had cleaned home within the offseason, then maybe Evans may have returned to his high-target-share roots. As an alternative, he nonetheless should cope with star Chris Godwin, the serviceable Russell Gage, and ascending tight finish Cade Otton.
Fortuitously, there’s not a lot depth past that “huge 4.” Sixth-round rookie Trey Palmer’s pace would possibly end in sporadic utilization. However the excellent news for managers drafting Evans is that they don’t have to fret a few younger sizzling shot stepping up and pushing for 3 or 4 appears to be like per week.
So let’s do some simple arithmetic. If Tampa throws 600 occasions this season — nonetheless a reasonably excessive quantity by NFL requirements — then it could mark a drop-off of 9 makes an attempt per sport in comparison with final yr. If Evans enjoys the identical goal share, then it could equate to a decline of 26 targets if he as soon as once more performs 15 video games. At 17 video games, maybe he may push for a decline of solely about 10 targets.
Subsequent, take into account a possible drop in effectivity. Once more, Mayfield and Trask should not on Brady’s stage. That doesn’t have to be spelled out. But it’s key to understanding Evans’ lower-than-usual ceiling.
Final season, the general WR20 was Michael Pittman Jr., who compiled a 99-925-4 receiving line because the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in a weak passing assault. Teammate Parris Campbell was next-best on the workforce because the WR48.
It’s exhausting to think about this yr’s Bucs supporting two top-20 WRs and even two top-30 WRs. The youthful Godwin has been a much more efficient cross catcher over time and has averaged extra targets per sport in every of the final three seasons. There’s probability that Godwin would be the main fantasy scorer on this workforce.
Consequently, Evans is on the skin wanting in at one other high-impact marketing campaign. He ought to end within the high 30. However assuming this passing assault returns to pre-2017 ranges, Evans is now not a certifiable weekly fantasy starter and shouldn’t be counted on to provide top-20 numbers.
