The brand new 12 months has seen one thing of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. 5 free agent starters have signed multi-year offers guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the previous two weeks alone, and that has left few choices for groups hoping to discover a succesful rotation piece with out breaking the financial institution for a participant like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t fully devoid of choices of that caliber, nevertheless. One of many extra fascinating items remaining in the marketplace is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen started his profession with the Reds again in 2015 as a starter, however the then-23-year-old struggled within the function with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That troublesome rookie season resulted within the righty spending the rest of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, whereas additionally dabbling within the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open marketplace for the primary time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way function to be able to return to the beginning rotation full time with the Angels. The suitable-hander carried out as a stable, back-end starter in his first season again in a beginning function with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, although he was restricted to simply 18 begins by a shoulder pressure. his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled together with his command to a ten.5% stroll fee throughout his return to beginning in 2022, however struck out a decent 20.7% of batters confronted whereas producing grounders at a formidable 50.2% clip. That stable, back-end efficiency earned Lorenzen one other shot at beginning, this time as a member of the Tigers.
On the floor, Lorenzen’s 2023 season could not appear all that completely different from his 2022 marketing campaign. Whereas he managed 29 appearances (25 begins), his numbers had been largely just like these he posted the earlier season: in his 153 innings of labor break up between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him kind of according to his efficiency as member of the Angels the 12 months prior. Trying underneath the hood tells a special story, nevertheless. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit previous to the commerce noticed the right-hander flash the upside of a stable, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. Whereas his groundball fee dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout fee declined barely to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for these declining peripherals by reducing his stroll fee by almost half to a 6.5% determine that was higher than league common.
Whereas Lorenzen’s keep in Philadelphia began with a formidable pair of begins that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to simply 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he received shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of labor with a whopping 15 walks towards simply 18 strikeouts. That disastrous end to Lorenzen’s 2023 season noticed him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly throughout the membership’s playoff run this 12 months. Whereas Lorenzen’s brutal last 9 appearances final 12 months can’t be solely discounted, it needs to be famous that Lorenzen’s innings whole of 153 was a profession excessive, and the primary time he reached even 100 innings of labor in a season since his MLB debut again in 2015. That he was capable of keep his success via 122 2/3 innings of labor throughout 20 begins earlier than issues started to unravel figures to lend hope to the chance Lorenzen can return to that type in 2024 with extra cautious innings administration.
By way of potential suitors, the market has been solely quiet concerning the 32-year-old this winter, although it’s simple to see loads of speculative suits for his companies. The Giants and Angels have each proven appreciable curiosity in bolstering their beginning pitching corps all through the winter, although every could look to intention for extra impactful additions than Lorenzen. Groups that hope so as to add to their rotation however determine to face price range crunches this winter, such because the Padres and Pink Sox, may see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a assure of simply $22MM over two years for, as a extra financially palatable different to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are amongst a bunch of different groups that stand to learn from extra rotation depth and will see the veteran righty as a extra inexpensive different to different choices.
