A very powerful issue within the success of an NFL workforce will all the time be the gamers. Nevertheless, teaching does matter, particularly for fantasy soccer functions. We’ve seen a number of extremely regarded offensive coordinators turn into nice head coaches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen will get his first head teaching alternative with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’ll virtually definitely enhance the offense, however by how a lot? Let’s discover out.
Fantasy Soccer Impression of Liam Coen as Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach
The 2024 season was Coen’s first in Tampa, Fla. He instantly turned the Bucs’ offense into the most effective within the NFL. They ranked third in PFN’s Offense+ metric, an enormous leap from 2023’s Twenty second-place rating.
It’s onerous to think about the Jaguars not bettering offensively in 2025. They ranked 18th in PFN’s Offense+ metric in 2024, incomes a C- grade. The metric solely dates again to 2019, however the Jaguars have by no means earned a grade increased than C+, which got here in 2022 — the one yr they completed higher than 14th.
Jacksonville will not be with out expertise on offense. Fantasy managers must be cautiously optimistic that Coen can flip this offense right into a top-10 unit, bettering the fantasy outlooks of nearly everybody.
Trevor Lawrence
Beneath Coen’s tutelage, Baker Mayfield posted the most effective seasons in workforce historical past. He ranked eighth in EPA per play after ending simply 14th in 2023. Mayfield averaged a career-high 22.1 fantasy factors per sport, ending as the general QB4. His earlier excessive was 17.9 factors per sport in his rookie yr.
Trevor Lawrence has by no means been a persistently good quarterback. He had one of many worst rookie seasons in NFL historical past. Lawrence’s QB+ score as a rookie was a D-, however the actual story was the general rating within the database. Of 223 quarterbacks ranked, Lawrence’s rookie yr got here in at 198th. It was really horrific. After all, he additionally had arguably the worst head coach in NFL historical past directing issues, which definitely didn’t assist.
Lawrence has improved since then, however he’s nonetheless by no means finished higher than 17.9 factors per sport. However his 2022 season did earn a C+ grade in QB+, the ninth-best of the yr.
Whereas Lawrence is clearly nowhere near a high quarterback, a turnaround wouldn’t be completely unprecedented. We simply noticed Kevin O’Connell assist Sam Darnold put up a top-12 season.
Given how poorly Lawrence has performed over the primary 4 years of his profession, there’s no probability he’s costly in 2025 fantasy drafts. It wouldn’t be a complete shock if he have been this yr’s Darnold, rising from the depths of ADP to submit a QB1 season.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk
How significantly better can Brian Thomas Jr. get? Saddled with terrible QB play from Lawrence and Mac Jones, the rookie nonetheless averaged 16.7 fantasy factors per sport, ending inside the highest 12 WRs. Merely put, Thomas is superior.
To place into perspective how wonderful Thomas’ rookie yr was, look no additional than his yards per route run. Thomas averaged 2.46 yards per route run. Amongst all rookie WRs relationship again to 2011, that ranks eighth. Take a look at the gamers within the high 12 — that’s some fairly good firm.
Thomas appears like he might be elite it doesn’t matter what. If Coen can assist flip Lawrence’s profession round, Thomas has a authentic top-five upside on the place.
Whereas Thomas is clearly the primary star of the Jaguars’ offense, the place Coen can actually make his influence felt is with the WR2. In 2023, Chris Godwin had one of many worst seasons of his profession, averaging 12.3 factors per sport. What occurred? He ran simply 32% of his routes from the slot.
In 2024, Coen arrived, and his first order of enterprise was to maneuver Godwin again to the slot, the place he lined up 57% of the time. A devastating knee damage ended Godwin’s season after simply seven video games, however he was averaging a career-high 19.7 factors per sport on the time.
Early in his profession, the Cardinals misused Christian Kirk, working virtually completely on the surface. In 2022, he moved to the slot extra and had the very best season of his profession. In 2023, he had a 67% slot charge and one other stable 12.5 factors per sport season. Final yr, he was victimized by Thomas’ arrival and the poor quarterback play, however he was nonetheless within the slot 77% of the time.
Count on Coen to make the most of Kirk closely within the slot, which may propel the veteran large receiver to at the least excessive WR3 standing.
Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby
It is a harder one to determine. Coen didn’t make Bucky Irving — the rookie did that by being actually good at soccer. Any constructive influence Coen has on the operating backs will doubtless be a product of the offense bettering as an entire.
The Jaguars scored simply 32 offensive touchdowns in 2024. Nineteen of them got here by the air. Though 13 have been on the bottom, Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby mixed for less than 9.
The true challenge is expertise. Bigbsy confirmed flashes, along with his evaded-tackles-per-touch charge inside the highest 5. Nevertheless, he’s a zero within the passing sport, incomes only a 2.4% goal share, which makes him extremely reliant on touchdowns.
Etienne was stable as a receiver, incomes an 11% goal share. Sadly, that was about all he may do. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry and struggled to make defenders miss. Watching Etienne play final yr was painful.
Nevertheless, if the Bucs’ phasing-out of Rachaad White is any indication, Coen might haven’t any qualms about turning the backfield over to Bigsby and/or a free-agent signee or a rookie if Etienne continues to carry out beneath par. Suffice it to say, I’ve little or no confidence that Etienne will ever be related in fantasy once more.
Evan Engram
We noticed Cade Otton have moments of elite TE1 manufacturing final yr, however it’s onerous to say Coen had something to do with it. Mayfield leaned on Otton when Mike Evans and Godwin have been each out. In any other case, he was only a cog within the machine.
Evan Engram has way more of a observe report than Otton. He’ll all the time be a key a part of the offense — I wouldn’t anticipate Coen to simply ignore him. After an injury-plagued season restricted him to 9 video games and 9.9 factors per sport, Engram ought to rebound in 2025 — simply don’t anticipate a return to the 13.6 ppg he averaged in 2023. Someplace within the center feels about proper.
