As a rookie, Inexperienced Bay Packers WR Christian Watson proved each bit able to being a beginning extensive receiver within the NFL. Fantasy soccer managers have taken discover, projecting a large improve in productiveness getting into his second season. However is the hype overblown? May Watson wrestle with life after Aaron Rodgers and fall out out of the top-24 fantasy WRs?
Christian Watson Already Has a High-24 ADP
As a rookie, Watson was spectacular. He caught 41 passes for 611 yards and 7 touchdowns. Surpassing 500 receiving yards bodes properly for Watson’s future success, however he nonetheless averaged simply 11.7 PPR fantasy factors per recreation, ending because the WR32. He did that with a totally unsustainable 17% landing charge.
The TD charge will undoubtedly come down, however the quantity will go up. As a rookie, Watson noticed only a 15.2% goal share. However with Allen Lazard gone, Watson is locked in because the Packers’ WR1 and an excellent wager to guide the staff in targets.
Watson’s WR19 ADP is baking in a ton of development. Final 12 months’s WR32 is just not solely projected to complete high 24 however anticipated to. As is the case in fashionable fantasy soccer, it’s far tougher than it was once to draft gamers forward of breakouts — you need to pay for them prematurely.
Christian Watson Comes With a Truthful Quantity of Threat in 2023
Issues are a lot totally different in 2023 than they had been in 2022. For starters, Rodgers is gone, changed by Jordan Love, who’s getting into his fourth season however has began only one NFL recreation.
We have now no means of realizing how Watson will mesh with Love. We additionally don’t know if Love will likely be any good. There’s a really actual likelihood this offense is an outright catastrophe, scoring fewer than 35 whole touchdowns.
My projections have Love throwing 25 touchdowns. I’ve bought Watson accounting for 7.8 of them with a 22% goal share. General, he got here out to the WR22, averaging 14.1 ppg.
Primarily based on my projections, Watson is teetering on the sting of being a top-24 WR. It wouldn’t take a lot for him to fall out of WR2 vary completely.
Final season, Watson’s 13.8 common depth of goal and a couple of.4 yards per route run was twelfth within the NFL. With extra quantity, his effectivity is more likely to drop.
There’s additionally the aforementioned touchdowns difficulty. I challenge Watson scoring primarily the identical quantity of touchdowns on practically double the quantity. However he may simply be a man who at all times overperforms within the TD division. In spite of everything, he’s 6’4″ with elite athleticism. Nonetheless, if he’s not, Watson might want to not less than keep a league-average landing charge to be a top-24 extensive receiver.
Then, there’s the matter of the Packers’ WR depth chart. Inexperienced Bay spent a second-round decide on Jayden Reed, and so they nonetheless have Romeo Doubs, who performed forward of Watson to open the 2022 season. I’m not saying I believe both Reed or Doubs is healthier than Watson, however it’s actually inside their vary of outcomes to overhaul him.
How Seemingly Is Watson To End Outdoors the High-24 WRs This Season?
It’s very simple to color the image the place Watson fails to ascertain himself because the Packers’ WR1 and finally ends up being a major bust relative to his ADP, falling out of the top-24 WRs.
If he solely sees one thing like an 18% goal share and the Packers throw the ball lower than anticipated, Watson could have a troublesome time returning worth.
With that stated, sophomore extensive receivers are traditionally superb investments. Bodily, Watson has all of the instruments to excel within the NFL. He has nice dimension and nice velocity. He proved himself sufficient as a rookie to anticipate pure second-year development.
Reed continues to be a rookie, and I don’t imagine Doubs is an NFL-caliber beginning receiver. He initiatives extra as a rotational WR3/4. Watson, in the meantime, seems like an alpha, and I imagine he’ll be handled as such.
In fantasy soccer, we, as managers, have to make predictions. That’s what we’re doing right here — predicting the longer term.
With Watson, my prediction is he goes on to be an excellent NFL receiver. I don’t know if the highest 12 is within the playing cards for him anytime quickly, however given his efficiency as a rookie and the monitor document of 12 months 2 receivers, I might wager towards Watson ending exterior the highest 24 of fantasy extensive receivers in 2023.
