So far within the offseason, the free agent market has moved considerably sooner for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Prime 50 Free Brokers have signed this winter, and 16 of these (together with Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even past the highest 50, pitchers have made up the vast majority of notable MLB signings. Nonetheless, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, maybe the marketplace for place gamers will start to warmth up within the new 12 months.
One specific bat to regulate is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS throughout ten huge league seasons and 1,140 profession video games. Whereas he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Prime 50 record, he’s arguably one of the best hitter remaining among the many honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he might show to be a cut price for his new membership.
Over the primary 5 years of his profession, Pederson was a constant energy menace and a stroll machine, crushing 123 residence runs to associate with a 12.1% stroll fee and a .245 remoted energy. After a few down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way in which again in ’22, placing up one of the best offensive numbers of his profession. His .874 OPS ranked seventh within the Nationwide League (min. 400 PA), whereas his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star group since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist within the outfield.
Following his eye-catching 2022 marketing campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying provide from the Giants, greater than tripling his $6MM wage from the earlier season. Sadly, he was not capable of reside as much as the excessive expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash classes, and whereas his .764 OPS was nonetheless properly above common, it was hardly elite.
Be that as it might, there’s loads of motive for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 marketing campaign. For one factor, he recorded his highest stroll fee since 2015 and one of the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his profession in 2023. His batting common and on-base share nonetheless declined, however that would merely be the results of unhealthy luck on balls in play. Whereas his .235 BA was under league common, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was considerably above common. Furthermore, the -0.029 distinction between his BA and xBA was the second largest hole amongst NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).
In the identical vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was proper in step with his .367 xwOBA from the earlier season. Certainly, Pederson’s Baseball Savant web page paints a fairly promising image general. His xwOBA ranked within the ninetieth percentile in MLB, whereas his 52.2% hard-hit fee ranked within the 96th. On prime of that, he set a brand new profession excessive in most exit velocity, crushing one specific pitch at 116.6 mph. Solely 13 hitters topped that quantity in 2023, a listing of batters suffering from MVP candidates and All-Stars. For sure, we’re speaking a few hitter who can nonetheless demolish the baseball.
With all that in thoughts, it’s cheap to presume Pederson will enhance upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. In keeping with the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) amongst all unsigned free brokers. Solely Jorge Soler (.813) is forward of him by a slim margin, whereas Michael Brantley has the following highest projection at .799. To be honest, Pederson is unlikely to be an on a regular basis participant, and his projections presume a restricted quantity of publicity to same-handed pitching. Nonetheless, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy facet of a platoon is a helpful participant to have round.
But, in contrast to fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been related with many groups to date this winter. Given the shallow marketplace for affect bats, particularly left-handed hitters, it’s considerably unusual he hasn’t generated extra curiosity.
Across the finish of the common season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would like to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I actually prefer it right here,” he defined. “It’s an incredible group of fellows. I really like the way in which they run the group.” Whereas such feedback aren’t at all times notably revelatory, particularly once they concern a participant’s present group, it’s value noting that Pederson selected to return to the Giants in 2023 as an alternative of testing the open market after his All-Star season. As well as, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all however one 12 months of his skilled profession taking part in in his residence state of California.
Nonetheless, the Giants are virtually definitely out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. Along with Lee, the Giants have 4 veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre profession platoon splits towards same-handed pitching – very similar to Pederson himself.
Pederson additionally spurred temporary hypothesis he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting an image of himself posing at Residents Financial institution Park to his private Instagram account. The rumors had been shortlived, nevertheless, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com rapidly set the report straight: “It doesn’t imply he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”
To that finish, Pederson by no means made a lot sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski goes to signal one other bat, he’ll presumably goal a right-handed hitter with a bit extra defensive versatility.
The one group Pederson has been related with by any supply aside from himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed curiosity within the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report got here earlier than Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, however that doesn’t imply the membership couldn’t add Pederson, too. Normal supervisor Ross Atkins talked about early within the offseason that he would think about including a main DH, and the Jays must also have taking part in time accessible in each outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer want a while off their toes. That mentioned, the Blue Jays have additionally been closely linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA At this time calling them the favorites a few weeks again. Signing Bellinger, one other left-handed outfielder, would probably take Toronto out of the working for Pederson.
So, past these three golf equipment, the place might Pederson wind up? One potential touchdown spot is the Angels, who’ve room within the outfield and will definitely use a left-handed energy bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to begin a rebuild, and after lacking out on Ohtani, he ought to have loads of money to spend. In keeping with the estimates offered by Roster Useful resource, the Angels’ payroll at present sits about $60MM under the ultimate tally from final season.
One other chance is the Nationals, who’re reportedly searching for a left-handed energy bat this winter. If that’s certainly the case, there is likely to be no higher possibility than Pederson. It’s onerous to think about the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would select to signal with a rebuilding membership. In the meantime, Brantley is a wonderful left-handed hitter, however energy hasn’t been part of his offensive toolkit in a number of years. Brandon Belt is the one different free agent who appears to be like to be an impactful left-handed hitter, nevertheless it’s anybody’s guess if he can hold mashing in his age-36 season.
Lastly, the Mariners are yet another suitor value preserving in thoughts. After buying and selling Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle might use one other lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get many of the taking part in time at DH, however the Mariners have room for an improve in both one of many outfield corners. Contemplating president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent place gamers to longer-term contracts, Pederson looks as if an excellent match; he is likely to be one of the best free agent outfielder who can be open to signing a one-year deal.
Photograph courtesy of USA At this time Sports activities Photos
