This all began as a result of I hate shedding. Particularly to Ben Lindbergh.
Simply earlier than the season began, I took half within the annual Successfully Wild preseason predictions recreation, wherein Meg Rowley, the Bens (Lindbergh and Clemens), and I every made 10 daring predictions concerning the 2024 marketing campaign. The listeners voted on which of them they thought would come true, and we’d be awarded factors accordingly — the extra outlandish the prediction, the higher the reward if it occurred.
One in every of my 10 predictions was that Spencer Strider would strike out 300 batters in 2024. As my predictions go, this one felt fairly conservative. Strider had struck out an absurd (and league-leading) 281 batters in solely 186 2/3 innings final season. I attended Strider’s Opening Day begin wherein he debuted a brand new breaking ball and punched out eight Phillies in simply 5 innings. I used to be feeling good.
Then Strider’s elbow began barking in his subsequent begin, and by mid-April it was introduced that he’d want Tommy John surgical procedure and would take no additional half within the 2024 season. Scorekeeper Chris Hanel marked that prediction down as incorrect, and took 42 factors from my rating.
Virtually, he was appropriate to take action. Even at 13.5 Ok/9, Strider would want to throw at the very least 200 innings to achieve 300 strikeouts, so lacking even two or three begins would seemingly render my prediction incorrect. Conventional Tommy John takes a yr to return again from at an absolute minimal, and even the newfangled inside brace surgical procedure would most likely maintain Strider out of motion into the 2025 common season.
However I bristled at shedding a prediction so quickly. In spite of everything, wasn’t it theoretically doable — theoretically — to line up a recreation in such an ideal style as to permit a pitcher to strike out 300 batters in a single day?
I imply, virtually, no. Fashionable starters get to double-digit strikeouts pretty routinely, however something greater than about 13 punchouts in a recreation continues to be noteworthy sufficient to guide MLB.com the following day. The season excessive throughout MLB this yr is 15, by Blake Snell. Strider’s profession excessive is 16, set in September 2022. There have been solely 16 video games of 19 or extra strikeouts in all of main league historical past, and just one up to now 20 years. And honest sufficient. There are solely 27 outs in a recreation, proper?
Incorrect. The all-time single-game strikeout report stands at 21, set by Washington Senators righty Tom Cheney in 1962. However he wanted to throw 16 innings to do it.
Keep in mind, a baseball recreation can theoretically go on ceaselessly.
The limiting issue now could be now not the variety of out there outs, however the variety of strikes the hypothetical Strider might throw earlier than he wanted to return beneath the knife. Cheney’s 21 strikeouts required 63 strikes — 300 strikeouts would require, at minimal, 900 strikes.
Not consecutively, after all, however every pitch comes with a value in fatigue — a value that compounds over time. We don’t have pitch counts relationship again to the 1800s or something, however in response to Baseball Reference, the report for many strikes in a serious league recreation is 128, shared by Sandy Koufax and Herm Wehmeier. In different phrases, 14% of the way in which is the closest that anyone has made it to throwing 900 strikes in a recreation, that was so way back ballplayers had names like “Herm Wehmeier.” The one starter to throw 100 strikes in a recreation within the twenty first Century is Randy Johnson.
So among the finest and most sturdy starters of all time received inside 800 strikes of the objective — a number of occasions, in reality, however most just lately 22 years in the past. We’re clearly coping with idea right here. So theoretically, what’s the higher restrict pitch rely at recreation power?
“For relievers, it could most likely be 70, 75 pitches, simply because we haven’t labored that load,” mentioned Phillies righty Orion Kerkering. “However starters, you most likely get 130, 140 earlier than it’s like, ‘All proper, I’m getting drained.’ ” Kerkering guesses essentially the most he’s ever thrown in a recreation was about 110 pitches, again in faculty, when he was a beginning pitcher.
Kerkering’s teammate, Tanner Banks, says he threw 151 pitches in a highschool recreation as soon as, although his fastball was within the low 80s on the time. “My highschool coach would say this didn’t occur, however I’ve the pitch chart from the sport,” Banks mentioned.
Rangers righty Grant Anderson received as much as about 125 pitches in a highschool recreation as soon as. “That may be, lifetime-wise, by far the very best,” he mentioned. “However now in Texas, they’ve received a rule, the place you might have your variety of pitches capped. Like, they will’t go previous 80 or one thing like that.”
I stored anticipating to bump right into a pitcher who had some ridiculous 300-pitch outing again in faculty or highschool, however I didn’t notice how far sooner or later we’re. The pitch rely dialogue has been occurring so long as guys like Kerkering, Banks, and Anderson have been alive. The actually dangerous pitcher-abuse instances in faculty are largely 10 or 15 years up to now by this level. Nearly all the pitchers I talked to have personally thrown 110 or 120 pitches in a recreation and determine they might get to someplace round 150 in the event that they completely needed to, however something past that’s science fiction.
“I believe your arm fatigue would simply get fairly extreme,” mentioned Nationals righty Jacob Barnes. “When you begin getting deeper, I believe not solely your arm, however your complete physique fatigues. So even in case you’re lobbing it, simply the fixed movement and attempting to repeat that may be laborious.”
To say nothing of the truth that pitchers aren’t merely taught to get the ball over the plate, as a result of a get-me-over pitch ceaselessly finally ends up as a memento.
“The way in which the sport’s going with stuff basically, effort must be by way of the roof, which takes away the command,” mentioned Phillies left-hander Matt Strahm. “You’ll be able to’t pitch at 91 with a little bit little bit of motion anymore. You may get away with 91 when you might have max effort due to the deception it creates… Robert Inventory would at all times inform me in San Diego, ‘You could possibly throw loads tougher, since you throw too many strikes.’ And I at all times giggled at that, as a result of he’s not fallacious, however I’m right here as a result of I throw strikes. So it’s that double-edged sword of which [command or stuff] you wish to take.”
I requested Strahm if it’s doable to pitch successfully at diminished effort so as and last more into video games.
“I don’t know. I imply, that is the most effective lower than 1% of the world competing on the highest stage each evening,” he mentioned. “I nonetheless don’t purchase it when starters are like, ‘Yeah, I’m saving a little bit for the second and third time by way of.’ I name the BS button proper there. You’re competing, so that you’re most likely giving as near full effort as you possibly can on each pitch.”
So clearly, with a dwell batter, 300 strikeouts in a day is inconceivable. However what if situations had been good, and all of the pitcher needed to do was throw the ball over the plate?
This could possibly be achieved with an settlement between the 2 groups: The hypothetical Strider’s opponents wouldn’t swing, and his teammates would rating as many or as few runs as vital — zero, until Strider began hitting or strolling batters — to maintain the sport going for at the very least 100 innings.
How wouldn’t it change issues if the pitcher knew the hitter wasn’t going to swing? If the one problem was to hit the strike zone?
Lobbing the ball to the catcher continues to be a problem. Within the 10 seasons of the Statcast Period, there have been 2,606 tracked eephus pitches in recreation motion, of which simply 36.5% have been strikes. And whereas nearly all of these pitches have come from place gamers in mop-up responsibility, the true pitchers hit the zone solely 38.9% of the time themselves. (This season, 49.6% of complete pitches have been within the strike zone.)
Even so, an eephus pitch in a recreation continues to be thrown with a hitter in thoughts. If it was a certainty that the hitter wouldn’t swing, what number of strikes might a pitcher throw?
“That’s what I’m going by way of in my head proper now,” mentioned Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison. “Even lobbing it over, you possibly can miss. So I believe I’d have a number of walks sprinkled in there.”
However might he nonetheless throw sufficient strikes to strike out 300 batters? Even when it took one thing like 1,100 complete pitches?
“If that’s what it takes, I might do it,” Harrison mentioned. “I’d should get again to my soft-toss days… Once I was a child, I threw BP ceaselessly to my little brother.”
“I’m going to stroll a man each infrequently,” mentioned Rockies prospect Brody Brecht. “Hopefully, I can get by way of a number of earlier than I do this. I don’t know. I imply, 900 pitches… If you realize they’re not swinging, I imply, shoot, you possibly can throw it underhand.”
And there’s the second breakthrough: The 900 strikes required to get to 300 strikeouts in a day must be authorized pitches, however they wouldn’t should resemble something like a typical main league fastball.
“I keep in mind coaching within the offseason years in the past, and I’d do a number of pitching classes,” Banks mentioned. “I’d do my throwing, which ended up being 100, perhaps 150 throws in a day. Then I’d go and do three or 4 pitching classes that I might catch. So I’d heat up with them, then I’d catch their bullpens — it was perhaps 400 throws tops, but it surely was lobs. I believe with a mix of all the kinds of throwing you possibly can get it finished. It wouldn’t be fairly, and also you’d undoubtedly be sore, however I believe you possibly can get it finished.”
It’s been settled science for many years that a part of what makes pitching so harmful to the physique is the overhand throwing movement. Pitching underhand is much extra pure and fewer irritating, which is why softball pitchers can rack up monumental pitch counts. Final season, 22 Division I softball pitchers threw 200 or extra innings. The nationwide chief, Florida freshman Keagan Rothrock, appeared in 50 of the Gators’ 69 video games and threw 262 innings. The final huge league pitcher to throw that many innings in a season, which is greater than twice as lengthy, was Roy Halladay in 2003.
Now, softball makes use of an even bigger ball, a shorter distance between the rubber and the plate, and a flat pitching circle as an alternative of a mound. It’s, to paraphrase Ted Stryker, a completely totally different form of pitching altogether.
However the pitchers I talked to received extra bullish on the thought of a 900-strike day as soon as they thought-about throwing underhand as an choice. I’m skeptical that even skilled baseball gamers might hit the zone reliably throwing underhand, however maybe I’m underestimating their athletic prowess.
Strahm, who mentioned, “My shoulder hurts simply occupied with” throwing 900 pitches at full effort, was completely sure he might full the duty underhand.
“Cornhole’s my shit,” Strahm defined.
The ultimate breakthrough on this puzzle got here courtesy of Mitch White, who’s at present pitching within the Brewers’ farm system. White estimated that he had a most of 150 to 180 pitches in him beneath regular situations, but when he had been allowed to lob the ball up there with out concern of it getting hit, he had a shot on the legendary 300-strikeout day.
“Yeah, I might do it,” White mentioned. “However I really feel like certainly one of our BP throwers would most likely be higher for it. They’re used to throwing that a lot.”
I felt silly for not having considered that myself. If you happen to want somebody to strike out 300 batters in six months, Strider is a perfect selection. However throwing 900 strikes in a single 100-inning recreation requires a special form of pitcher.
Batting observe pitchers practice to not miss bats, however to place the ball within the zone: Reliably, repeatably, and in excessive quantity.
One title instantly sprung to thoughts: Dave Jauss. You may not know the title, however you’ve undoubtedly seen his work.
Jauss, 67, has labored in baseball for greater than 40 years, in a wide range of entrance workplace, teaching, and managerial roles in faculty, the minor and main leagues, and LIDOM. To provide a way of his expertise, I initially miscounted the variety of organizations Jauss has labored for as a result of he’s been with each the Montreal Expos and Washington Nationals.
In 2021, Jauss — then the Mets’ bench coach — was Pete Alonso’s pitcher for Alonso’s second House Run Derby title. Having watched Kris Bryant get waxed within the 2015 Derby as his dad struggled to search out the zone, I’ve lengthy believed that profitable a house run-hitting contest is as a lot an accomplishment for the pitcher as it’s the hitter. Jauss stridently disagreed after I put the proposition to him — generally essentially the most achieved masters of a craft are essentially the most humble — but when there have been a Corridor of Fame for batting observe pitchers, he’d be in it.
“I get guys coming to see me, and so they don’t know I’m throwing,” Jauss mentioned. “And so they see me throw my first pitch and so they say, ‘Oh, that’s Jauss!’ as a result of my throwing mechanics are actually good.”
Jauss is without doubt one of the pitchers for MLB’s House Run Derby X, a worldwide exhibition tour that includes baseball and softball stars; he’s been throwing for therefore lengthy that he’s received it all the way down to a science. By day, Jauss is a particular assistant in Washington’s entrance workplace, however after I reached out to the Nats to arrange this interview, I used to be cautioned that he may not get again to me instantly, as a result of he was busy throwing batting observe to the Double-A Harrisburg Senators that afternoon.
Not desirous to beat across the bush, I got here proper out and requested if a 300-strikeout day was doable, and Jauss instantly mentioned sure, if the hitters weren’t swinging. The truth is, he mentioned he’d really thrown a 100-inning recreation of kinds earlier in his profession.
“It was a fundraiser after I was teaching in faculty again in 1986 or 1987, and I threw the 100-inning recreation for each groups,” Jauss mentioned. The catch: The rely began 1-2 to every batter. “I threw for perhaps two hours and quarter-hour. It undoubtedly wasn’t 900 pitches. I throw, on a standard BP, most likely about 10 to 12 pitches a minute. So if that’s 12 per minute, for an hour, that’s 720 pitches.”
At a fee of 1 pitch each 5 seconds, it takes 75 minutes to throw 900 pitches. Accounting for the occasional misfire, and a barely much less grueling tempo — say one pitch each six seconds as an alternative of 5 — that session stretches out to one thing nearer to 90 minutes. Which appears like plenty of throwing to me, even at lower than most effort. That’d be a protracted session, in response to Jauss, however doable for any skilled batting observe pitcher.
So, by altering the context from an precise recreation to a BP session, the 900-strike problem goes from inconceivable to doable in lower than an hour and a half. Form of.
Jauss, like a softball pitcher, doesn’t throw from a serious league mound. He throws from a ramp, behind a display screen, arrange between 45 and 52 ft from the plate. And he says the rationale he can throw so many pitches, precisely, is as a result of he’s honed his supply for that particular process.
“I don’t should throw 60 ft, 6 inches. I don’t should throw 120 ft from the opening, or 260 ft from proper area,” he mentioned. “I at all times take it as a cross-seam [fastball] across the horseshoe and on the laces. I can spin the ball proper, I really feel proper on my fingers, and so these issues actually assist the BP man. Whereas all these different issues, for the pitcher, goes so as to add a complete lot extra stress.”
Jauss talked about that not having to manage the working recreation or area their place — no one on the opposite crew is swinging, in spite of everything — would assist any pitcher work quicker and longer with out getting drained. However one facet of this experiment we will’t change is the literal guidelines of the sport. Jauss may be capable of throw 700 strikes an hour, however he’d solely be capable of throw 9 at a time earlier than he’d have to sit down down and anticipate the opposite half of the inning to play out.
Of the pitchers I talked to, Barnes was most obsessed with happening the rabbit gap and attempting to think about each think about whether or not a 300-strikeout day was doable. And the inevitability of fatigue-induced mechanical collapse was the factor that gave him critical doubts.
“It could take a lot of the day, I might say, so as to have the ability to get that many strikes,” Barnes mentioned. “You’d most likely should take a pair 10-minute, 15-minute breaks, to attempt to reset and get again on the market.”
Inning breaks would afford the pitcher some relaxation, however not 10 or quarter-hour beneath the boundaries of this experiment. Standard knowledge says {that a} longer break between pitches permits the pitcher to recuperate, however inside this context, Jauss thinks slowing down and resting between innings would do extra hurt than good.
“It could mess together with your rhythm,” Jauss mentioned. “Your means to throw each 5 or 6 seconds is the rationale it really works.”
Jauss introduced up a current House Run Derby X journey to Durham, North Carolina, the place he needed to throw a number of rounds of the competitors at intervals of between one and three hours.
“I received up like 4 occasions over seven hours,” Jauss mentioned. “I used to be effective throwing the ultimate, however I awoke on Sunday morning and my spouse goes, ‘Hey, pay attention, you actually appear like you’re 67.’ I felt about 87. However it was the ups and downs and the time in between. So our rhythm is without doubt one of the issues that basically helps. That further 10 seconds [between pitches] wouldn’t assist.”
Jauss mentioned that if he needed to throw that many pitches from a 60-foot, 6-inch mound, he might do it, “so long as it was a BP.”
However even the pseudo-game state of affairs this hypothetical calls for comes with variables.
“The mound slope makes it more durable in your physique — not your arm, however the physique,” Jauss mentioned. He gleefully recounted watching Kevin Brown throw a 70-pitch bullpen within the basement of Camden Yards throughout a rain delay in lower than 10 minutes with out even respiratory closely, a feat Jauss attributes to Brown’s unimaginable health and conditioning. However as soon as the physique will get drained, the arm follows.
“Despite the fact that you’re not going to full effort, it’s nonetheless attempting to repeat the identical factor consistently all through the sport,” Barnes mentioned. “I believe that may be the place the difficulty is — when your legs begin getting drained. Does your arm catch up? It’d be a little bit tougher than lots of people assume.”
Each pitcher I talked to appeared to at the very least discover the query amusing, I believe partly as a result of pitchers have a tendency to like nerding about their craft, and partly as a result of everybody likes to ponder a daft hypothetical. However there was additionally an undercurrent of “I guess you possibly can’t do that” inherent within the query, and that raises the aggressive hackles of an athlete and conjures up them to guess that they might throw six weeks’ value of strikes in a day. No person ever ate 50 eggs, and so forth.
“I used to be there in Pittsburgh when Joe Musgrove began the sport with 21 straight strikes,” Jauss mentioned. “Gamers can do greater than they assume after they don’t should maintain a working recreation, change their movement, change their timing, their supply.”
The one option to discover out for certain is to strive.
“It’d be attention-grabbing if somebody really would do it,” Barnes mentioned. “I’m curious what route they’d go together with it, like in the event that they’d attempt to do it all of sudden, or take breaks, and the way profitable they’re at really attending to [900 strikes].”
Maybe he’d wish to be the one to strive, I instructed.
Barnes laughed and walked off. I suppose I’m not getting these factors again in spite of everything.
