As basketball followers and media members, we love to seek out patterns to make ourselves really feel higher about gamers and groups that we take pleasure in watching. It doesn’t matter what yr it’s; all of us have biases within the basketball world. Whether or not it’s to show some extent you made all through the season or simply since you’re an excellent fan, you’ll seek out each final iota of statistical info you possibly can to just be sure you had been proper! It’s a bit annoying and heck, I’m normally a type of individuals scouring superior stats for that type of information.
The brand new narrative rolling round NBA Twitter, in addition to an extremely loud MVP race dialog, is this concept of ending a season “robust.” Apparently, to win the NBA title, you merely HAVE to shut out a season in type. It’s by no means made sense to me both, so I made a decision to truly look and see if that is true.
Do you could end a season sizzling to win the NBA title? I’m maintaining this strictly top-line, no pick-me superior stats to suit a distinct segment argument, no unimaginable deep dives into accidents, we’re maintaining this within the win-loss column since apparently, that’s all that issues. All of the data we’ll be at the moment are over the ultimate 23 video games or so from the All-Star break to the tip of the season. Clearly, on account of COVID and its results on the schedule, we’ll need to be a bit versatile as we progress, however I feel all of us perceive the context.
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2017-2018 Finals2018 Warriors: 14-102018 Cavaliers: 16-7
Let’s begin with the final version of the LeBron vs. Steph rivalry. The 2017-2018 Warriors had been checked out as the most effective rosters ever assembled. Hell, their preseason championship odds had been -187, an objectively hilarious factor to take a look at! They completed the season 14-10 and contemplating they completed the season 58-24, these 10 losses had been a reasonably huge chunk of their complete season losses. They really ended up ending 2nd within the West regardless of having the perfect offense within the NBA averaging 113.5 PPG. (Aspect observe, unimaginable that the most effective rosters ever averaged 113.5 PPG simply 5 years in the past and now the 2023 Celtics common 117.5 PPG and that’s good for 4th! Basketball is enjoyable.) The Dubs truly closed the season shedding 3 of 4. I promised no DEEP dives on accidents, however sure, Steph Curry was injured to shut the season. Good factor the Warriors nonetheless had KEVIN DURANT, KLAY THOMPSON, AND DRAYMOND GREEN. Goodness, what a roster. The Cavs had been the other. Closed the season wholesome and in type. They gained 6 of 8 to shut the yr however completed 4th within the East at 50-32. Conclusion? How both of those groups closed didn’t actually matter. The Warriors nonetheless swept the Cavs. Let’s leap to a yr with out an obscene tremendous crew.
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2018-2019 Finals2019 Warriors 16-92019 Raptors 15-8
Simply kidding, yet another tremendous crew. Each groups within the Finals closed the common season nicely, however not in legendary trend. Kawhi had actually began to kick issues into excessive gear, a number of the field scores he was placing up down the stretch had been unimaginable, I recommend the hardcore basketball followers go shuffle by means of Basketball Reference for a bit. The Warriors had been totally wholesome heading into the playoffs, their beginning 5 of Steph-Klay-Durant-Draymond-Cousins was rolling till…they misplaced Video games 2 and 5 to the 8-seed Clippers as Danilo Gallinari lit them up with 24 and 26 factors respectively. Shout out to Lou Williams with 36 in Recreation 2 and 33 in Recreation 5 off the bench. Common season momentum is nice till the Italian Dream will get a maintain of you, then all bets are off. On a critical observe, this season is an efficient instance of how completely different the playoffs are from the common season. The Warriors had been enjoying nice till KD went down after which rapidly, how they closed the common season didn’t imply something. Heck, even the Raptors with their insanely sizzling finish to the season, misplaced their first playoff sport to the Orlando Magic! At dwelling! Keep in mind the D.J. Augustin sport?! Anyway, we’re shedding focus, let’s head to, gulp, the bubble.
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2019-2020 Finals2020 Lakers 2-52020 Warmth: 3-5
I’m not going to spend a ton of time on this season for apparent causes. It needs to be talked about that the Lakers had been on an absolute tear coming off the All-Star break earlier than the world shut down. They had been 8-2, #1 seed within the West, clearly the perfect crew in basketball on the time, however they did type of stink throughout these few bizarre bubble common season video games. The Warmth had been fairly mid within the common season that yr, they completed 44-29, so not a ton to take from something this season. Rattling you COVID.
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2020-2021 Finals2021 Bucks 14-92021 Suns: 16-7
Solely asterisk on this season is the dearth of an All-Star break, so I simply took the final 23-24 video games for every crew. Once more, as you possibly can see, nothing actually legendary happening right here. The Bucks completed the season 46-26, good for third within the East. Suns, 51-21, and 2nd within the West. Even within the playoffs, these groups weren’t essentially essentially the most dominant. The Bucks had been 16-7 within the playoffs, Suns completed 14-8, nearly a swap of their end-of-season data. What each groups undoubtedly had in widespread had been their stars dominating within the playoffs. Giannis-Middleton-Jrue was an unimaginable trio, particularly once they hit the Finals. Identical factor for Booker-Paul-Ayton, they had been sensational within the collection sweep towards Denver in Spherical 2. Nonetheless, goes to point out that whereas ending robust is sweet, you need to flip that swap come playoff time otherwise you’re going nowhere.
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2021-2022 Finals2022 Warriors 11-122022 Celtics 17-5
It needs to be talked about, once more, that Steph Curry missed the final 13 video games of the season, however the Warriors went 6-7 in these video games. Earlier than that, they had been 5-5 with him, so not an enormous distinction. On the opposite aspect, I don’t suppose I have to spend too lengthy on CelticsBlog speaking about how 2022 Celtics closed out the season. It was one thing actually particular and carried into the playoffs fairly nicely, however sadly, they bought Steph Curry’d and that was that. This can be a fairly obscene instance, however kind of ironic Celtics followers have been up in arms concerning the crew ending the season, but then one which beat them within the Finals final yr completed final yr 11-12. Bought to like basketball.
all the information and the data above, I feel we will safely say that whilst you’d clearly wish to win as many video games as potential to shut out a season, it actually doesn’t have a real affect in your postseason efficiency. In case your famous person goes supernova, your common season document doesn’t matter, they’ll get you to the very prime. Whether or not it’s Kawhi, Steph, Giannis, whoever, they are going to get you to the promise land with an ideal playoff run. Tatum and Brown did it final season earlier than falling to the PG legend, I feel the identical expectations apply. When the common season ends and the playoffs begin, your stars need to go up one other degree. Interval.
