For Gavin Stone, Jeff McNeil and Others on Contenders, It’s a Race Against the Clock to Return

We’re operating out of season. With the sector of contenders winnowed to the purpose that solely two groups have Playoff Odds between 8% and 80%, a lot of the intrigue past jockeying for seeding considerations a race in opposition to the clock. Gamers have solely a lot time to recuperate from accidents, significantly new ones, and so some returns are doubtful. Their availability may very effectively have an effect on how the playoffs unfold.

On that entrance, it was a weekend that includes unhealthy information for some contenders as they reckoned with their newest unhealthy breaks, figuratively and actually. Gavin Stone, the sudden stalwart of the Dodgers rotation, landed on the injured listing as a consequence of shoulder irritation, whereas Jeff McNeil, one of many Mets’ hottest hitters, suffered a fractured wrist. Whit Merrifield, who’s performed good work filling in at second base for the Braves, broke a bone in his foot, and, if we shift focus to the fringes of the Wild Card race, the Mariners Luis Castillo strained a hamstring. Every of those conditions deserves a more in-depth look, so pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er.

Dodgers

Given final 12 months’s 9.00 ERA in a 31-inning cup of espresso — the product of pitch-tipping, because it seems — Stone was an unlikely candidate to guide the Dodgers in begins (25) and innings (140.1) up to now. But the 25-year-old righty has not solely performed that, posting a stable 3.53 ERA and 4.03 FIP, he’s been the one member of the staff’s season-opening rotation to keep away from the IL… till now. Even a few additional days to relaxation earlier than Friday’s scheduled begin weren’t sufficient to maintain Stone from being sidelined.

Supervisor Dave Roberts informed reporters on Friday that Stone could be shut down from throwing for no less than 10 days, whereas president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman admitted the staff isn’t certain whether or not he’ll return in time for the postseason, including, “I’m optimistic he’s going to do all the pieces he probably can. There’s simply a lot unknown round it that we’re going to do all we are able to to dominate every day, and hopefully, when he begins throwing, he can ramp up from there. It’s simply arduous to take a position proper now.”

Stone’s harm wouldn’t be such an enormous deal if the Dodgers didn’t have so many key starters already on the IL, together with Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Clayton Kershaw. If the playoffs have been to start out in the present day, the one certainty could be deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, with rookie Landon Knack the one different wholesome starter who’s pitched acceptably sufficient (3.00 ERA, 4.55 IP in 54 innings) to benefit getting the ball, and each Walker Buehler (5.67 ERA, 5.98 FIP in 54 innings) and Bobby Miller (7.79 ERA, 6.80 FIP in 49.2 innings) looking for their manner out of the tall grass after post-injury struggles.

The newest starter to wind up on the IL is Kershaw. On August 30, in his seventh begin since getting back from shoulder surgical procedure, the 36-year-old southpaw departed after only one inning and three runs allowed to the Diamondbacks as a consequence of a bone spur in his left huge toe. Given the opponent, it was an uncomfortable reminder of the abrupt ending of his 2023 season, however fortunately, the harm wasn’t arm-related — or back-related, for that matter. He’s handled the bone spur for “possibly a few years” in response to Roberts, and whereas it’s normally manageable, on this case, he had a lot swelling he couldn’t push off the rubber and keep his velocity. The Dodgers are optimistic Kershaw can return with out surgical procedure; he’s carrying a strolling boot however has been capable of play catch. Whereas he’s been erratic when accessible (4.50 ERA and three.55 FIP in 30 innings), he had a fairly sturdy three-start stretch the place he allowed simply two runs in 16.1 innings in opposition to the Phillies, Brewers, and Cardinals from August 6–18.

If there’s excellent news, it’s that on Tuesday Yamamoto is slated to return from a virtually three-month absence as a consequence of a rotator cuff pressure, going through the Cubs and Shota Imanaga. Earlier than being sidelined with what was initially described as triceps tightness, the 25-year-old righty had pitched exceptionally effectively, delivering a 2.92 ERA and a pair of.69 FIP in 74 innings over 14 begins, and a 2.33 ERA and over six innings per flip if you happen to don’t rely his one-inning catastrophe in Seoul within the season’s second recreation. Yamamoto has made simply two rehab begins of two innings apiece, with pitch counts of 31 and 53 for Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, so the expectation is that he’ll prime out within the neighborhood of 70–75 pitches and proceed build up from there.

As for Glasnow, who has already set profession highs for begin (22) and innings (134), he’s working his manner again from a mid-August analysis of elbow tendinitis. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen on Saturday, his first time throwing off the mound since being sidelined, and can throw no less than yet another on Tuesday earlier than going through dwell hitters. With Double-A Tulsa’s season ending on September 15 and Oklahoma Metropolis’s on September 22, the Dodgers are hoping to squeeze in no less than one rehab begin earlier than he returns.

Yet another harm to notice. If Friday’s information about Stone wasn’t unhealthy sufficient, the sight of Teoscar Hernández departing after being hit on the fitting foot by Matthew Boyd was significantly nerve-wracking, because the 31-year-old slugger has come up huge again and again for the staff, hitting .266/.331/.488 (128 wRC+) with 28 homers. Fortuitously, he’s been recognized with a contusion and might be again early this week.

As with an offense that has largely bludgeoned opponents into submission for the reason that returns of Mookie Betts and Max Muncy — they’ve averaged 5.56 runs per recreation since August 19 whereas going 13-5, shopping for them respiration room within the NL West race — the Dodgers have the beginning pitching to win all of it. But their probabilities of doing so come all the way down to what number of of those guys will likely be accessible and efficient in October. In that gentle, their first-round bye looms giant, significantly in comparison with the opposite groups on this roundup.

Mets

Because of a nine-game successful streak that briefly carried them into sole possession of the third NL Wild Card slot, the Mets have been the majors’ hottest staff, but when they’re to safe a playoff spot, they’ll must do it with out McNeil, who is predicted to overlook 4 to 6 weeks — the remainder of the common season after which some. The 32-year-old second baseman fractured his proper wrist throughout the fifth inning of Friday’s recreation, when he was hit by a curveball from the Reds’ Brandon Williamson whereas making an attempt to bunt:

Neither McNeil nor the Mets initially believed the harm was significantly critical, as he stayed within the recreation, ran the bases and performed the sector within the sixth inning. Solely when he was readying himself to bat once more did he understand he couldn’t proceed. By way of MLB.com:

“I assumed nothing of it actually, it was a breaking ball: 95 p.c certain it hit the [wrist] guard I used to be carrying,” McNeil stated. “It didn’t harm that unhealthy operating the bases, after which I began to really feel it a little bit bit warming up the following inning, simply throwing the ball to first base… Went into the cage, and it simply didn’t really feel good to swing. So it was extra that turning-over movement that made it flare up.”

Harrison Bader pinch-hit for McNeil, and Jose Iglesias, who had pinch-hit for Jesse Winker earlier within the inning, took over at second base in a recreation the Mets gained 6-4 in 10 innings on a Mark Vientos walk-off homer. An MRI taken on Saturday revealed McNeils’ fracture. At finest, his timeline would make him accessible a while in early to mid-October, ought to the Mets nonetheless be enjoying.

Based mostly on his general numbers, McNeil is within the midst of his second subpar season in a row, hitting .238/.308/.384 with 12 homers, and 5 steals. Each his 98 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR are his lowest marks since 2021, however his general numbers undersell his in-season rebound. When the Mets began the season 24-35, McNeil hit simply .227/.296/.320 (80 wRC+) whereas enjoying practically daily; till Could 30, all of his days off got here in opposition to righties, with lefty-swinging Joey Wendle taking seven begins in his place.

Wendle didn’t hit, nevertheless, and the Mets DFA’d after which launched him in mid-Could. On Could 31, they recalled Iglesias from Triple-A Syracuse, and from June 3–8, supervisor Carlos Mendoza began him at second, with McNeil benched with a view to get a reset. Since then, Mendoza has used a modified platoon, with McNeil beginning simply twice in opposition to lefties, in opposition to whom he’s hit simply .234/.284/.336 (78 wRC+) this 12 months, and Iglesias taking some begins in opposition to righties whereas hitting an out-of-character .316/.364/.440 (129 wRC+) in 209 PA general.

McNeil didn’t actually begin hitting till after the All-Star break, however he’s been on fireplace since:

Although his common exit velocity and hard-hit price haven’t modified a lot, McNeil’s barrel price greater than quadrupled, and his residence run price greater than tripled, from 1.5% of all plate appearances to 4.7%. Amongst all Mets, his 157 wRC+ within the second half trails solely that of MVP candidate Francisco Lindor (159). Between McNeil’s tear and the arrival of Iglesias, second base has gone from a place of weak spot to one among power, the small pattern of September however:

As for the place the Mets go from right here, the chances are Iglesias — who has hit for a 115 wRC+ in 138 PA in opposition to righties and a 153 wRC+ in 72 PA in opposition to lefties — will get the majority of the enjoying time at second. Journeyman infielder Pablo Reyes, who has been restricted to a single pinch-running look since being known as up on September 1, is the backup for the second. The 31-year-old righty-swinging utilityman hit simply .183/.234/.217 (23 wRC+) in 64 PA for the Purple Sox earlier this 12 months however was fairly productive as lately as final 12 months (.287/.339/.377, 94 wRC+). The Mets may dip into their minor league system to name up Luisangel Acuña, a 22-year-old 45-FV prospect who ranks sixth on their up to date staff listing and who, as you might need guessed by his identify, is the youthful brother of Braves celebrity Ronald Acuña Jr. He hasn’t hit a lot since being acquired from the Rangers within the Max Scherzer commerce, with a .261/.301/.362 (71 wRC+) line at Syracuse, however he did steal 38 bases and might play each center infield positions in addition to heart area.

Braves

With the Mets’ 3-1 loss to the Reds on Sunday and the Braves’ 4-3 walk-off win over the Blue Jays, the 2 NL East rivals are each 78-65, tied for the third Wild Card spot. Atlanta’s center infield has a brand new harm as effectively, as Merrifield fouled a ball off his left foot throughout Friday’s recreation in opposition to the Blue Jays and suffered a fracture. Based mostly on preliminary CT and MRI scans, the Braves believed he would miss six to eight weeks, however after consulting with a foot specialist Saturday, the staff is optimistic he can return a lot sooner. “It’s a secure fracture,” Merrifield informed reporters on Saturday. “So, we’ll attempt to get the smooth tissue and swelling down. It’s only a ache tolerance factor after that from my understanding.”

The 35-year-old Merrifield spent the season’s first half with the Phillies, hitting simply .199/.277/.295 (64 wRC+) in 174 PA earlier than drawing his launch, however since becoming a member of the Braves in late July and filling in for the injured Ozzie Albies, he’s hit a good .243/.359/.342 (103 wRC+) in 134 PA, although his protection at second base has been at finest a blended bag in response to the metrics (-6 DRS, 1 FRV).

As for Albies, the 27-year-old switch-hitter has been out since July 22 after fracturing his left wrist in a collision throughout a stolen base try. It was his second journey to the IL this season; he additionally missed 10 days after breaking the massive toe of his proper foot in mid-April. When accessible, he’s hit a modest .258/.310/.407 (98 wRC+) in 394 PA. Whereas he’s been working in the direction of a return, he continues to expertise discomfort whereas swinging left-handed, typically his weaker aspect (96 wRC+ profession, in comparison with 146 wRC+ batting righty in opposition to lefties). The Braves haven’t dominated out the opportunity of Albies returning and batting completely as a righty however are leaving that call with the participant, in response to supervisor Brian Snitker.

With Albies nonetheless out together with Austin Riley — who fractured his proper hand on August 19 when hit by a pitch and is predicted to overlook six to eight weeks — the Braves acquired Cavan Biggio from the Giants on Saturday by way of a minor league deal. That is the 29-year-old Biggio’s fourth group of 2024. He started the season with the Blue Jays, was DFA’d and traded to the Dodgers on June 12, then DFA’d once more and launched on August 8. The Giants signed him on August 23, however he solely performed for his or her Triple-A Sacramento affiliate, the place he went 7-for-43. He hit a mixed .197/.316/.306 (86 wRC+) in 219 PA with the Blue Jays and Dodgers, which explains why he’s fallen out of favor, however as lately as final 12 months, he produced a 102 wRC+ for Toronto. Since he was not within the Braves group as of September 1, he’s ineligible for the postseason roster, however contemplating that the participant the Braves began at second base 3 times up to now week rather than Merrifield, Luke Williams, is a profession .223/.284/.294 (61 wRC+) hitter in 307 PA, absolutely anything appears like an improve. Eli White, who got here off the bench to play proper area after which second base within the late innings on Sunday and went 2-for-2 whereas scoring the tying and successful runs, can also be within the combine, however he’s a profession .189/.265/.304 (59 wRC+) hitter in 434 PA.

Mariners

What was as soon as a 10-game AL West lead over the Astros is now a 4.5-game deficit, because the Mariners have gone 29-40 since that high-water mark on June 18. Now 73-71, the staff nonetheless has slim hopes (7.6%) of reaching the postseason by both the division or Wild Card routes, however the rotation with the majors’ lowest ERA (3.36) and fourth-highest WAR (14.3) might not get far more assist from Castillo. The 31-year-old righty left Sunday’s begin in opposition to the Cardinals after simply three innings as a consequence of a left hamstring pressure. He’ll endure an MRI on Monday that can decide the severity and his outlook.

Although his 3.64 ERA ranks fourth amongst Mariners starters and his 3.93 FIP fifth, Castillo leads the staff — and the AL — with 30 begins. He’s second on the employees and sixth within the majors in innings (175.1), however has been barely much less efficient within the second half than the primary. The drop-off to a fill-in starter (doubtless Emerson Hancock, who’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA and 5.43 FIP in 45.1 innings) is substantial, significantly for a staff that faces such a steep uphill battle to get to October.