This thought experiment explores the hypothetical situation of a Jimmy Butler commerce, analyzing its potential on-court advantages, monetary ramifications, and what it might sign for the Celtics’ future decision-making.
Jimmy Butler to the Celtics might have occurred earlier than — twice, really.
First, again at his draft in 2011, then President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge was near choosing him however ended up with JaJuan Johnson after a commerce with the Nets. Just a few years later, Ainge might have traded for Jimmy Butler utilizing the draft picks that become Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. And but, Jimmy Butler to the Celtics by no means occurred… to this point.
As you may need heard, Jimmy Butler has reportedly requested to be traded out of Miami, looking for a spot to compete for a title. And what higher place for that than the Boston Celtics? From his perspective, this may seem like the proper alternative.
You could be questioning—how and extra importantly why might the Celtics commerce for Butler, and whether or not it is sensible to take a bet on the 35-year-old ahead. Nicely, stroll with me into this parallel universe (that might be a not too far actuality).
Photograph by Maddie Meyer/Getty Pictures
The how
The Celtics are within the second apron, so they can’t ship a number of gamers in a commerce to match salaries and tackle extra wage past what’s already on their books. This may seemingly imply a simple swap between Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler, probably with draft picks concerned, presumably going from the Warmth to the Celtics. As we communicate, the Warmth have solely two picks to ship (2030 and 2031 first spherical) however they may transfer issues round to construct a greater supply.
Why it’d make sense on the courtroom
What are the Celtics fighting this season?
Producing free throws (twenty first within the league)
Attending to the rim (twenty eighth within the league)
Forcing turnovers (twenty third within the league)
Creating transition alternatives (twenty fifth within the league)
What’s Jimmy Butler good at? Nicely, the entire above.
Offensively, he’s laborious to cease from attending to the rim. This yr, half of his shot makes an attempt have come on the rim, the place he converts at a 70% fee—regardless of Miami’s common spacing. Think about the injury Butler might do with the elite spacing offered by the Celtics.
He’s additionally an absolute menace on the subject of drawing fouls. He generates capturing fouls on 23% of his makes an attempt—higher than Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo. This alone might increase the Celtics’ offense considerably when their exterior photographs aren’t falling. For context, Butler averages 1.31 factors per shot try, in comparison with 1.10 for Jaylen Brown.
Defensively, the Celtics have struggled to create turnovers and transition alternatives. Jimmy Butler’s elite anticipation and talent to disrupt passing lanes could be a major increase. Traditionally, he has excelled at pressuring ball handlers and forcing steals.
In transition, whereas the Celtics would miss Jaylen Brown’s ending capability, Butler’s playmaking would compensate. Mathematically, based mostly on on-court impression, Butler might assist remodel lots of the Celtics’ present weaknesses into strengths.
Nevertheless, the Celtics could be lacking Jaylen Brown point-of-attack protection. This commerce would enhance the off-ball protection and may result in extra transition, however the Celtics will likely be out of their go-to-guy to cease the opponents celebrity. Would Jimmy Butler have the ability to decelerate Luka Doncic as a lot as Jaylen Brown did over the past NBA Finals? I doubt it.
Nevertheless, Jrue Vacation or Jayson Tatum might take over the celebrity project, whereas Jimmy Butler would stay off-ball, prepared to leap on passes.
As for issues about match, Butler has a smaller utilization fee than Brown, and his driving and post-up recreation would thrive throughout the Celtics’ spacing. He wouldn’t clog their offense or disrupt the stream.
And let’s not neglect Jaylen Brown’s remark that the Celtics “hunt seals” on offense. Jimmy Butler is an elite hunter.
Why it’d make monetary sense
The Celtics’ monetary state of affairs is complicated. They’re within the second apron and are projected to stay there subsequent season. Past the same old penalties, staying within the second apron for 3 years inside a five-year span has vital penalties: “if groups stay within the second apron for any three years in a five-year interval, their upcoming first-round draft choose is routinely moved to the tip of the primary spherical.”
The Celtics at present have 5 gamers incomes over $30 million yearly for the subsequent two years. Shifting Jrue Vacation’s contract could be troublesome, Derrick White’s deal is simply too worthwhile to commerce, and Kristaps Porziņģis gives essential spacing and rim safety—plus his latest damage diminishes his commerce worth. In some unspecified time in the future, the Celtics might face a alternative between their two franchise stars.
Buying and selling for Jimmy Butler might be an early (and presumably untimely) manner out. Whereas Butler’s participant choice looms, his expiring contract might present the Celtics with monetary flexibility within the close to future—all whereas preserving them in competition.
Nevertheless, what is going to occur to Jimmy Butler’s subsequent contract? Will he need out of the Celtics? Will he ask an excessive amount of — making it not possible for the Celtics to maintain him completely happy? Jimmy Butler is already 35 years previous, his finest years are up to now, whereas Jaylen Brown peak is but to return.
Will this gamble of Jimmy Butler convey the Celtics extra finance flexibility — or will they be caught in a extra problematic state of affairs, with a participant that not too long ago appeared not possible to maintain completely happy.
What in regards to the intangibles?
Neglect the courtroom and the finance for a second… how would the Celtics gamers and training workers react to reminiscent of tsunamis within the locker room? The Celtics present success has been construct round Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum — would this even work with one of many Jay’s out?
On prime of Jaylen’s departure, would the Celtics have the ability to combine Jimmy Butler after such a monumental transfer? Jimmy has been an enemy for the final years. How might the Celtics entrance workplace commerce for him in opposition to one among their brothers?
There are clear doubts that Jimmy Butler would match nicely with a gaggle that simply noticed its Finals MVP and longest-tenured participant traded for him. And it’s uncertain that Brad Stevens would break aside the group he spent the offseason solidifying.
Nevertheless, a possible Butler commerce serves as a reminder that troublesome choices are on the horizon. Keep in mind that, on prime of the overloaded payroll, the Boston Celtics are at present on the market. With this commerce, the present possession might make the monetary state of affairs extra interesting for potential consumers.
Whereas such a earth-shattering deal might not make sense this season, it might be a template for what’s to return.
