This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs didn’t anticipate shopping for on the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer primarily confirmed as a lot in a chat with reporters simply earlier than tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.
Hoyer stated the entrance workplace will method the deadline with an eye fixed towards to the longer term. “The place we’re proper now, I must say that strikes just for 2024 – until issues change over the subsequent week – we most likely received’t do loads of strikes that solely assist us for this 12 months,” Chicago’s baseball ops chief stated (hyperlink by way of Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If strikes assist us for 2025 and past I believe we’re exceptionally nicely positioned.”
Whereas Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the scenario may change this week, there’s not a lot ambiguity in how he expects to deal with the deadline. He spoke frankly concerning the staff’s “poor place” almost about this season. “We merely dug a gap with underperformance for 2 months. That doesn’t have an effect on how I view the group or how I view issues going ahead nevertheless it definitely impacts 2024,” Hoyer stated.
It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free brokers. Hoyer didn’t time period Chicago’s method as shopping for or promoting. That leaves open the opportunity of making an attempt to amass MLB expertise that’s below staff management past this season. Whereas that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of groups buying controllable gamers on the deadline regardless of being out of competition), it’s not frequent. The Cubs would want to outbid groups which can be motivated to land these gamers for each a possible playoff push this summer season and future seasons.
Chicago’s farm system is thought to be one of many strongest within the league. That provides Hoyer and his workers the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable participant of word, however the likelier final result is that the Cubs will simply transfer a number of short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of an entire teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an choice so (there’s) no level in going by means of the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core items who’re below contract or staff management past this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a staff’s leases on the desk, however the Cubs don’t have a lot to supply in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal comprises a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual choice) and up to date minor league signee Jorge López are the one true leases. Hendricks is enjoying on a $16.5MM wage and has an earned run common pushing 7.00. Whereas he has pitched higher these days after a dismal begin to the season, there’d be minimal curiosity. The Cubs may attempt to pay down nearly the entire contract to discover a commerce associate. Hendricks additionally has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at the least the final 5 of which have been together with his present staff) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA throughout 37 innings in an extended aid capability. That strong run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and stroll charges (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM wage and the aforementioned choice buyout, there’s more likely to be restricted curiosity within the veteran left-hander.
Cody Bellinger has the flexibility to decide out of the ultimate two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a effective however unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 throughout 344 plate appearances. That’d be a troublesome contract to maneuver even when Bellinger have been wholesome, and he went on the injured record a pair weeks in the past with a damaged finger.
If the Cubs wished to roughly run issues again in 2025, they’d be in for a really quiet deadline. But even when they’re not more likely to transfer long-term core items, Chicago may entertain gives on function gamers who’re controllable past this season. USA Right this moment’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Pink Sox have been starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM yearly between 2025-26. Rogers experiences that the Cubs have additionally gotten curiosity in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25, is below staff management by means of 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Tremendous Two cutoff for early arbitration subsequent offseason. The Cubs are definitely below no monetary strain to maneuver him, nevertheless it’s doable they’re ready to maneuver on if one other staff views Morel as an everyday. Morel is an efficient athlete with huge energy upside who has by no means discovered a defensive house. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and all through the outfield in earlier seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this 12 months, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm power would work on the place. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Common have every given him very poor grades for his stint on the sizzling nook.
This additionally hasn’t been an awesome season for Morel on the plate. Whereas he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 profession slash line that Morel carried into the season. Whereas that’s clearly not supreme, it belies some intriguing developments from a course of perspective. Morel has upped his stroll charge by a pair factors whereas dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s putting out 23.8% of the time this 12 months. An unsustainably low .221 common on balls in play has stored that from materializing into higher outcomes.
Even when the Cubs count on Morel’s offensive efficiency to normalize with an uptick in his common on balls in play, the shortage of a defensive match makes him a troublesome participant to worth. The Cubs may hope to show third base over to final 12 months’s first-round choose Matt Shaw as quickly as subsequent season. They don’t have a lot in the way in which of short-term alternate options. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d most likely depend on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Knowledge to cowl the place for the remainder of the season.
The Cubs must be open to gives on anybody of their bullpen. Neris has dealt with the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm pressure. The offseason signee has been shaky, strolling 16.1% of opponents and blowing 4 saves in 17 makes an attempt. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros final season, however that’s up two runs this 12 months due to his management woes. The 35-year-old righty is enjoying on a $9MM wage and has an identical choice for subsequent 12 months. That’s at the moment a staff choice however would convert to a participant choice if Neris pitches in 24 extra video games.
Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t more likely to need Neris again at that worth level. They’d presumably be pleased to discover a commerce associate, however the potential for being saddled with a $9MM participant choice if Neris hits his vesting marker may make different groups cautious. There’s much less threat almost about Leiter and Miller. The previous is putting out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder charge throughout 34 innings. He’s enjoying on a $1.5MM wage and is below arbitration management by means of 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in Might, has damaged out with a 2.04 ERA whereas putting out almost 26% of opponents throughout 35 1/3 frames.
Whether or not the Cubs get compelling sufficient gives to maneuver anybody from that group stays to be seen. They’re not completely buried within the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 video games again of the final playoff spot (at the moment held by the Mets). With 4 intervening groups to leap, the entrance workplace has determined they’re at finest an extended shot to make the postseason. How a lot they’re keen to reshape the roster with the ’25 marketing campaign in thoughts will probably be one of many greater questions of the upcoming week.
