For the reason that Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel left them feeling burned for the primary two seasons of the contract, possession and the entrance workplace have eschewed spending on the bullpen. Fairly than put money into high-priced reduction choices in free company, the Cubs have unfold out their bullpen investments over a collection of small-scale additions, both on low-cost one-year offers or on minor league free brokers. At occasions, they’ve had nice success with the technique (e.g. Andrew Chafin, David Robertson). Others haven’t gone so properly (e.g. Brad Boxberger, Brandon Workman). They haven’t been burned by any huge reduction pitching commitments since Kimbrel, however in addition they have usually sat out on the highest names in the marketplace.
The deserves of the technique may be debated advert nauseum. On the one hand, it’s unequivocally a great factor to keep away from being encumbered by any burdensome multi-year offers for relievers. On the opposite, the Cubs have the monetary assets and payroll capability to take such dangers and stand up to the missteps greater than lots of their smaller-payroll rivals. By steering clear of pricey, multi-year commitments they’ve additionally bypassed quite a lot of high quality reduction choices whereas trotting out bullpens with ERAs of 4.39 (2021), 4.12 (2022) and 4.01 (2023). Since 2021, Cubs relievers rank twentieth in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.
It’s not so simple as stating, “You get what you pay for,” as participant improvement performs an unlimited position; the Guardians, for example, have the second-best bullpen ERA prior to now three years (3.30) regardless of signing only one reliever (Bryan Shaw) as a Main League free agent.
Counting on low-cost bullpen additions will increase the significance of creating in-house relievers — which the Cubs haven’t finished all that properly — or putting it huge in minor league free company, the place groups can probably land a number of years of an efficient reliever who’s not but burned by means of his arbitration seasons. The Cubs’ lack of huge investments and lack of improvement from the farm makes their greatest rating in minor league free company all of the extra vital.
Mark Leiter Jr. has been nothing in need of a godsend at Wrigley Subject.
A Twenty second-round decide by the Phillies again in 2013, Leiter (clearly) comes from a prolific baseball household. His father, Mark Sr., loved an 11-year huge league profession. His uncle, Al, is a two-time All-Star and two-time World Collection champion who pitched in 19 Main League seasons. Leiter Jr.’s cousin, Jack, was the No. 2 general decide within the 2021 draft.
Simply two years in the past, Leiter Jr. seemed to be a footnote within the Leiter household baseball lineage. He didn’t pitch within the Majors from 2019-21, regardless of strong numbers with the Tigers’ higher minors associates in ’21. When he quietly joined the Cubs on a minor league deal throughout MLB’s lockout — minor league free company for gamers who didn’t end the prior season on a 40-man roster or MLB injured listing nonetheless continued in the course of the stoppage — few thought a lot of it. Leiter regarded like minor league depth and little greater than that.
Maybe that was how the Cubs noticed issues, too. Leiter didn’t break camp with the crew in 2022 and was solely summoned to the massive leagues as a spot starter in mid-April. He began three video games for the Cubs, yielded 9 runs in 9 1/3 innings, and was optioned again to Triple-A Iowa. Over the subsequent couple months, he was optioned forwards and backwards just a few completely different occasions, ultimately shifting right into a full-time bullpen position.
For a lot of the season, Leiter was a nondescript swingman on a non-contending Cubs membership. Trades of Scott Effross, David Robertson, Chris Martin and Mychal Givens, nonetheless, opened sufficient area within the bullpen for the Cubs to name Leiter again to the massive leagues and stick him within the bullpen for good. The outcomes have been glorious. Though he carried a 5.35 ERA into final 12 months’s All-Star break, Leiter was summoned to the Majors on July 30 and dominated within the season’s remaining two months: 29 innings, 2.17 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 27.4% strikeout price, 9.4% stroll price, 50% ground-ball price, three saves, 4 holds.
Even with that huge end to the season, nonetheless, Leiter didn’t stick on the Cubs’ 40-man roster all winter. Chicago held onto Leiter into January however in the end selected to designate him for task as a way to open a roster spot for Eric Hosmer (who’d ultimately be launched in June).
Maybe it was Leiter’s lack of an influence fastball, his spotty observe report, his standing as an out-of-options pitcher, or the truth that most golf equipment had already crammed their 40-man rosters by mid-January and didn’t need to alter — regardless of the purpose, Leiter cleared waivers. He elected free company and re-signed with the Cubs lower than two weeks later. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, supervisor David Ross and the remainder of the Cubs brass need to be thrilled with that end result.
This time round, Leiter wound up breaking camp with the crew — and it’s exhausting to think about the place they’d be with out him. In 36 2/3 innings, Leiter carries a 3.19 ERA with a career-high 34.7% strikeout price in opposition to a tidy 8.0% stroll price. He’s saved the ball on the bottom at a robust 48.8% clip, allowed simply three house runs (0.74 HR/9), picked up three extra saves and piled up 13 holds. The Cubs have been hoping that offseason signees like Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer might maintain down late-inning roles, nevertheless it’s been Leiter who’s stepped up because the crew’s most dependable setup man.
Leiter doesn’t throw exhausting, averaging simply 91.8 mph on his heater, however each his four-seamer and sinker take a backseat to his splitter anyhow. It’s a tumbling providing that opponents have hammered into the bottom at a 52.9% clip… once they put the ball in play. Leiter carries a mammoth 49.2% whiff price on the splitter, which is a large purpose that opponents are batting simply .088/.186/.132 within the 102 plate appearances he’s ended with that pitch. Unsurprisingly, after throwing the pitch at a 22.7% clip final 12 months (per Statcast), he’s ramped that utilization price as much as 35.8% in 2023. It’s now his most-used pitch.
He’s had some tough outings not too long ago, permitting a complete of 4 runs in his previous three innings, however the general outcomes this season have nonetheless been glorious. In reality, relationship again to July 30 of final season, when Leiter was known as to the massive leagues for good, he’s now sporting a 2.74 ERA, 31.5% strikeout price, 8.6% stroll price, 49.3% grounder price and 0.69 HR/9 mark. Leiter has been proof that not all high-leverage arms have to characteristic triple-digit fireballs that blow opponents out of their socks.
Cubs administration absolutely hopes the crew can come firing out of the gates and play its approach again into rivalry. The Cubs’ schedule popping out of the break, in any case, isn’t precisely formidable. They’ll kick issues off with three in opposition to the Crimson Sox earlier than enjoying their subsequent 13 video games in opposition to the Nationals, Cardinals and White Sox — three of the worst groups within the Majors this season. It’s fairly attainable the Cubs can certainly climb again into the division race.
If, nonetheless, the Cubs proceed to flounder and/or the Reds and Brewers draw back, Leiter is probably going to attract some commerce curiosity. Usually, a pitcher with greater than three years of membership management wouldn’t be a commerce candidate for a crew just like the Cubs, who if not this 12 months hope to contend in 2024. However Leiter is 32 — 33 subsequent March — and solely got here to them on a minor league deal. If one other membership is keen to surrender some precise prospect worth, it’d be exhausting to not give critical consideration to the state of affairs.
Leiter’s emergence is a feel-good story — a Twenty second-round decide that was by no means a prime prospect regardless of coming from a high-profile baseball household, he held on when his profession regarded misplaced, clawed again to the massive leagues in his 30s and now finds himself as a helpful arm in an enormous league bullpen. Greater than that, nonetheless, his emergence might put the Cubs in a quandary — in the event that they’re not capable of flip their fortunes. Cling onto a high quality reliever for his remaining three years of crew management, or promote excessive and commerce a 32-year-old who’s successfully “discovered cash” for them when he’s at peak worth? These are the sorts of choices the Cubs will face over the subsequent few weeks, making their quick efficiency following the deadline a very vital part of this 12 months’s deadline season.
