Dodgers Land Their Impact Starter in Jack Flaherty

Final week, when the Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for project, common supervisor Brandon Gomes spoke of the group focusing on “an impact-type arm” forward of the commerce deadline. Gomes and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hit their goal shortly earlier than the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Tuesday, touchdown Tigers righty Jack Flaherty in alternate for a pair of prospects. Individually, the Dodgers additionally fortified their outfield depth by buying Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays for lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

For all of the speak concerning the top-of-the-line starters who could possibly be moved earlier than the deadline, essentially the most mentioned ones apart from Flaherty — the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the Giants’ Blake Snell, and the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet — all stayed put, making the Dodgers’ addition of the 28-year-old Flaherty really feel that rather more impactful. To accumulate the Los Angeles native — who was traded on deadline day for the second 12 months in a row, after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Orioles final August 1 — the Dodgers parted with 21-year-old catcher Thayron Liranzo and 24-year-old shortstop Trey Sweeney.

After years of accidents capped by a subpar marketing campaign that included the aforementioned change of deal with, Flaherty is within the midst of his finest season in half a decade. As a result of he’s skipped a few turns because of injections of painkillers (not cortisone) to handle recurrent decrease again ache (one on June 10, the second on July 2) after which had Monday’s flip scratched in anticipation of his being dealt, his 106.2 innings is 1.1 in need of the brink to qualify for the ERA title, however his numbers are spectacular. Amongst AL pitchers with at the least 100 innings, he ranks seventh with a 2.95 ERA and sixth with a 3.11 FIP. Amongst all AL pitchers, he’s tied for eleventh with 2.5 WAR, and among the many pitchers traded this month, he’s second solely to the extra contact-oriented Erick Fedde (2.7). Flaherty’s numbers are an enormous enchancment from final 12 months’s 4.96 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 144.1 innings. Whereas placing up a 6.75 ERA post-trade, he was bumped from the Orioles’ rotation in mid-September and completed the season within the bullpen.

The foremost optimistic for Flaherty’s 2023 season was his well being. His 27 begins had been his most in a season since 2019; he totaled simply 32 from 2020–22 because of the pandemic-shortened season, an indirect pressure, and recurrent shoulder woes, which mixed to ship him to the 60-day injured listing thrice in that span. That higher well being — and a few post-trade enchancment of his fastball, albeit along with his slider and curve regressing considerably — helped him internet a one-year, $14 million deal from the Tigers, with one other $1 million doable through efficiency bonuses ($250,000 apiece for reaching 26 and 28 begins, $500,000 for reaching 30).

As I famous once I checked in on Flaherty about six weeks in the past, essentially the most shocking side of his efficiency is his career-high 32% strikeout fee, second solely to Crochet amongst AL pitchers with 100 innings. It’s 2.1 share factors forward of his earlier private finest, set in 2019, and 9.2 factors forward of final 12 months’s mark, making it the majors’ largest year-to-year bounce:

Along with bettering his strikeout fee, Flaherty is producing a 43% groundball fee, his highest since his 2017 rookie marketing campaign. As I’ve famous earlier than, I’m a giant fan of that combo; just a few years in the past, whereas writing about Luis Castillo, I tapped into our then-new “Plus Stats” — particularly our league-indexed strikeout and groundball charges — to provide one thing referred to as KGB+, a junk stat that shines a light-weight on pitchers who mix strikeouts and groundballs. That’s typically an excellent technique for fulfillment, if not the one route there. Flaherty is at present seventh within the majors by that measure:

Flaherty’s revival owes loads to the offseason work he did with Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant pitching coach Robin Lund, who helped him clear up his mechanics, bettering his capability to repeat his supply by specializing in his posterior gluteal muscle groups and hamstrings as a substitute of his quadriceps. As he advised the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in Might, “It’s allowed me to have a bit bit higher velo and keep behind the ball and be a bit bit extra true on my heater… after which have the ability to repeat my slider again and again and throw it a bit bit tougher. I can simply really feel the sharpness of it when it leaves my hand, which is one thing final 12 months I didn’t actually really feel.”

Underneath the path of his new coaches, Flaherty additionally adjusted the grip of his slider and ditched the cutter he threw 9.1% of the time final 12 months in favor of extra four-seamers and sliders. He’s additionally elevated the common velocity of his four-seamer by 0.4 mph (from 93.1 to 93.5) and of his slider by 0.6 mph (from 84.2 to 84.8). He’s getting a bit extra journey and extra break on the fastball, however a bit much less motion in each planes on the slider. Relative to final 12 months, he’s lowered the wOBA towards his fastball by 68 factors and towards his two breaking pitches by 111 factors. He’s producing whiff charges of 38.9% through his slider and 44.0% along with his knuckle curve, and he’s been far more efficient towards each lefties (a drop in wOBA from .372 to .264) and righties (from .337 to .279).

In coming to the Dodgers, Flaherty joins a rotation that’s in appreciable flux. Throughout the previous week, they’ve DFA’d after which traded Paxton to the Crimson Sox, and activated each Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw from the injured listing; the previous had missed 18 days because of decrease again tightness, whereas the latter hadn’t pitched since present process offseason shoulder surgical procedure. Throughout that very same week-long span, rookies Gavin Stone (the workers savior because of his 3.34 ERA and three.82 FIP), Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and River Ryan have all taken turns, however Knack has already been optioned, and he gained’t be the final one. The hope is that in some unspecified time in the future in mid-August or later, Yoshinobu Yamamoto can return from a rotator cuff pressure that’s sidelined him since June 15, and that Bobby Miller and/or Walker Buehler, each of whom had been optioned after post-injury struggles, will help as nicely. Should you’re sensing that the Dodgers have depth for days, you’re proper. Finding out who will begin for them in a postseason sequence is likely one of the most important duties forward for manger Dave Roberts.

All of that pitching made Yarbrough expendable, however since being acquired from the Royals at the least 12 months’s deadline, the soft-tossing 32-year-old southpaw had served the Dodgers moderately nicely in a multi-inning reduction function; this 12 months, he’s pitched to a 3.74 ERA and 5.15 FIP in 32 appearances totaling 67.1 innings. He’ll be a part of a Blue Jays squad that has been stripped for components prior to now week. The group has traded nearly every little thing in Toronto that wasn’t nailed down, together with starter Yusei Kikuchi, relievers Yimi García, Nate Pearson, and Trevor Richards, catcher Danny Jansen, first baseman/DH Justin Turner, utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Kiermaier.

A four-time Gold Glove winner (and 2015 Platinum Glove winner), Kiermaier is now 34 years outdated and heading into the house stretch of his profession, as he introduced final week that he would retire at season’s finish. He stays an distinctive defender; in simply 549.1 innings in heart subject, he’s collected 9 DRS (tied for fourth within the majors, one run behind his now-former teammate Daulton Varsho) and eight FRV (tied for fifth). He’s clearly a greater defender than the Dodgers’ incumbent heart fielder, rookie Andy Pages (-8 DRS, -1.6 UZR, -1 FRV), however the 23-year-old Pages has hit a relatively strong .244/.297/.378 (92 wRC+), whereas Kiermaier has not hit a lick. His strikeout fee has spiked to a career-high 30.4%, his xSLG has dropped to a Statcast-era low of .277, and his 53 wRC+ (.195/.236/.310) is the seventh lowest amongst gamers with at the least 200 PA. He’ll must battle for enjoying time in an outfield that would quickly be additional crowded by Tommy Edman, who was acquired from the Cardinals on Monday and who may also play heart as soon as he returns from a rehab project, although he’s extra prone to be deployed within the center infield.

As for the 2 prospects the Dodgers despatched to the Tigers, Liranzo is a 50-FV prospect who ranked fifth on the Dodgers’ up to date listing and 73rd on our up to date Prime 100 on the time of the commerce, whereas Sweeney is a 40-FV prospect who ranked twenty fourth on the Dodgers listing. Taking part in at Excessive-A Nice Lakes, the place he’s hit .220/.344/.356 (106 wRC+), the switch-hitting Liranzo — a 2021 signing out of the Dominican Republic, with a $30,000 bonus — has break up his time between catching (44 video games), first base (24 video games), and DH (six video games). His future at catcher is murky, as he’s bought a below-average arm. In Liranzo’s prospect capsule on The Board, Eric Longenhagen had this to say:

When he can really get a throw to the bag off, his Patrick Bailey-style sidearm launch works okay, however he so typically botches or fumbles his alternate that he doesn’t give himself an opportunity to get the runner. Liranzo principally makes use of a conventional crouch when receiving and is a below-average framer and ball-blocker. Each these abilities are extra tenable and inside the vary of huge league viability than his arm, however at Liranzo’s measurement and age, it’s no assure they’ll keep that means.

Regardless of that modest slash line, Longenhagen is extra sanguine concerning the 6-foot-3, 195-pound Liranzo’s bat:

There may be big switch-hitting energy right here — Liranzo hit 24 bombs within the Cal League, hit a ball 114 mph, and had a 48% hard-hit fee final 12 months. He can hit for energy from the left facet even when he isn’t taking his finest swing, and he’s harmful from the precise facet despite the fact that he makes use of tremendous conservative footwork, producing every little thing with a shift in his weight and the energy of his palms. Liranzo doesn’t have nice really feel for the barrel, which is typical for a younger a switch-hitter, not to mention considered one of atypical measurement. His 65% contact fee is beneath the brink of any 2023 huge league first baseman… so there’s substantial Quad-A threat right here if Liranzo can’t catch.

As for Sweeney, he was drafted by the Yankees out of Japanese Illinois College in 2021, because the twentieth general choose, then dealt to the Dodgers in a roster crunch-driven commerce that despatched Jorbit Vivas and Victor González to New York. At Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, the 6-foot-3, 212-pound Sweeney has hit .255/.334/.427 with 13 homers and 16 steals; through Statcast, he’s produced a 90.6 mph common exit velocity with a 7.7% barrel fee and a 44.3% hard-hit fee, with so many balls on the bottom (46% fee) that all of it interprets to only a .356 xSLG. Sweeney’s finest software is his 55-grade uncooked energy, however his different instruments grade out as 40s, with a possible 45 for his sport energy and 50 for his hit software. In up to date notes he offered me on Tuesday, right here’s what Longenhagen wrote:

Sweeney appears tremendous at brief. The Dodgers place him such that he barely ever has to make a play to his backhand, and he’s always transferring from proper to left towards first base when he throws, which he appears most snug with. He appears like an acceptable match at shortstop regardless of his measurement. On offense, Sweeney’s bat path causes his in-game energy to minimize. His entrance facet is excessive by way of contact and he tends to chop down on the baseball. He’s going to provide sport energy beneath his uncooked barring some type of swing change. That may restrict his ceiling and sure stop Sweeney from being thought of a real on a regular basis possibility at brief, however he must be a second-division common or good utility man.

For a deadline brief on affect strikes, the Dodgers made what arguably stands as the largest one, at the least from a pitching standpoint. Wholesome and efficient, Flaherty is an enormous improve on Paxton, and he is likely to be the Dodgers’ second-best starter behind Glasnow heading into October except Kershaw or Yamamoto can summon their pre-injury type. To get him, the group parted with two gamers who doubtless have main league futures, together with one of many few Prime-100 prospects traded this month in Liranzo. However the Dodgers’ system is especially deep at catcher, with 50-FV prospect Dalton Dashing at Double-A Tulsa and 45-FV prospect Diego Cartaya at Oklahoma Metropolis, and neither of them goes to supplant Will Smith anytime quickly. The Dodgers will hardly miss these guys, significantly if all of it pays off with a championship.