Christian Walker Is Having a Righteous Walk Year

He is probably not enjoying in Arlington tonight, however Christian Walker simply wrapped up an All-Star stage first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman got here into the All-Star break ranked third within the Nationwide League with 22 residence runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the many prime 15 certified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most amongst NL fielders, whereas his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and eight FRV are all the highest marks at his place. Due to his spectacular defensive efficiency, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the one certified NL first baseman who has offered optimistic defensive worth at first regardless of the hefty positional adjustment. On prime of that, he has performed in all 97 of Arizona’s video games to date, placing him on tempo for greater than 700 plate appearances this season.

Add his offense, protection, and sturdiness collectively and also you get 2.9 WAR, which locations Walker within the prime 15 amongst NL place gamers and prime 30 within the majors. Contemplating that 46 place gamers have been invited to the Midsummer Traditional this 12 months, it’s arduous to disclaim that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. On the identical time, it’s additionally arduous to get too fired to up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully incomes the 2 assured spots for first basemen on the NL roster. As well as, three NL gamers with extra WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star circumstances than Walker have been additionally left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames. Lastly, this isn’t even probably the most disappointing time Walker has missed out on a visit again to Globe Life Subject inside the previous 10 months. Nonetheless, it’s a disgrace that Walker’s glorious first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years previous, the late bloomer is placing collectively the most effective season of his profession on the plate and within the discipline. Absolutely, that deserves to be celebrated.

At this level, Walker is used to being underestimated. He has been a regression candidate because the second he first tasted massive league success. Following his breakout rookie season in 2019 (111 wRC+, 3.0 WAR) ZiPS projected a step again in ’20; as Dan Szymborski put it, “The projections aren’t fully offered on Christian Walker, nonetheless seeing him as a league-average first baseman.”

It’s not obscure why ZiPS was skeptical of Walker. At 29 years previous, he had just one profitable main league season beneath his belt, and no projection system might anticipate him to keep up his ridiculous defensive numbers at first base. ZiPS wasn’t flawed, both, as he took a big step again in 2020 and a fair larger step again in ’21. Thus, the system was nonetheless skeptical of Walker after his second breakout season in 2022. Though Walker slugged 36 residence runs, led first basemen with 14 OAA, and completed with 4.0 WAR, Dan included him on his listing of ZiPS bust hitters getting into 2023, describing him as “clearly not a star, only a good league-average first baseman coming off a peak 12 months.” But, lo and behold, Walker virtually completely replicated his 2022 season in ’23. He completed with a 120 wRC+ and three.9 WAR, whereas deservedly profitable his second Gold Glove in as a few years. To be clear, I don’t convey this as much as dunk on ZiPS, however quite to show what number of instances Walker has exceeded expectations in his uncommon profession.

Certainly, ZiPS underestimated Walker as soon as once more heading into 2024; he has already surpassed his preseason 2.7 WAR projection in accordance with ZiPS Depth Charts. Nonetheless, the truth that projection techniques (and ZiPS is hardly the one one) maintain promoting Walker brief is a characteristic, not a bug. A superb projection system isn’t going to anticipate a career-best efficiency from a participant as he enters his mid-30s. Projections techniques are constructed on historic comps, and Walker has defied the standard development of a significant league profession. In his age-33 season, he’s on tempo for career-highs in plate appearances, video games performed, residence runs, RBI, runs scored, wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+, OAA, FRV, and WAR:

When Walker spoke to David Laurila forward of the 2023 season, he defined how “knowledge and arduous numbers” have helped him belief his course of throughout tough stretches. Lacking out on an All-Star nod amid what could possibly be the most effective season of his profession is unquestionably disappointing, however so long as he focuses on the information and arduous numbers, he must be nothing however happy along with his first-half efficiency.

Underlying Walker’s career-best 131 wRC+ is a career-best 103.4 EV50 (the typical exit velocity of the toughest 50% of his batted balls) and a career-best 36.3% sweet-spot fee, leading to a career-best 15.7% barrel fee. He has additionally elevated his pull fee and lowered his reverse discipline fee on fly balls. Actually, practically all of his extra-base hits have been pulled this 12 months, which stands out in comparison with final 12 months, when he sprayed the ball to all fields:

This could possibly be a warning signal that Walker is promoting out to drag extra fastballs as he ages. Nonetheless, I’m not seeing many different indications of age-related decline. His bat velocity is elite (92nd percentile), and his whiff fee stays primarily unchanged from final season. Furthermore, he has finished extra harm on curveballs (+4 run worth, per Baseball Savant), changeups (+4), and sweepers (+4) than he has on all different pitches this season. That’s not what you’d anticipate from a hitter sitting fastball.

That stated, Walker is hanging out noticeably extra usually this season (25.2%) than he did in 2023 (19.2%), to the purpose that no certified NL batter has seen a bigger improve in strikeout fee. Nonetheless, it’s arduous to fret an excessive amount of about this growth after taking a look at Walker’s underlying plate self-discipline knowledge. Each his whiff fee (misses as a share of swings) and his swinging-strike fee (swings and misses as a share of all pitches) are ever so barely down from final season. So is his chase fee. What’s extra, his first-pitch strike fee is down from 60.2% to 55.7%. Solely three certified NL batters have seen a decrease fee of first-pitch strikes this season, and no NL batter has began extra plate appearances forward within the rely. As you’d anticipate, Walker has finished fairly effectively for himself when he begins out 1-0, posting a 186 wRC+. Sadly, he has been worse than in previous years when he will get into an 0-1 gap (75 wRC+). However that’s been occurring much less usually, so the tradeoff definitely appears to be price it.

All that is to say, I’m inclined to consider Walker’s rising strikeout fee is the results of aware decision-making on the plate quite than an incapability to maintain up with opposing pitchers. Take into account this: Walker has been way more prone to whiff with two strikes this season than he was in 2022 or ’23, but his wOBA, xwOBA, and run worth in two-strike counts are all greater this 12 months than in another full season. My apologies if you happen to’re bored with studying about all of the methods during which Walker is having a career-best season, however you’re going to need to take that up with the person himself.

As luck would have it, Walker is having fun with this glorious season along with his first foray into free company on the horizon. Thus, his title has come up in a little bit of commerce hypothesis; earlier this month, Jon Heyman known as Walker the Astros’ “dream goal” forward of the deadline. It appears unlikely that the reigning NL champs would promote this summer season, particularly not now that they’re again above .500 and only a recreation behind the Mets for the ultimate wild card spot, nevertheless it’s price mentioning that on July 1 normal supervisor Mike Hazen wouldn’t commit to purchasing when requested about his deadline plans. Maybe the truth that his group has gone 8-5 since his feedback has modified his thoughts, however then once more, a dropping streak after the All-Star break might swing the pendulum again in the wrong way. Even when the Diamondbacks don’t purchase on the deadline, I’d anticipate them to face pat. Their greatest guess could possibly be to hope that Corbin Carroll turns his season round and veteran starters Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Merrill Kelly return robust and wholesome from the IL. Nonetheless, if issues go particularly poorly within the 10 video games between the All-Star break and the deadline, maybe Hazen may be swayed by a powerful sufficient supply for Walker. In any case, Walker could possibly be the most effective rental and one of many few affect bats out there on a vendor’s market.

Nonetheless, the extra doubtless final result is that Walker stays with the D-backs come July 31. In that case, the group will certainly lengthen him a qualifying supply after the season, and he’ll virtually absolutely decline, setting himself as much as take a look at free company for the primary time.

I discover it greater than a bit of irritating {that a} participant who made his MLB debut at 23 years previous in 2014 won’t turn into a free agent till the 2024-25 offseason, forward of his age-34 marketing campaign. Most gamers in an analogous state of affairs would have misplaced their peak incomes years to the substitute constraints of the arbitration system. Nonetheless, in Walker’s uncommon case, he may simply be reaching free company on the excellent second. Throughout spring coaching, he instructed The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro how proud he’s to really feel like he’ll have authentic leverage to wield as a free agent: “It’s a way of accomplishment… We have now the ball in our court docket. It hasn’t at all times felt that approach.” And that was earlier than he put collectively the most effective first-half efficiency of his profession.

Christian Walker won’t be an All-Star, however he’s enjoying the most effective baseball of his profession, and he’s setting himself up properly without spending a dime company this winter.