Nelson Cruz desires his ring. Since watching a World Collection slip proper over the webbing of his glove in 2011, he has performed 11 extra seasons, nicely previous his fortieth birthday, in pursuit of that final aim. On Wednesday, the 42-year-old agreed to signal on for his nineteenth main league season along with his eighth staff, heading to San Diego to hitch a enjoyable Padres staff trying to discover its manner even deeper into the playoffs after reaching its first NLCS of the twenty first century final yr. The deal, price $1 million over one yr, pending a bodily, reunites Cruz with former Rangers assistant normal supervisor A.J. Preller in addition to former teammates and Dominican countrymen Manny Machado and Juan Soto, who he’ll swimsuit up with first as normal manager-player for the Dominican World Baseball Traditional staff in March.
Cruz might simply have referred to as it a profession by this level. After establishing himself as an enormous league bat in Texas, he has loved a affluent second act as considerably of a slugging journeyman, representing 4 completely different groups within the All-Star Recreation since his age-32 season. Of his 459 profession residence runs, 382 have come since his thirtieth birthday, trailing solely Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Rafael Palmeiro, and Hank Aaron. Previous to final yr, hadn’t posted a wOBA underneath .340 or wRC+ underneath 123 in almost a decade.
Most Residence Runs in MLB Historical past, Age 30+
Participant
HR
From
To
1
Barry Bonds
503
1995
2007
2
Babe Ruth
430
1925
1935
3
Rafael Palmeiro
414
1995
2005
4
Hank Aaron
413
1964
1976
5
Nelson Cruz
382
2011
2022
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
After which got here 2022, the kind of yr that will chase most veterans into retirement. In 124 video games as the first DH for the 55-win Nationals, Cruz’s prodigious energy disappeared; his slugging proportion went from .497 to .337, his ISO dipped from .232 to .103, and his wRC+ fell from 123 to 85. Other than a 22-game stretch in late Could and early June throughout which he appeared like prime (or 38-year-old) Cruz, hitting .418/.483/.633 in 90 plate appearances, he wasn’t capable of supply a lot worth on the plate. He battled irritation in his left eye that was obscuring his imaginative and prescient, which he mentioned had been a worsening drawback for a couple of yr and a half. He was finally shut down in mid-September, however as an alternative of calling it quits, he had his eye surgically repaired and obtained again to work, most just lately alongside 2022 AL batting champ Luis Arraez.
It’s onerous to know the way a lot Cruz’s 2022 woes might be blamed on the attention problem and the way a lot has to do with him being 42 years outdated. He particularly pointed to points choosing up spin, which might have harm his potential to determine pitches and positively might have contributed to a weakened contact profile, from a 2-mph drop in common exit velocity to a four-point dip in barrel fee. He struggled mightily towards breaking pitches (.256 wOBA) and offspeed (.224). And his swinging strike proportion climbed to fifteen.0%, his highest since 2009. However these items might even have been introduced on by a traditional growing old curve and misplaced bat pace. (Statcast continues to be getting began monitoring that.) It’s price noting that his bother making onerous contact worsened comparatively rapidly over the second half of 2021 and ’22:
Whether or not Cruz has a lot left within the tank to present is the $1 million query. Regardless of his depleting onerous contact, he nonetheless ranked above the eightieth percentile in common exit velocity (84th) and HardHit% (81st) and sixtieth in Barrel%. His xwOBA of .320 was 79th amongst 130 qualifiers, and his .292 wOBA was 117th. He was fairly unfortunate when he did hit the ball onerous: on 31 barrels, he hit simply .516 with a .913 wOBA, in comparison with league averages of .728 and 1.289. In 2023, he’ll additionally count on extra probabilities towards lefties, off of whom he managed to publish a .323 wOBA and 106 wRC+ within the down yr. Steamer expects he’ll be capable of rebound to round a .316 wOBA and a 105 wRC+ — not what any playoff staff is searching for from a delegated hitter, however a superb chunk higher than what the Nats noticed in 2022.
Statistics on Barrels
Batter
BIP
EV
LA
HR%
AVG
SLG
wOBA
Nelson Cruz
31
105.7
25.6
32.3%
.516
1.677
.913
MLB Common
9,331
104.6
26.2
47.5%
.728
2.410
1.289
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Skilled hitter that he’s, Cruz additionally made an vital adjustment to his strategy in response to his points. As most of his pull-side contact was turning into rolled-over floor balls as an alternative of onerous hits, he began to make use of the entire subject, driving balls to the alternative subject at a fee of 28.6%, his highest since 2012. He hit .388 with a .378 wOBA on contact to the suitable facet, in comparison with .275 with a .319 wOBA to his pull facet. Check out the success he had going the opposite manner:
It’s onerous to think about {that a} hitter at Cruz’s age will pattern up anymore, however San Diego may even be asking a lot much less of him than did Washington, the place he hit in the course of the order nearly daily. With the Padres, he joins a deep lineup headlined by Machado, Soto, and free-agent acquisition Xander Bogaerts, quickly to be joined by one other Dominican celebrity in Fernando Tatis Jr. upon his return from a PED suspension in late April. With shortstops already at brief and third (to not point out second base in Ha-Seong Kim), Tatis will be a part of Soto and Trent Grisham within the outfield, leaving left-handed addition Matt Carpenter to share a while within the designated hitter spot with Cruz. Put it this manner: the lineup was already crowded with sufficient expertise that, previous to Cruz approaching board, the Padres have been projected to steer the majors in DH WAR per our depth charts, with Carpenter anticipated to separate many of the plate appearances with Tatis and Soto in alternatives to get the 2 younger superstars off the sphere for 9 innings. (Amusingly sufficient, by including Cruz to the combination, Padres DHs have really fallen to 3rd in projected WAR, as Tatis and Soto will probably stay at their subject positions extra.)
Although Carpenter is unlikely to repeat the 217 wRC+ he posted in 154 PA in 2022, he and Cruz might make for a threatening mixture from the designated hitter spot. They gained’t be a real platoon; even after Tatis returns, Carpenter will probably spend a while within the nook outfield spots and at first, and others will take some days at DH to get off their ft. However the Padres simply may need sufficient positional versatility to hold on to an growing old designated hitter who tasks to get round 300 PA, and for $1 million, it’s hardly a high-risk transfer. Contemplating the impression Cruz can have as a veteran chief and pseudo-assistant hitting coach in a clubhouse whose younger stars already look as much as him, it appears nicely price Preller’s pocket change to convey him into this group and provides him a shot to go away the sport a champion.