As Liverpool’s director of analysis for over a decade, Ian Graham was a key particular person within the background because the Reds gained each trophy doable below Jurgen Klopp.
Graham and his crew of information analysts performed a task within the appointment of Klopp, plus key signings like Sadio Mane, Mo Salah, Andy Robertson, Joel Matip and lots extra.
Initially appointed by Michael Edwards in 2012 after they’d labored collectively at Tottenham, Graham left Liverpool in 2023 and arrange an analytics consultancy agency, Ludonautics, with Edwards.
Edwards, in fact, has now returned as Fenway Sports activities Group’s ‘chief govt of soccer’ and it’s attention-grabbing to study that regardless of the media notion of Edwards as being the ‘knowledge man’ at Liverpool, the previous Portsmouth participant was actually initially sceptical of Graham’s data-led method.
“Michael had that blend of his soccer background, plus he’s a sensible man,” explains Graham in an unique chat with This Is Anfield the place we focus on the early years below Brendan Rodgers and the so-called ‘switch committee’ – which Graham was an “unofficial” member of, by way of to the signings that reworked the membership below Klopp, plus those that bought away.
“[Edwards] understood our method and the type of numbers we have been arising with like possession worth, aim likelihood, and so forth. He intuitively understood it. So he took our numbers as like a benchmark.”
We communicate to Graham forward of the launch of his new e book, sharing tales from his time at Anfield but in addition on the broader knowledge and analytics method in soccer. It’s, to say the least, an attention-grabbing learn.
Nevertheless, Graham is fast to level out “the e book title, ‘The way to Win the Premier League‘ is just a little bit tongue in cheek! I hope I make it clear within the e book that it wasn’t solely the info.
“The information doesn’t make any distinction in any respect until you’ve bought an ideal supervisor, an ideal sporting director, an ideal scouting division to go and do the entire different work that’s completely crucial for fulfillment.”
“A disastrous begin below Rodgers…”
Within the early years, that recipe for fulfillment was not there. The membership’s supervisor was not aligned with the remainder of the recruitment crew.
Being appointed to his function on the very day that Damien Comolli left the membership, Graham’s first summer season was working alongside Brendan Rodgers – who had determined he didn’t precisely need the enter of the info and analytics.
In his e book, Graham particulars how Rodgers pushed to signal gamers like Joe Allen and Fabio Borini – when the analysts had prompt Daniel Sturridge as a substitute (a participant the membership went on to signal six months later).
Rodgers additionally insisted on signing Christian Benteke, regardless of Graham virtually “begging” FSG to not. Rodgers was so obsessive about the Aston Villa striker he fought to signal him for 3 consecutive summers, twice Graham was profitable in persuading the membership to not signal the Belgian.
“Benteke was the the epitome of that form of misunderstanding of favor,” explains Graham, whose work consists of profiling and categorising gamers in response to the kind of participant they’re – not all centre-forwards are the identical!
“Benteke in the fitting system, in a system that performs to his strengths, is a really efficient striker. Our drawback was Liverpool didn’t play that system.
“When each Brendan and I joined the membership, Brendan’s primary precedence was to eliminate Andy Carroll – one participant that we’d had up to now who did play in that model.”
Diego Costa was the striker Graham would have most popular and is without doubt one of the ‘ones that bought away’ when there was an opportunity to accumulate him from Atletico Madrid in the summertime of 2013.
“Are you able to think about the ahead line of Luis Suarez and Diego Costa? I’m undecided Liverpool can be anybody’s second crew with that pair of centre forwards!”
How Coutinho was signed… as a substitute of Tom Ince!
We additionally, nearly fairly comically, learn the way Rodgers pushed for the signing of Thomas Ince, however solely Blackpool altering the phrases of the deal meant that Philippe Coutinho was signed as a substitute.
“Spurs had performed towards Inter when each me and Michael [Edwards] have been working at Spurs and Michael thought Coutinho was the very best participant for Inter, and it was an Inter facet that had Wesley Schneider and Samuel Eto’o in order that’s fairly good for a 20-year-old, small Brazilian man to be in contrast favourably to these superstars.”
Normally Liverpool search to signal gamers with sure thresholds for knowledge evaluation, which may rely upon not simply the quantity of information but in addition the standard of the info, resembling whether or not the info consists of off the ball actions.
“The information seemed good,” says Graham of Coutinho “[but] it was a low variety of minutes. The extra proof we’ve bought about gamers, the higher; the extra minutes, the higher. So it was a case of ‘this participant appears actually good nevertheless it’s not fairly the minutes to say he’s assured to make a distinction to Liverpool’. And that’s the place scouting is available in.
“Our scouting crew was additionally closely in favour of signing Coutinho. Barry (Hunter, chief scout) particularly; he loves the Brazilian playmaker as a lot as I do and as a lot as Brendan does.
“It actually confirmed what may occur if we have been all on the identical web page, if all of us engaged in a means of looking for the very best gamers that all of us agree are the very best gamers for the membership.”
Coutinho’s story was a uncommon one below Rodgers, although, so it was a brand new alternative when the previous Swansea boss was sacked in 2015.
Jurgen arrives – he’s not keen about statistics!
Graham was instructed by FSG that Rodgers can be leaving and his crew labored on analysing the potential candidates for the subsequent Liverpool supervisor.
Their evaluation was clear: Klopp’s disappointing last season at Dortmund was not reflective of the info and this message was delivered to FSG – and later to Klopp in Graham’s first assembly with the German.
“I don’t prefer to see anybody get the sack, however the course of simply wasn’t working at Liverpool,” says Graham. “So it was an opportunity to see was the method going to work?
“It meant the stress was on, the truth that Fenway had determined to maintain the remainder of the switch committee on the books and make the change within the supervisor function. However then that stress turns into quite a bit much less when Klopp’s obtainable to usher in as supervisor.
“From Jurgen, his standpoint, it was simply as marketed as an environment friendly method of figuring out gamers. He was promised he may have the ultimate say on which gamers arrive, which gamers left, which is all he wished.”
A type of gamers that arrived was Salah, with Klopp later admitting that Edwards and chief scouts Dave Fallows and Barry Hunter have been “actually in my ear and have been on it: ‘Come on, come on, Mo Salah, he’s the answer!”
“When you might have 20 gamers on the desk, completely different gamers, it’s tough to make an early resolution,” stated Klopp. “However all of us have been satisfied about it so may make the early resolution so we may actually get him.”
Salah’s signing was one which completely aligned the evaluation and the scouting. Graham and his crew although hardly ever interacted with Klopp on switch discussions, that was left to Edwards, who would sit with Klopp and watch movies of switch targets.
“Once we went all the way down to a shortlist, these shortlisted gamers had already gone by way of the info course of,” explains Graham. “How that was offered to Jurgen can be extra like a dialogue with Michael as they have been watching movies of the participant to say ‘see what number of pictures Mo’s getting from huge, that’s far more productive than your typical huge ahead can be’.
“That may all learn by the info nevertheless it comes by way of because the story from the video evaluation relatively than Jurgen saying ‘ah I see Mo is primary in Italy for anticipated objectives’ – that wasn’t the way it labored!”
In Graham’s personal phrases, Klopp was not excited or keen about statistics of gamers.
“Being the supervisor of Liverpool, or supervisor of any soccer membership, is a really aggravating and time consuming course of, you’ve simply bought higher issues to do than take a look at my statistical analytics,” he says, maybe humbly.
“I had only a few conferences instantly with Jurgen. Jurgen could be very sensible man, he’s bought an intuitive understanding of the type of work that we do, however he’s not significantly fascinated by statistics.
“And for those who wished to type of current the participant to him, we tried a few instances exhibiting him the statistics of gamers nevertheless it simply didn’t excite him or trigger him to be enthusiastic in any method in any respect.
“So the way in which my division labored was as a service supplier, for those who like, to different departments, to supply our insights and our suggestions, which undergo the scouting division and thru Michael Edwards when it comes to recruitment, by way of the video evaluation crew, when it comes to the post-match evaluation or opposition evaluation, by way of the medical division for sport science points and so forth.”
‘Casual discussions’ with FSG over a return
Graham’s departure from Liverpool, formally in summer season 2023, arrived after Edwards (2022), and Julian Ward (2023) additionally departed the membership, and sparked some concern that this was an indication that Liverpool’s method as a data-driven membership was being left behind.
“I’d achieved what I wished to attain,” insists Graham when explaining his departure.
“For the remainder of the [analysis] crew it was an excellent alternative. Will Spearman, who I employed again in 2018, he’s now bought my outdated function and everybody else has modified modified their roles just a little bit as effectively.”
Graham resigned a 12 months after Edwards left the membership, one thing he admits was a shock on the time: “After which a 12 months later issues have been altering on the membership as effectively with all of this, with all of these senior management adjustments, nevertheless it was simply time for a change [personally].”
Edwards and Ward, together with David Woodfine (previously director of mortgage administration who additionally left in 2023) have now all been re-appointed by FSG; Edwards as FSG’s CEO of Soccer; Ward as FSG’s Technical Director, and Woodfine as Liverpool’s assistant sporting director.
Fenway additionally introduced in Hans Leitert, previously a goalkeeping marketing consultant for LFC, to work for FSG as their head of world goalkeeping.
So did FSG method Graham on additionally returning?
“I had some casual discussions,” admits Graham. “However I feel after being so near the membership and so concerned in that day-to-day enterprise, I actually wished to do one thing else.
“My new enterprise, which is an analytics consultancy, it’s form of the very best of each worlds, we work very carefully with golf equipment, give them good recommendation about recruitment and tips on how to use knowledge in soccer however I’m not in danger; getting a signing over the road or if the crew performs badly for 3 video games in a row.
“I used to be approached by a few Premier League golf equipment with ‘are you able to repeat the trick for us, are you able to do what you probably did for Liverpool’ and I wasn’t concerned about doing the identical once more with a membership that I cared much less about than with Liverpool.”
Whereas Graham gained’t be concerned, the hope for Liverpool supporters and FSG now’s that Edwards and the brand new construction can oversee a brand new period for the membership and certainly repeat the trick once more.
You should purchase Ian’s e book, The way to Win the Premier League: The Inside Story of Soccer’s Information Revolution, right here.
Watch and hearken to the total chat with Ian in a 50-minute podcast episode, right here.