Elly De La Cruz Impresses in Cincinnati Debut

The prospect ranks are as excessive as an elephant’s eye at Castellini Farms. The Reds could have entered this rebuilding cycle with all of the grace of an indignant cat making an attempt to get a cereal field off its head (versus the awkward toe-dipping of the final go-around), however by means of trades and their very own scouting, they’ve amassed a formidable quantity of expertise within the minors. By our in-progress farm system rankings, solely the Baltimore Orioles place increased for the 2023 season. Imply ol’ Grandpa ZiPS agrees; the Reds had seven prospects on the preseason ZiPS High 100, a complete that trailed solely the Guardians and the O’s. Baltimore and Cincinnati mixed appear to have about 80% of the shortstop prospects in baseball.

Whether or not you go by human or machine, no Pink ranked extra extremely this winter than Elly De La Cruz, who was no. 6 (60 FV) on the prospect crew’s High 100 and no. 15 on the ZiPS listing. After a formidable 2021 full-season debut, De La Cruz cranked issues up a notch in 2022, hitting 28 homers and slugging .586 mixed throughout Excessive- and Double-A regardless of solely being 20 years previous. Questions nonetheless stay about his long-term defensive place, however his bat has proved to be much more potent for Triple-A Louisville, as he hit 12 residence runs in a mere 38 video games and is already two-thirds of the way in which to final yr’s stroll whole. He’s answerable for the Worldwide League’s ERA going up by practically half a run a recreation from 2022! OK, I made that final bit up, however you needed to really give it some thought for a full second earlier than you smelled burning khaki.

In his large league debut (batting cleanup!), De La Cruz had alternative to indicate off his capability to hit baseballs very, very onerous. Within the third inning, he crushed a excessive pitch from Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin as if he have been channelling Lori Petty, sending the Cat Man’s fastball screaming into the outfield at a spicy 112 mph, leading to a double for his first main league hit:

He put another ball in play, a groundout to Miguel Vargas; the 109 mph worm-burner was hit onerous sufficient that the digicam work went proper from the crack of the bat to the ball in Vargas’ glove. And lest you suppose his debut was solely about uncooked energy, he drew two of the three walks Gonsolin allowed on Tuesday evening. Evan Phillips spoiled the enjoyable afterward, getting De La Cruz to strikeout wanting with a sweeper on the underside outdoors nook.

And sure, this was no extra a fluke than his minor league numbers have been. De La Cruz’s time with the Louisville Bats featured a median exit velocity of 93.4 mph and a 55% hard-hit share by StatCast’s reckoning. Now, there are nonetheless areas the place he can enhance offensively — for instance, his 69% contact price in Triple-A was on the low facet — however one should bear in mind he’s nonetheless a 21-year-old participant who has rocketed by means of the minors, with little time to hold round and consolidate his positive aspects. He’s additionally taking part in as quick as marketed, and provides the Reds a very good shot to have their first 30/30 participant since Brandon Phillips in 2007. The opposite two Reds in that individual membership are Barry Larkin and Eric Davis, who have been additionally fairly good as you could recall. Particularly with the league’s stolen base growth, a 40-40 season isn’t unimaginable as an upside situation except he actually goes full Ellraiser.

As you would possibly guess, the already sunny ZiPS projections for De La Cruz have gotten even sunnier after his extraordinarily profitable stint on the highest degree within the minors. ZiPS interprets his 2023 thus far at .271/.340/.488, a pleasant little uptick from final yr’s .276/.314/.448 (the 2023 translations takes modifications in league offense within the minors under consideration):

Repeating the methodology I used for the ZiPS High 100 Prospects getting into the season, this is able to transfer De La Cruz as much as third within the prospect rankings, behind Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson. These projections have Cruz at third, however his projections at quick at practically similar WAR-wise, so both is an affordable chance from the projection POV.

With Matt McLain, a ZiPS favourite, having a torrid debut himself, Cincy has already made two de facto “acquisitions” which may be nearly as good as any that one other crew within the NL Central makes this yr. And so they’re not the one ones. The Reds cleared the way in which for Spencer Steer to get an prolonged shot within the majors from Opening Day and Andrew Abbott, a 2021 draft decide who was our no. 90 prospect earlier than the season (no. 130 in ZiPS) had an enormous begin within the excessive minors. He earned a promotion and threw six scoreless innings (and practically 5 hitless) in his debut.

In a division the place the Cardinals have dug themselves a gap from which extrication could show troublesome, the Reds have increased playoff hopes than they’ve any proper to at this level within the rebuild. Going into the season, ZiPS pegged them with a 2% likelihood of constructing the playoffs, with the belief that the Reds wouldn’t be overly aggressive with their high prospects. However McLain was up by mid-Might and De La Cruz has an amazing shot at grabbing an ironclad lock on at the very least the third base job earlier than the All-Star Break. As of Wednesday morning, ZiPS has the Reds at 9% to make the playoffs — nonetheless an extended shot, however concerning the odds of an Aaron Choose homer in any given plate look and no one’s precisely shocked when that occurs.

And De La Cruz isn’t the top of it. That vanquisher of William Van Landingham and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, is hitting .352/.408/.716 in Louisville; ZiPS tasks that the Reds would hit 11% playoff odds in the event that they merely made him the beginning first baseman proper now. Now, Joey Votto’s eventual return would possibly spoil that chance, however there are sufficient weak spots within the lineup that the Reds might get artistic. And the crew could must. It’s stunning, however the lineup may very well have a expertise crunch within the close to future that can require some imaginative pondering to handle. Jonathan India has had a pleasant little bounce-back season thus far, so the additional shortstop prospect(s) are unlikely to discover a short-term residence there, and DH isn’t an amazing possibility except the Reds give Tyler Stephenson far more time behind the plate. And whereas Wil Myers is ripe for a DFAing after he returns, Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl have finished greater than was ever requested of them getting into the season. Who would have thought the Reds can be plagued with the horrible illness of “an excessive amount of awesomeness” this rapidly?

The Reds’ tepid method to competition in 2021 could have understandably sapped many a Cincy fan’s love for the crew. Possession actually isn’t doing its greatest to win again that affection, however the Reds’ younger expertise could. The followers certain appeared to get pleasure from final evening’s walk-off:

There are extra compelling causes to move over to Nice American Ball Park than there seemed to be a yr in the past, and Elly De La Cruz is an enormous a part of that.