FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 28–September 3

We’ve lastly made it to the final month of the common season, and there are nonetheless a handful of thrilling, drama-filled postseason races to carry our consideration till the playoffs start in earnest.

A reminder for the way these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most vital elements of a group — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 mix of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their protection (RAA) — and mix them to create an general group high quality metric. I additionally add in an element for “luck,” adjusting a group’s win proportion primarily based on anticipated win-loss document. The result’s an influence rating, which is then offered in tiers beneath.

Observe: All stats are by means of Sunday’s video games.

In a possible NLCS preview, the Braves and the Dodgers performed 4 drama-filled video games final weekend, with Atlanta prevailing in three of them. That sequence win all however ensures the Braves will head into the postseason with the highest seed within the Nationwide League and sure the very best document in baseball ought to they advance all the best way to the World Collection. That is likely to be placing the cart earlier than the horse, however that’s the trajectory they’ve been on all season lengthy, and something much less would possible be seen as a disappointment.

As a substitute of withering below the appreciable quantity of attrition they’ve suffered this 12 months, the Rays have continued to place stress on the Orioles within the race for the AL East crown. They’ve gone 17–9 since shedding Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgical procedure in early August and 12–6 since Wander Franco was positioned on administrative depart. They did undergo a little bit of a stumble in opposition to the Guardians final weekend, although, shedding their first sequence since August 8–10, then got here up quick in opposition to the Crimson Sox on Labor Day.

The Rangers started an enormous sequence in opposition to the Astros on Monday with an unsightly 13–6 loss. They did choose up a sequence win in opposition to the Mets early final week however simply barely averted a sweep by the hands of the Twins on Sunday with a walk-off win. Their solely saving grace throughout this poor stretch of play has been the concurrent struggles of the Mariners and Astros. Seattle misplaced its sequence in opposition to the Mets final weekend, which was barely higher than the sweep Houston suffered in opposition to the Yankees. These three groups are nonetheless separated by a single recreation atop the AL West.

The Phillies have solidified their place on the prime of the NL Wild Card race with a superb August the place they went 17–10. The motive force of the practice? Bryce Harper, who has lastly regained his energy stroke after offseason elbow surgical procedure and blasted eight residence runs in a two-week span to shut out final month. To not be outdone, Trea Turner is within the midst of a 15-game hit streak, compiling 24 hits and 10 residence runs throughout his torrid stretch. Since receiving a standing ovation on August 4, he has hit .364/.398/.764 (206 wRC+).

The Cubs had a giant week with back-to-back sequence in opposition to the Brewers and Reds, the 2 groups immediately forward of and behind them within the NL Central standings. They wound up going 4–3 with a sequence win in opposition to Milwaukee and a sequence cut up in opposition to Cincinnati that included two heartbreaking walk-off losses. Justin Steele continues to bolster his stealthy Cy Younger candidacy, and Kyle Hendricks has regained his pre-pandemic funk, whereas Cody Bellinger continues to energy the offense.

Coming into Monday, the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, and Giants had been all tied for the ultimate place within the NL Wild Card race. Miami was idle, and Arizona and Cincinnati received their video games yesterday. Sadly, San Francisco dropped its fourth straight to fall behind the tempo by a recreation. The Giants are nonetheless reeling from all of the accidents which have examined their depth, although they did activate Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford off the IL. Even with all these reinforcements, their offense is ice chilly; they’ve scored simply 4 whole runs throughout this shedding streak and have been shut out in back-to-back video games.

With the AL East properly out of attain and the Wild Card a distant pipe dream, the Yankees known as up a few their prospects final weekend to get them some priceless expertise within the massive leagues this month. Jasson Domínguez, their prime ranked prospect, homered in his first main league at-bat in opposition to Justin Verlander and added a second dinger on Sunday because the Yankees swept the Astros. The wins are too little, too late, however the standout performances from the children give New York a ray of hope throughout a misplaced season.

The Reds and Guardians had been the massive winners within the wacky waiver wire sweepstakes final week. It was a bit shocking to see the Guardians declare three pitchers; they’re thus far behind the Twins within the AL Central that their playoff odds are within the single digits. To their credit score, they made the claims after profitable a three-game set in opposition to Minnesota, then went out and received their weekend sequence in opposition to the Rays for good measure. After all, in Lucas Giolito’s debut with Cleveland on Monday, he allowed 9 runs — to the Twins no much less! — in an unsightly 20–6 defeat to begin one other essential sequence in opposition to the division chief.

Only a month after buying and selling for a handful of men within the hopes that they may salvage one other disappointing season and make the postseason with each Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout on their roster, the Angels wound up waiving 5 of these six commerce deadline acquisitions in an try and get below the luxurious tax threshold to enhance their draft place when Ohtani inevitably leaves in free company this offseason. It was a weird transfer with a cynical finish objective, made all of the extra hilarious as a result of apparently they wound up only a hair over the edge anyway. Not less than Nolan Schanuel appears to be like fairly attention-grabbing, so far as a primary base prospect could be.

Should you’re on the lookout for a group to channel its internal Wario and create essentially the most chaos for groups within the playoff hunt, look no additional than the Mets. Twenty-three of their remaining 25 video games are in opposition to groups seeking to safe a playoff spot, with their two-game sequence in opposition to the Nationals this week the one exception. They performed their position as spoiler properly final weekend, profitable two of three in opposition to the Mariners.

On the flip aspect, the Tigers have simply 9 video games with playoff implications remaining on their schedule, and three of these are in opposition to the Guardians over the past week of the season. Detroit’s kids will nonetheless get priceless improvement time as they play out the string, however a lot of the group’s video games will matter extra for draft place than the playoff aspirations of their opponents.

The Rockies even have an opportunity to play spoiler down the stretch, with 22 of their remaining 25 video games in opposition to groups with playoff hopes. They misplaced sequence to the Braves and Blue Jays final week and began a sequence with the Diamondbacks with one other loss on Monday. The place the Mets even have the expertise to really play spoiler, the Rockies appear to be a minor nuisance for these playoff-bound groups.

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