Fernando Tatis Jr. Needs to Get His Legs Back in Check

It’s not simple to skip a complete 12 months of one thing and are available again with the identical degree of efficiency or ability. Baseball isn’t any completely different, even for one of the best of ballplayers. Fernando Tatis Jr. missed the whole 2022 season due to wrist accidents and a suspension for utilizing efficiency enhancing medication. Whereas he was serving his suspension, he underwent labrum surgical procedure to restore a recurring problem that hampered his capability to constantly keep on the sphere. He was totally wholesome upon his return in 2023, and he remained that means for the whole season.

But, regardless of avoiding damage for the primary full season of his profession, in 2023 Tatis had his least productive 12 months on the plate. His 113 wRC+ was 41 factors under the mark he had recorded over his first three large league seasons. He additionally set profession lows in common (.257), on-base proportion (.322), slugging (.449), ISO (.191) and wOBA (.332). From a knowledge perspective, his high quality of contact took a major hit, although that isn’t all that stunning. Even after athletes return to the sphere, it takes time for them to regain their explosiveness following severe accidents and surgical procedures. Ronald Acuña Jr. is an ideal instance of that. He tore his ACL in July 2021, underwent season-ending surgical procedure, and missed Atlanta’s first 19 video games of 2022. Like Tatis final 12 months, Acuña was largely wholesome for the remainder of the season however didn’t carry out as much as his requirements. Then, after all, final 12 months he gained the NL MVP and have become the primary participant ever to hit 40 dwelling runs and steal 70 bases in a season.

Tatis will look to take the same path, however so as to take action, he’ll have to determine and tackle the foundation causes (mechanics, swing selections, and so forth.) of this large drop off. Again in September, Ben Clemens investigated how spray angle on fly balls impacts a number of the hardest hitters within the sport, Tatis being considered one of them. One of many key conclusions of Ben’s analysis is that hitters who pull their fly balls at an excessive price, akin to Isaac Paredes, don’t do extra with these batted balls; they only hit them far more often, which permits them to outproduce others on fly balls, regardless of not having the eye-popping energy that we’d assume can be the principle causal variable.

That is notable for Tatis as a result of, over his first three seasons, he hit the ball with sufficient energy to do injury on fly balls regardless of the spray angle. That was not the case final 12 months.

From 2019 by means of 2021, Tatis’ wOBA on fly balls barely outpaced his xwOBA, whereas final 12 months, he vastly underperformed his anticipated numbers. A lot of that may be defined by his pull price dropping from 30.5% over his first three seasons to 21.8% in 2023. Nevertheless, that’s not the one variable at play right here, as a result of even when he hit straightaway fly balls in these first three years, he had a .764 wOBA. That’s nicely under his .894 xwOBA, but it surely was nonetheless the third-highest mark amongst all batters from 2019–21 (min. 150 fly balls). Final season, although, Tatis completed with a .291 wOBA on straightaway fly balls, considerably decrease than his .653 xwOBA. Crushing balls to the deepest elements of the park was as soon as a Tatis superpower; in 2023, it was his kryptonite.

To raised perceive how this occurred, let’s have a look at how Tatis fared in numerous areas of the strike zone. By breaking down his efficiency in numerous zones, we’ll get a greater concept of any holes that will have developed in his swing. For all his woes final 12 months, Tatis continued to rake in opposition to left-handed pitching (152 wRC+), so I’m going to give attention to his splits vs. righties, in opposition to whom he had a profession low 101 wRC+. The desk under exhibits how Tatis carried out in opposition to pitches from righties in every third of the zone, first in 2021 after which in 2023.

There are drops throughout the board right here, however my goodness, what the heck occurred on the outer third? In 2021, Tatis ranked second in right-on-right wOBA on outer third pitches. This 12 months, when you had been a righty who may find on the outer third, Tatis would do the be just right for you.

What’s the deal? Making contact wasn’t the issue, as a result of he really whiffed much less usually in opposition to the outer third final 12 months than he did in 2021. The actual problem was his high quality of contact. On his 67 batted balls in opposition to pitches from righties on the outer third in 2021, his xwOBACON was .634. In 2023, it was .305. Ooof.

A change in swing path is usually in charge when a participant goes from destroying the outer third to hardly overlaying it in any respect. Let’s have a look at the video to determine what mechanical flaws altered his swing path. Listed below are some swings from 2021 in opposition to outer third pitches from righties.

Here’s a normal heater away with a reasonably impartial physique angle (sorry Keegan Thompson):

This one is a low and away breaking ball with a reasonably aggressive physique adjustment to get the barrel underneath the ball:

And lastly, here’s a excessive heater that wanted an upright physique adjustment:

Every of those three swings exhibits how Tatis adjusted his physique in numerous methods to get to his barrel to outer third pitches. The swings are reciprocal, athletic, and cruel. His stability with the bottom is constant regardless of the posture of his higher physique. Now let’s have a look at three swings on related pitches from 2023, beginning with one other normal middle-away heater:

Here’s a swing on a low breaking ball with a physique adjustment the place Tatis couldn’t fairly create the identical angle as he did in 2021:

Then here’s a can of corn fly ball to heart on an up and away heater the place Tatis caught it off the tip of the barrel:

OK, now for some comparability. Off the rip, it’s clear that Tatis’ stride is working in a distinct route. It’s extra impartial now than it was once. As a substitute of working from a impartial stance right into a closed stride, he’s working from an open stance right into a impartial stride. The starkest comparability is how he dealt with Thompson’s heater in 2021 versus the 2023 one we noticed from Cristian Javier. Towards Javier, it was the precise sort of pitch you’d anticipate Tatis to drill into the alternative subject hole, however his legs didn’t create sufficient house for him to get his barrel transferring within the optimum route. As a substitute of a laser reverse subject homer, it was a measly liner to left for a simple out.

In 2021, Tatis had a extra secure base, which allowed him to create a extra drastic angle together with his higher physique in opposition to the low breaking ball. That made the distinction between his line drive within the hole from 2021 and final 12 months’s line drive to the shortstop. On each of the excessive pitches, he had the tall posture he wanted to get on airplane, however in 2023, he couldn’t get his bat on the right horizontal angle to make flush contact, inflicting him to hit the ball off the tip of the bat as an alternative of the barrel.

As I at all times say, we’re searching for reciprocal actions. If he’s nonetheless kicking again aggressively however doesn’t have the motion beforehand to make the sit back clean, then he’s creating asymmetrical actions. The closed stride and clean sit back was his recipe for achievement in 2021. The logic right here is that when he strides closed, he has a extra secure connection to the bottom, main to higher positions to get his barrel on airplane.

He didn’t do this final 12 months, and because of this, he created much less house for his higher physique to cowl the outer third successfully, which sapped his manufacturing on fly balls. As a result of he was getting back from surgical procedure, it’s doable that he wasn’t comfy making the identical actions he had prior to now, although it’s onerous to consider that might be the one purpose for dropping his mechanics. In spite of everything, his surgical procedure was on his shoulder, and it is a decrease physique drawback. That mentioned, even when he knew what was incorrect, his shoulder may have restricted the quantity of additional swings he may take to repair it through the season.

Now that he’s wholesome, he ought to be capable to do the drills and cage work essential to appropriate his mechanics and return to his earlier rotational patterns.