The Bucs offense had alternatives to place up extra than simply 18 factors of their Thursday Night time Soccer matchup in opposition to the Buffalo Payments. In an effort to illustrate this level, over a two-part sequence I believed it might be greatest to go drive-by-drive into the offense and spotlight the highs and lows contributing to its present state of affairs. I’ll break up the sequence into the primary and second half of the sport.
Drive One
The Bucs opened the sport on their very own 27-yard line. They began the primary drive in acquainted style with a pistol run. The consequence was something however acquainted, truly. Because of good lateral push from the offensive line and a decisive reduce and drive from working again Rachaad White, the Bucs offense was in a position to lead off with six yards. They adopted that play up with a man-beater that obtained a number of receivers open. And quarterback Baker Mayfield discovered receiver Trey Palmer over the center with a tight-window throw.
I’ve talked about Baker having excessive variance play. An instance of the excessive’s. He usually hasn’t been nice over the center. However this was an ideal throw. Not an ideal recreation total, however an ideal throw. pic.twitter.com/YQhvF1Iv2x
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 28, 2023
The throw and catch netted a primary down and offensive coordinator Dave Canales determined to press the envelope with a “canine” idea with Chris Godwin working a shallow out from the slot beneath Mike Evans’ deep nook from the one. This put vertical stress on the skin nook in a Cowl 2 scheme and opened Evans up on what would have been a 20-yard go.
Very subsequent play. Some might lay this on the ft of Evans, others Mayfield. I lean Mayfield. Overarching level: Play name was good. Construction was good (Evans open). Execution killed what would have been an enormous acquire. pic.twitter.com/Eyl9SfWgMR
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 28, 2023
Then the snowball started. A false begin penalty on Tristan Wirfs put the Bucs offense in a 2nd & 15 scenario. Tampa Bay tries to choose up some yards with a fast bubble display to Trey Palmer, however the play by no means obtained off the bottom because of Palmer slipping and Deven Thompkins blowing his block. For what it’s value, Thompkins has missed a number of blocks on the perimeter for screens this season. If Canales goes to combine bubble/perimeter screens into his offense, he wants to verify his smallest receiver is just not part of the frontside blocking scheme.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA In the present day
Confronted with a third & 15, Mayfield tries to seek out tight finish Cade Otton over the center on a brief curl to only acquire a number of yards and arrange a coffin nook punt. Otton obtained the ball knocked out of his arms and the drive was over.
Main Success/Failure Factors: The Mayfield go to Evans and the false begin doomed the drive. Play construction for the passes was strong as Mayfield had his first learn open on each go try. Move safety was good for the drive and Mayfield made one good throw adopted by one questionable one (as you may see from my tweet, it’s laborious to say if it was Mayfield or Evans who was actually accountable). Play sequencing was OK, however on the Wirfs false begin, he jumped right into a run set on 2nd & 10. It may have been a play-action name, however Canales has been recognized to run on 2nd and lengthy.
Drive Two
The Bucs led off their 2nd drive of the sport midway by the primary quarter with a barely out-of-the-box play name that gained 14 yards on a Godwin finish round. On the following play, they return to the normal run effectively with an inside zone. The Payments had a lightweight field in opposition to the Bucs’ seven-man offensive entrance, so the play had an opportunity to succeed, however left guard Aaron Stinnie tripped coming off of his double workforce leaving an unblocked linebacker within the gap for White to attempt to deal with. The consequence was only a two-yard acquire.
On the subsequent play, the Bucs tried a designed flat display to White with Cade Otton, Ko Kieft and Rakim Jarrett. Otton lands his block and Jarrett obliterates the cornerback on a snatch-and-trap, however Kieft lets his mark go by and White will get a minimal acquire.
Wanna know the way UDFA receivers discover snaps in an offense? Present you may contribute in each side of the offense. Rakim Jarrett with the uncommon receiver snatch-and-trap. pic.twitter.com/OUu2hPRhwT
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 28, 2023
On third & 5, Baker tried to seek out Cade Otton deep over the center on a seam route with a layered throw that’s usually a throw he struggles with. The go was incomplete, however Buffalo was referred to as for defensive go interference, a 21-yard infraction that gave the Bucs a brand new set of downs and set them up on the Payments’ 40-yard line.
Following a one-yard run by Ke’Shawn Vaughn, the Bucs averted close to catastrophe with a botched shotgun snap that Mayfield deftly recovered and launched a purposeful incomplete go to keep away from a lack of yards. For what it’s value, had the snap been clear, Mayfield most certainly would have discovered Evans sizzling for a fast 5-7 yards within the face of a security blitz off the sting.
On third & 9, Baker hit Evans on a fast slant. This arrange a 4th & 2, the place head coach Todd Bowles elected to take a discipline aim that was blocked.
Main Success/Failure Factors: Play designs had been efficient, however once more I’ve some small considerations with personnel utilization (Thompkins as a lead blocker on a display). Extra first down runs, which has been a important sticking level for me all season.
There’s plenty of good within the Bucs new offense when it comes to play design.
There’s plenty of dangerous when it comes to play sequencing – particularly 1d choices.
Bucs are twelfth in passing epa/play on 1d. They’re twenty fifth on run epa/play on 1d. They’ve the ninth largest unfold between the 2.
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 24, 2023
The opposite think about stalling the drive is Bowles’ resolution to go for the sector aim on 4th & 2 from the Payments’ 32. I perceive going for it in that scenario could be extraordinarily aggressive (and I readily admit that I’m biased towards that pondering), however there was an excellent case to be made for the highway underdog being aggressive in that scenario.
—> TB (0) @ BUF (3) <—TB has 4th & 2 on the BUF 32, Q1 04:26
Suggestion (MEDIUM): 👉 Go for it (+1.3 WP)Precise play: 👟🏈 C.McLaughlin 50 yard discipline aim is No Good, Brief, Middle-Z.Triner, Holder-J.Camarda. pic.twitter.com/sqpS4BcatD
— 4th down resolution bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 27, 2023
Drive Three
After stopping the Payments offense with an ideal aim line stand, the Bucs offense was tasked with the tough problem of attempting to drive 99 yards for a landing. They might not accomplish that mission. To start, Tampa Bay ran for 2 yards to attempt to create some house between them and the aim line.
On second down, Mayfield had a mesh idea develop in opposition to zone that noticed Evans get open on an beneath drag. Mesh is extra of a person beater, which is what Canales most likely thought they might be dealing with. Evans was the second or third learn and in the end that triggered Baker to be late on probably getting Evans the ball. Mayfield tried to get the ball to Chase Edmonds as a checkdown, however the go felt incomplete as Edmonds had a Payments defender draped throughout him.
Whereas Evans was open, based mostly on Bakers eye development he was the 2nd or third learn and by the point he will get to Evans it’s a bit too late. Need to assume this was referred to as pondering they might get man protection and BUF dropped to zone. pic.twitter.com/niJkIc7NMn
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023
On third down, Canales dialed up an excellent play name to get Palmer behind the linebackers on an over route, however Payments linebacker Terrell Bernard made a hell of a play to deflect the go. Typically the protection simply makes an excellent play.
Main Success/Failure Factors: The primary down run was comprehensible right here. The mesh in opposition to zone is usually a net-negative attributed to Canales. The ultimate play of the drive was an excellent design and an excellent throw the place the defender simply made an ideal play.
Drive 4
Now down 10-0, the Bucs began the fourth drive at their very own 25 with back-to-back pistol runs that mix for simply 4 yards. In each situations, an offensive linemen obtained moved too far laterally into the designed gap and a few hesitation from White restricted the potential final result.
On third & 6, Canales dialed up a fantastic thing about a play. Utilizing Palmer’s velocity from the quantity two place to the fitting, he attacked a Cowl-4 look from Buffalo with a transparent route that drew each the skin nook and deep security. That left the deep exterior gap shot open for Godwin to use on a deep out from the three place.
“Siri, what does Cowl-four beater appear like?” pic.twitter.com/BH5TLClbTi
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photograph by: USA In the present day
The 31-yard acquire put the Bucs in nice discipline place on the Payments’ 40-yard line. They adopted that up with a run the place White was in a position to press a crease, discover the skin and rise up discipline for a formidable 26-yard acquire. Sadly, a holding penalty on Palmer turned 1st & 10 on the Buffalo 14 into 1st & 13 on the Buffalo 43.
A false begin on proper sort out Luke Goedeke pushed it again even additional to 1st & 18 from the 48. That’s a 34-yard swing. The subsequent play, Canales had a Cowl 3 beater dialed up that might have Mayfield hit Jarrett on a 13-yard out in opposition to a leveraged nook defending a deep third. However Jarrett was unable to return down with the go.
The subsequent play noticed Baker hit Godwin on a brief curl to get half the wanted yardage again organising a third & 9. On that play, Evans had a fast win on the line of scrimmage however Mayfield was unable to get him a clear go because of proper guard Cody Mauch permitting strain. The Bucs would end the drive with a 57-yard discipline aim.
Main Success/Failure Factors: Play design was improbable and even held again by the first & 18 scenario, Canales was in a position to dial up a number of performs to present the offense an opportunity at persevering with the drive. Again-to-back penalties had been the true drive killer right here.
Drive 5
The Bucs had been arrange in improbable place after a compelled turnover, starting their fifth drive on the Buffalo 23. Canales began the drive off with a improbable play name, working a play motion display to White that picked up 20 yards and put the workforce in a 1st & Purpose scenario.
Spoke about this a few weeks in the past on the “Audibles and Analytics” podcast with @LedyardNFLDraft that the Bucs offense may get a brand new unlock if they might incorporate their display recreation higher. Superior play-call and design by @DcoachCanales and nice execution by the gamers. pic.twitter.com/gvW77rHcCX
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023
On the very subsequent play, Mayfield hit Godwin on a fast slant that featured an excellent throw and a improbable contested catch to tie the sport at 10-all.
Add one other contested catch to his totals with this TD seize. https://t.co/1D2S5wWMAK pic.twitter.com/la56uJizfc
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023
Main Success/Failure Factors: Canales was in his bag with the play-action display go to arrange the scoring play. Execution by the offense was on level for each performs.
Drive Six
This was probably probably the most maddening offensive drive I’ve seen in fairly a while. Let me set the scene for you. The Bucs had simply allowed a landing to go down 17-10. There’s 2:40 left within the first half and the Bucs get the ball again on their very own 25-yard line. I perceive the concept of steadiness and with 160 seconds left on the clock, the Bucs’ teaching employees was seemingly pondering of how to make sure Buffalo didn’t get the ball again with ample time to attain once more.
However that aim ought to be secondary to… scoring as many factors as potential your self. So, when Canales dialed up his eighth first down run of the sport, I didn’t agree with it, however I understood it. Nonetheless, he did name it, with a small variation popping out of conventional shotgun from a extra spread-out look. The shotgun counter name labored as White discovered a crease for 15 yards to begin the drive off effectively.
#GoBucs have had blended outcomes with counter this yr, primarily because of struggles from Otton because the second puller not sealing effectively. Right here they bypass the 2nd puller for a profitable run (15 yds) additionally kudos to Otton on the ending block from the bottom. pic.twitter.com/Th9JmNkjaK
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023
The observe up was a seven-yard go to White in the fitting flat to get the ball close to midfield. Following the two-minute warning, the Bucs determined to proceed to combine their run recreation, however Mauch obtained caught off-balance coming off his double workforce attempting to take Payments’ linebacker Tyrel Dodson capturing the hole. Dodson was in a position to blow up the run for no acquire and arrange a 3rd down.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA In the present day
Mayfield hit Godwin on a fast five-yard velocity out to get the Bucs into plus-territory and a brand new set of downs. Now, be mindful additionally they allowed 40 seconds to tick off the clock earlier than they snapped the ball. The following play noticed Tampa Bay’s offense work with extra urgency getting the snap off in simply 25 seconds. After passing up his first learn on a stick idea to the left, Mayfield discovered White on a checkdown over the center for six yards. The Bucs used their second timeout of the half with 47 seconds left on the clock.
Popping out of the timeout, Goedeke dedicated one other false begin turning a 2nd & 4 right into a 2nd & 9. Payments defensive sort out Ed Oliver would blow up Mauch on a bull rush to get to Mayfield for a sack and a six-yard loss. This put the Bucs offense into a nasty spot at third & 15. Mayfield hit Otton on a verify launch beneath a Payments protection dropping everybody deep to guard the primary down. Otton was in a position to get a catch and run for 12 yards, placing the Bucs in 4th & 3 on the Buffalo 41.
This is able to have led to a 58-yard discipline aim try. The Bucs had already hit from 57 earlier within the recreation and so they lined up for the try. That try was a sham as they might not draw the Payments offsides, however reasonably than name a timeout with one second left on the play clock, Bowles elected to take a delay of recreation and punt. Bear in mind once I stated aim one when on offense ought to be to attain factors? When requested about it after the sport Bowles gave his reasoning for the plan of action as this:
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: USA In the present day
“It was an excessive amount of for a discipline aim, we had been going to take a penalty there. After which had been sitting there going for it, but when we don’t get it they’ve a discipline aim in thoughts. And with a 17-10 ballgame on the time we figured we’d nonetheless have a ballgame as an alternative of giving it away within the first half.”
Excuse me? Your kicker had beforehand hit from 57 earlier in the identical quarter so the wind circumstances had been seemingly related. And for a man who routinely preaches that he “trusts” his protection when defending different choices to not go for it on fourth down, he mainly stated, “I don’t belief my protection to cease the opposing offense from going 12 yards in 19 seconds.”
And whereas I’m on it, can we simply put to mattress the entire “I belief my protection” bit? Coaches use it on a regular basis to justify scared decision-making, however the logic is flawed and backward. When you actually belief your protection, you then shouldn’t be afraid to place them in a more difficult place within the occasion your offense is unsuccessful at changing a fourth down try. Making a choice that in impact offers your protection extra discipline to guard is just not trusting them in any respect. Please cease utilizing this cop out.
Main Success/Failure Factors: The teaching choices made all through this drive had been felony and it led to the Bucs not scoring in any respect. It was embarrassing to say the least. The play-call sequencing backed the workforce up and the pre-snap penalty on Goedeke was a backbreaker.
Bucs Offense General First Half Takeaways
Bucs RB Rachaad White and QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA In the present day
I agree with Bowles throughout his post-game presser that penalties had been probably the largest situation the workforce had on offense within the first half. They misplaced 49 yards to penalties, whereas an enormous run was worn out and three drives ended up stalling largely because of them.
Quarterback play within the first half was common to strong. Mayfield had the big-time throw to Palmer, however missed Evans for the massive acquire on the following play. The offensive line go protected very effectively as Mayfield was solely pressured a number of occasions. Stinnie and Mauch allowed a few pressures total and the road play would have supported 9 conventional runs for 56 yards had the massive gainer not been negated by Palmer’s holding penalty.
Play assemble within the passing recreation was nice and it created two explosive passes within the Godwin deep out and the White display. The play sequencing was fairly good from second down on, however was extraordinarily irritating on first downs the place they referred to as eight runs to only six passes.
For what it’s value, whereas this was probably the most success the Bucs had working the ball this season, the workforce’s anticipated factors added per play on first down runs for the primary half was -0.0106 and so they had been profitable by EPA requirements on simply 37.5% of these performs. In contrast, the workforce was profitable on 67% of their go calls within the first half on first down and had an EPA/play of +0.363.
Mayfield completed the primary half 11-of-20 for 118 yards and a landing. He had a turnover-worthy play within the over-the center go to Palmer that was deflected, and though that was an excellent resolution and an ideal play by the defender, it was an inaccurate go total. He additionally missed on the Evans deep ball however was additionally let down by the Jarrett drop. The working recreation was extra environment friendly than in weeks previous.
Throughout the NFL, groups common about two factors per drive. The Bucs fell wanting this within the first half, netting only one.67 factors per drive. However the alternatives to attain extra had been there. Higher decision-making and fewer penalties most likely get the offense 3-10 extra factors and exhibits a extra environment friendly offense.
