Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week, September 13

Welcome to a different version of 5 Issues I Preferred (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. September is a magical time for baseball. Half of the video games are largely for enjoyable, with groups enjoying out the string and competing for bragging rights. These video games produce some pleasant nonsense, as a result of groups are sometimes extra keen to interact in tomfoolery when the stakes are low. The opposite half of the video games (utilizing half very broadly right here, after all) are much more essential than any video games from earlier within the season; they decide playoff berths, house subject benefit, and statistical milestones. These video games have all of the depth lacking from the opposite half, proper all the way down to electrical crowds and locked-in benches. That duality is a ton of enjoyable. This yr, we’ve even bought a really historic statistical chase occurring so as to add to the thrill. Zach Lowe’s NBA column, which impressed this collection, at all times hits its stride when groups are build up for the playoffs. I feel that baseball developments in the identical path. Let’s get proper to it.

1. When the Ball Doesn’t Lie

That is simply outrageous:

The umpire is a part of the sector of play. That’s simply how the rule works. Umpires do their finest to get out of the way in which of batted balls, each for self-preservation and for the integrity of the sport. John Bacon wasn’t making an attempt to insert himself into the play; he was in foul territory and targeted on getting the truthful/foul name proper, and there was merely no option to keep away from this rip. Bryson Stott couldn’t imagine it:

What a horrible time for that stroke of dangerous luck. The Phillies are enjoying for the highest seed within the NL, and the sport was tied within the backside of the eighth. The distinction between a double and an out there may be enormous; it’s a swing of roughly 20% win chance. Nothing that both workforce did accounted for that swing; it actually got here all the way down to random probability, a baseball taking place to bounce off of a person making an attempt desperately to get out of its manner.

You may think about that sort of dangerous beat turning the sport round. A number of Phillies dangle their heads right here, a couple of Rays get impressed there, and the postgame quotes all revolve round how that fluke play swung the momentum. I’ve actually seen related video games, and related tales, earlier than. And it’s the Phillies! They’ve a historical past of stuff like this. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to foretell a technique the pendulum might have swung.

As an alternative, this occurred:

After which this:

And this:

The Phillies gained comfortably after that. Loopy bounces swing video games, besides after they don’t. It’s a very good reminder that generally an occasion that feels unfair and insurmountable finally ends up not mattering in any respect.

2. Unbelievable Catches

The Tigers are scorching proper now, house owners of the most effective file in baseball during the last month. They’re nonetheless on the surface of the playoff race, however they will at the very least dream about situations the place they sneak in, one thing that might have sounded far-fetched on the commerce deadline. Even their cameramen are making performs:

That’s an unbelievable snag. As Jason Benetti identified, he didn’t even cease filming whereas he did it. Watch his left hand stay on the digicam at the same time as he makes the catch. That’s focus proper there:

Hey, if you’re scorching you’re scorching. I discover myself tuning into at the very least a part of the Tigers broadcast practically every single day now, and goofy little gems like this are turning up in every single place. It’s partially as a result of the workforce is having a whole lot of enjoyable proper now and partially as a result of the printed simply tends towards the pleasant typically.

Need proof that the workforce is feeling the magic? Their finest participant appeared as amazed by the cameraman’s catch as I did:

It helps that the Tigers had been already beating the pants off of the Rockies, however if you’re on a 19-9 run, it certain is simpler to have enjoyable at work.

This in all probability wouldn’t have made my weekly record if I weren’t simply itching for an opportunity to make use of one other clip from later this inning, although. Kirk Gibson, a participant I’ve been linked to since earlier than I’ve reminiscences, is Detroit’s colour commentator. He was telling Benetti a narrative a few time he was heckled, and I used to be actually hoping it might be the time my dad heckled him. It was, as an alternative, only a story in regards to the followers within the bleachers driving him and getting underneath his pores and skin. However it led to Benetti asking if he bought aggravated when folks poked him, after which doing this:

Yeah, it’s a very good time to be a Tigers fan. You’ve bought among the finest play-by-play announcers within the recreation calling a workforce on the rise. What extra might you ask for?

3. Ohtani Odds

Let’s be trustworthy right here: I’m watching the Dodgers every single day proper now, and Shohei Ohtani’s chase for 50/50 is essentially the most compelling story within the sport. I’m making an attempt to catch each at-bat as a result of I feel I’ll keep in mind this chase for years to come back in the identical manner that Aaron Choose’s 62-homer season sticks in my reminiscence.

Along with his latest burst of energy, Ohtani is knocking on historical past’s door, with 47 homers and 48 steals. He nonetheless has 16 video games to play – my simulation mannequin thinks he’s 80% more likely to hit the milestone by season’s finish. It additionally thinks that the six-game homestand that stretches from September 20-26 is the most effective probability to see it:

In 48% of my simulations, Ohtani’s record-breaking recreation is a type of six. The previous seven video games have solely a 14.1% mixed probability. That largely comes all the way down to the truth that Atlanta’s pitching employees is sweet and its stadium is way much less pleasant than Dodger Stadium for lefty energy.

That’s in all probability the best final result for Dodgers followers, which is cool. Information are finest set at house. These video games are going to have electrical atmospheres – an enormous stadium full of individuals hoping to see essentially the most proficient participant of our era put his identify within the file books ceaselessly. I’m extraordinarily excited to observe them, and actually, I’ll take any excuse to speak about Ohtani as of late. Watching him has at all times been a deal with, however by no means extra so than proper now.

4. Mega Stroll-OffTyler O’Neill is on a ridiculous tear proper now. Over the previous two weeks, he’s been Boston’s finest hitter by a mile – six house runs will do this. He has two separate multi-homer video games in that stretch, and the Pink Sox have wanted each final little bit of that juice to remain on the periphery of the playoff hunt. Wednesday night time, although, O’Neill kicked his act into overdrive.

The visiting Orioles scratched a run collectively within the high of the tenth inning. The Pink Sox had been in first rate place to tie the sport after Jackson Holliday booted a one-out grounder. However then O’Neill known as recreation:

Tyler O’Neill sends a #walkoff HR manner over the Monster! pic.twitter.com/nRtMZdBOo1

— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2024

Not all game-ending homers are created equal. That one was majestic, and the Inexperienced Monster supplied a backdrop that underscored simply how excessive and deep it went. That’s clearly a house run in each stadium, however one thing about Fenway makes it look grander. Disappearing into the night time like that’s simply extra spectacular when there’s an enormous wall beneath it.

That’s not O’Neill’s longest homer of the season. It isn’t even his longest of the previous few weeks; that honor goes to a different Monster ball from earlier within the collection:

However if you mix the angle, the environment, and the place within the recreation, the walk-off blast is one in every of my favourite house runs of the season. The Pink Sox dugout felt equally; they mobbed O’Neill when he reached house:

The Pink Sox in all probability aren’t making the playoffs this yr, however they’re enjoying in significant and thrilling collection down the stretch. They took two of three from Baltimore, and now they’re within the Bronx making an attempt to spoil the Yankees’ September. They’ve one other house collection towards the Twins left, and given Minnesota’s latest swoon, that one might have playoff implications for each side. The Pink Sox aren’t a powerhouse, however their video games are extremely enjoyable to observe proper now.

5. Tight Races

That Pink Sox-Orioles recreation was solely half of the AL East’s extra-inning extravaganza on Wednesday night time. The Yankees and Royals confronted off with excessive stakes on each side; the Yankees try to carry off Baltimore for a first-round bye and Kansas Metropolis has an outdoor shot at catching the Guardians within the AL Central. The 2 groups exchanged scoring probabilities for the primary 9 innings and ended up in a 2-2 stalemate. They every cashed of their automated runner within the tenth, however the Royals couldn’t rating within the high of the eleventh, which led to a game-ending play on the plate:

That recreation had enormous playoff implications. It pushed the Yankees 1 1/2 video games forward of Baltimore, which provides them some respiratory room within the divisional race. That respiratory room shall be essential, as a result of if the O’s don’t get swept of their September 24-26 collection towards the Yankees, they’ll clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Yankees in all probability have to win the division outright slightly than ending with the identical file – in the event that they sweep the O’s, a tie isn’t significantly seemingly anyway. If both of those two extra-inning video games had gone the opposite manner, issues would look very totally different at this time.

That’s not the one race occurring, although. The Mets and Braves are buying and selling wins and losses as they seek out the final spot (or two spots if the Diamondbacks fall fully aside) within the Nationwide League subject. The sawtooth sample of their Wild Card odds in latest weeks tells the story:

The Mets bought began early on Wednesday with a exceptional turnaround. Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis took a no-hit bid into the ninth inning with a 1-0 lead. However Francisco Lindor continued his months-long scorching streak and tied the sport up with a single swing. Gary Cohen’s “Lind-sanity” name was completely excellent:

Lind-sanity!

Francisco Lindor ties it with the primary @Mets hit of the sport! pic.twitter.com/9nc1kmcTuz

— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024

The Mets poured on 5 extra runs towards the Blue Jays bullpen and completed with a 6-2 win. Atlanta’s recreation didn’t begin till after the Mets had locked this one up, and the Braves offense appeared flat in a 5-1 loss to the Nationals. Mix the one-game lead and the truth that the season is getting shorter and shorter, and it’s the primary time our odds have favored the Mets over the Braves all yr.

In fact, issues appeared totally different a day earlier, when the Braves clobbered Washington 12-0 and the Mets bought labored over by the Blue Jays. This one goes to come back proper all the way down to the wire, and each recreation is more likely to matter. There may not be a ton of playoff races occurring in the intervening time, however that simply means there’s extra time to spend marveling on the ones which are nonetheless being contested. September baseball is at its finest when there are significant video games and chases. Between Ohtani’s pursuit of historical past and these two shut races between divisional rivals, this yr is delivering in spades to date.