Cody Bellinger Returns to the Cubs

For as sturdy as his 2023 marketing campaign had been, and for as effectively positioned as he was on this winter’s market, Cody Bellinger‘s free company was all the time hampered by questions of sustainability. His debut season with the Cubs adopted two unsettlingly unhealthy years with the Dodgers, and the metrics underlying final season’s resurgence have been comparatively modest relative to his manufacturing, elevating the likelihood if not the chance of regression. In gentle of these points, whilst he positioned third on our Prime 50 Free Brokers listing heading into the offseason and reportedly sought a contract as excessive as $250 million, it appeared fairly probably he’d come away with significantly much less. He did, agreeing to return to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal, one which incorporates opt-outs after the primary two seasons, and one which was nonetheless pending a bodily as of this writing.

Successfully, this can be a pillow contract, negotiated by the agent who created the time period, Scott Boras. The 28-year-old Bellinger will get the chance to indicate that his 2023 efficiency was no fluke, with two possibilities earlier than his age-30 season to safe a a lot larger payday. He’s assured $30 million in 2024, with salaries of $30 million in ’25 and $20 million in ’26 if he hasn’t exercised his opt-outs, based on ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Bellinger got here to the Cubs after an eventful 10-year run within the Dodgers’ group, one which started when the son of former utilityman Clay Bellinger was drafted within the fourth spherical out of an Arizona highschool in 2013. He hit 39 house runs whereas profitable NL Rookie of the 12 months honors in 2017, and smacked 47 homers two years later whereas taking house the NL MVP award. His well timed hitting and spectacular fielding through the 2020 postseason helped the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988, however a type of well timed hits precipitated his fall. Celebrating what proved to be the decisive house run in Recreation 7 of the 2020 NLCS towards the Braves, the exuberant Bellinger dislocated his proper (non-throwing) shoulder after bashing forearms with teammate Enrique Hernández. He underwent arthroscopic labrum surgical procedure after the World Sequence, began slowly in spring coaching, after which within the fourth recreation of the season suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula, knocking him out for eight weeks. Unable to search out his rhythm as he recovered from each shoulder and leg points, he hit a ugly .165/.240/.302 (47 wRC+) with -1.0 WAR in 350 plate appearances, although he confirmed indicators of life through the playoffs when he adopted a shortened swing with decrease hand placement; he hit .353/.436/.471 (146 wRC+) throughout 39 plate appearances in 12 postseason video games. Whereas he acquired off to a stable begin in 2022, he couldn’t preserve it regardless of endlessly tinkering together with his swing. Distinctive protection in middle subject saved him within the lineup, however he hit simply .210/.265/.389 (83 wRC+) with 1.8 WAR, and was nontendered following the season.

Lower than three weeks later, Bellinger agreed to a one-year take care of the Cubs, one which paid him $12.5 million for 2023 with a $1 million bonus for profitable NL Comeback Participant of the 12 months honors (which he did) and a $5 million buyout on a $25 million mutual choice for ’24. He declined his finish of the choice in addition to the $20.325 million qualifying supply he acquired, and entered the market as the highest free agent place participant, behind solely pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on our listing.

For Bellinger, final 12 months’s change of surroundings proved to be simply what the physician ordered. Reuniting with Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly and assistant Johnny Washington, each of whom he had labored with within the Dodgers’ system, Bellinger centered on adjusting his mechanics, notably with reference to his hand placement and again hip, permitting him to make use of his decrease physique higher. He additional tailored his strategy by pulling the ball with much less frequency than at any time since his rookie season, and shortening his swing with two strikes to deal with contact. The end result was his greatest season since 2019, as he hit .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 video games — he missed almost 4 weeks with a left knee contusion — whereas chopping his strikeout price from 27.3% to fifteen.6%. Coupled with stable protection in middle subject, his 4.1 WAR tied for Twentieth within the NL and was the second-best exhibiting of his profession.

Bellinger’s intent is price noting when digging into his underlying metrics, as he sacrificed some energy in change for contact en path to the bottom exit velocity, barrel price, and hard-hit price of his profession:

Bellinger’s barrel price positioned in simply the twenty seventh percentile, his exit velo within the twenty second percentile, and his hard-hit price within the tenth percentile. He outdid his anticipated slugging proportion by 91 factors, and his anticipated wOBA by 43 factors; each gaps ranked third within the majors amongst batting title qualifiers (502 PA). Then again, his .279 AVG and .312 wOBA with two strikes ranked second and seventh within the majors, thanks largely to his consistency in amassing hits regardless of delicate contact, a subject that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and our personal Esteban Rivera each investigated.

All of that created one thing of a puzzle for Bellinger’s suitors — most prominently the Blue Jays (thought of the favorites to signal him as of mid-December) and Giants, with the Mariners and Yankees additionally related to him by way of rumors. Bellinger’s deal all the time appeared unlikely to strategy the new air of the $200 million-plus Borasphere, however in our Prime 50 train, Ben Clemens projected him to get a six-year, $150 million contract, and our crowdsource anticipated a six-year, $144 million one. Different retailers went even greater.

Because the Blue Jays dragged their toes this winter, the Giants turned to Jung Hoo Lee, and the Cubs refused to behave like a large-market workforce, Bellinger’s anticipated market by no means totally materialized, with the aforementioned points undoubtedly enjoying a component, as effectively. By ZiPS, he did effectively to get as a lot as he did:

ZiPS initiatives only a three-year, $70 million contract for that forecast, per Dan Szymborski, although maybe that’s not stunning on condition that Bellinger has had only one good season out of the final three. Based mostly on the percentile breakdowns, it seems the system offers him solely a few 10% to twenty% probability of matching or exceeding final 12 months’s efficiency:

Bellinger in all probability doesn’t must match his 2023 numbers to justify opting out, and he does have two possibilities to resolve when to enter the market once more. Nonetheless, a mediocre 2024 adopted by a robust ’25 would in all probability depart groups with comparable inquiries to those they confronted this winter.

As for a way he matches into the Cubs, the important thing phrase is flexibility. The workforce already had Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, each getting into their age-29 seasons and on multi-year offers, set for the outfield corners. Previous to Bellinger’s re-signing, Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Twentieth-ranked prospect on our Prime 100 listing, appeared prone to take over because the Chicago’s common middle fielder. A 2020 first-round decide acquired from the Mets within the Javier Báez commerce on the ’21 deadline, Crow-Armstrong hit a mixed .283/.365/.511 (127 wRC+) in 73 video games at Double-A Tennessee and 34 video games at Triple-A Iowa. He went simply 0-for-14 with three walks and two sacrifice hits in a cup of espresso with the Cubs, although to be honest, he began simply three of the 13 video games through which he appeared. He’s thought of an elite middle fielder who’s fearless on the basepaths and may produce a minimum of common energy. “If he can plug that gap over time, he’ll be a five-tool celebrity,” wrote our prospect workforce of Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin. “Extra probably, he’ll have some 20-25 homer seasons amid a ton of strikeouts and a low OBP, with peak years resembling Mike Cameron’s (although virtually definitely to not that stage of annual consistency).”

Given Crow-Armstrong’s age (he turns 22 on March 25) and modest quantity of upper-level expertise, it all the time appeared attainable that he would begin the season within the minors earlier than rejoining the Cubs. Now it will seem much more probably. If he hits his approach again to the majors in a rush, the Cubs may use him in middle subject and play Bellinger at first base, the place lefty-swinging rookie Michael Busch was slated to be the starter or a minimum of the lengthy half of a platoon with righty Patrick Knowledge. The 26-year-old Busch, no. 84 on our prospect listing, is taken into account a bat-only prospect who final performed first base repeatedly at North Carolina, and who could also be higher suited to DH obligation. Alternately, Bellinger has expertise in each left subject (315.1 innings, although none since 2018) and proper (989 innings, the majority of them in 2019), and Happ has expertise at each defensive place besides shortstop and catcher, although he hasn’t performed the infield since 2021, when he totaled 36 innings, largely at second base. Additionally within the class of shifting components is Christopher Morel, who final 12 months noticed time in any respect three outfield positions plus second base, shortstop, and third base; he was projected to get the majority of the work at DH but in addition to be within the third base combine together with Nick Madrigal. Suffice to say that new supervisor Craig Counsell can have choices for the right way to piece his lineup collectively, and {that a} clearer image might emerge throughout spring coaching.

Through our Depth Charts projections, right here’s a comparability of how the scenario appeared earlier than the signing and instantly after, when it comes to estimated plate appearances:

When it comes to general enjoying time, the actual loser of the Bellinger deal is Mike Tauchman, a succesful middle fielder who hit .252/.363/.377 (107 wRC+) final 12 months, with Crow-Armstrong, Madrigal, and Knowledge additionally shedding substantial time. Remember that all of that is based mostly on greatest guesses simply as exhibition season has opened, and earlier than the Cubs have even confirmed the deal. So much may nonetheless change.

Significantly with the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, and Reds every projected to win between 79 and 85 video games, the NL Central is anticipated to be a dogfight. Any impactful addition may very well be the distinction between reaching the postseason — one thing the Cubs haven’t completed since 2020 — and staying house. By bringing again Bellinger, the workforce has given itself a greater shot at enjoying in October with out assuming an enormous long-term danger. Bellinger, for his half, will get to return to a cushty scenario with a contending workforce, whereas additionally figuring out that he can play his approach into an even bigger contract. Will probably be fascinating to see how this all unfolds.